[閒聊] Re-rank the O-Rank

[AboveTheRim (尚未通過身分認證 )]

之前小弟一直很好奇YAHOO預設的O-rank
不知道是依據何種ranking methodology來排的
(可能是按去年Rank  再加上FB那些專家的主觀微調吧)

而YAHOO的Ranking methodolody似乎也沒公佈
搞得好像黑箱作業一樣

所以不少新手會在中後段不知道要選誰的時候
就會直接參考O-rank
當然   老手往往就是可以從這些地方"偷"到被低估的選手

剛好本身是學統計的
運用簡單的工具自創了一個rank給版眾參考
順便拋磚引玉
看能不能激發更多數量化方式的評估選手方法

http://www.badongo.com/file/13465567

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先貼top 100
(U for under-rated, O for over-rated in O-Rank)

Player          Pos           O-Rank  R-Rank  evaluation
Álex Rodríguez  (NYY - 3B)       2       1
Hanley Ramírez  (Fla - SS)       1       2
David Wright    (NYM - 3B)       5       3
Matt Holliday   (Oak - OF)      36       4      U+
Albert Pujols   (StL - 1B)       3       5
Lance Berkman   (Hou - 1B)      18       6
Chase Utley     (Phi - 2B)      22       7      U
José Reyes      (NYM - SS)       4       8
CC Sabathia     (NYY - SP)      27       9      U
Carlos Beltrán  (NYM - OF)      19      10
Mariano Rivera  (NYY - RP)      74      11      U+
Manny Ramírez   (LAD - OF) NA   29      12     U
Johan Santana   (NYM - SP)      17      13
Ryan Howard     (Phi - 1B)      10      14
J.Papelbon      (Bos - RP)      50      15      U+
Ryan Dempster   (ChC - SP)     149      16      U+
Russell Martin  (LAD - C,3B)    41      17      U
Grady Sizemore  (Cle - OF)       6      18
Ryan Braun      (Mil - OF)       8      19
Roy Halladay    (Tor - SP)      58      20      U+
Miguel Cabrera  (Det - 1B,3B)    7      21      O
Chipper Jones   (Atl - 3B)      65      22      U+
Tim Lincecum    (SF - SP)       21      23
Jimmy Rollins   (Phi - SS)      12      24
Magglio Ordóñe  (Det - OF)      62      25    U+
Brandon Webb    (Ari - SP)      46      26      U
Joe Nathan      (Min - RP)      72      27      U+
Josh Hamilton   (Tex - OF)       9      28      O
Mark Teixeira   (NYY - 1B)      13      29      O
Bobby Abreu     (LAA - OF)      94      30      U+
Jake Peavy      (SD - SP)       48      31      U
Dustin Pedroia  (Bos - 2B)      24      32
F.Rodrígu z    (NYM - RP)       79      33     U+
Rich Harden     (ChC - SP)      96      34      U+
Cole Hamels     (Phi - SP)      45      35
Dan Haren       (Ari - SP)      59      36      U
José Valverde   (Hou - RP)     126      37     U+
Nick Markakis   (Bal - OF)      35      38
Brian Roberts   (Bal - 2B)      38      39
Joakim Soria    (KC - RP)       99      40      U+
Ian Kinsler     (Tex - 2B) DL   11      41      O+
Carlos Lee      (Hou - OF)      26      42      O
Prince Fielder  (Mil - 1B)      20      43      O
Vlad. Guerrero  (LAA - OF)      32      44
Ichiro Suzuki   (Sea - OF)      34      45
Cliff Lee       (Cle - SP)      91      46      U+
Brandon Phillips(Cin - 2B) DL   25      47      O
Ryan Ludwick    (StL - OF)      83      48      U+
Álex Ríos       (Tor - OF)      43      49
Kevin Youkilis  (Bos - 1B,3B)   40      50
Adrián Gonzále  (SD - 1B)       49      51
C.Granderson    (Det - OF)      42      52
Aramis Ramírez  (ChC - 3B)      39      53      O
Jose Arredondo  (LAA - RP)     305      54      U+
Brian McCann    (Atl - C)       44      55
Takashi Saito   (Bos - RP)     303      56      U+
Ricky Nolasco   (Fla - SP)     136      57      U+
Brad Lidge      (Phi - RP)      81      58      U
Nate McLouth    (Pit - OF)      55      59
Alfonso Soriano (ChC - OF)      16      60      O+
Aubrey Huff     (Bal - 1B,3B)   77      61      U
Justin Morneau  (Min - 1B)      30      62      O+
Jason Bay       (Bos - OF)      31      63      O+
Joe Mauer       (Min - C)       52      64
Dan Uggla       (Fla - 2B)      71      65
Josh Beckett    (Bos - SP)      75      66
Kelvim Escobar  (LAA - SP) DL  314      67      U+
Torii Hunter    (LAA - OF)      113     68      U+
Matt Kemp       (LAD - OF)      37      69      O+
Derrek Lee      (ChC - 1B)      95      70      U+
J.J. Putz       (NYM - RP)     318      71      U+
Joey Devine     (Oak - RP)     237      72      U+
Roy Oswalt      (Hou - SP)      98      73      U+
Carlos Mármol   (ChC - RP)     121      74     U+
John Smoltz     (Bos - SP)     231      75      U+
Kerry Wood      (Cle - RP)     140      76      U+
Johnny Damon    (NYY - OF)     116      77      U+
Ted Lilly       (ChC - SP)     190      78      U+
James Shields   (TB - SP)       97      79      U
Edinson Vólquez (Cin - SP)     117      80     U+
A.J. Burnett    (NYY - SP)     105      81      U
Jermaine Dye    (CWS - OF)      76      82
Geovany Soto    (ChC - C)       54      83      O+
Chad Billingsley(LAD - SP)      73      84
Michael Young   (Tex - SS)      80      85
Adam Dunn       (Was - 1B,OF)   66      86      O
Shane Victorino (Phi - OF)      47      87      O+
Raúl Ibañez     (Phi - OF)     122      88    U+
B.J. Upton      (TB - OF)       14      89      O+
Jhonny Peralta  (Cle - SS)     109      90      U
Daisuke Matsuzaka(Bos - SP)    114      91      U
Garrett Atkins  (Col - 1B,3B)   64      92      O+
Bobby Jenks     (CWS - RP)     110      93      U
Carlos Delgado  (NYM - 1B)     119      94      U+
Francisco Cordero(Cin - RP)    144      95      U+
Billy Wagner    (NYM - RP)     302      96      U+
Justin Duchscherer(Oak - SP)   211      97      U+
Corey Hart      (Mil - OF)      56      98      O+
John Lackey     (LAA - SP)      85      99      O
Derek Jeter     (NYY - SS)      89     100

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top 100中看起來比較奇怪的是57 Jose Arredondo
什麼RP咖竟然可以排上前100

查看原始數據去年竟然有10W
像這種都是中繼撿到的勝投   而且取樣又只有2年
就當作是統計上的誤差吧 orz

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下一步:
跑個層級貝氏來模擬預測09年成績好了 (如果有時間整理數據的話 orz)


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◆ From: 114.43.198.48
推 newseastar:先推一個! 以後可以出一個ptt版的FB!!!XD
推 shome:少把一項算進去 球場因素, 如果要預測這點個人覺得蠻重要的
推 shome:Matt Holliday去年O-Rank很高,但今年下山..O-rank變36..
推 KKyosuke:我覺得你把去年數據看的過重
推 pika751106:O-rank跟年齡也有關好像
推 shome:還是感謝原PO的初步分析.光整理數據就很討厭 想到就懶惰了:P
推 Ayukawayen:ORank這三年做得相當不錯 所以屠殺外國人越來越難了 XD
推 stk11:Cabrera的rank讓我滿訝異的@@
→ mapletree:我CC拿去交易到假日 照你這個看起來好像是虧@@
→ mapletree:但也沒虧太大  算了~出清洋基球員讓對方賺一點沒差
推 kevinloo:O-Rank是按照5X5 所以SU不會在O-Rank top 100
推 KBchen:沒有龍哥～
→ kevinloo:Escobar會不會太誇張阿
→ kevinloo:NYM三個RP都出現 = =
→ AboveTheRim:因為艾絲摳八前年成績太塞雷了  去年沒出賽
→ AboveTheRim:所以數據是直接抓到前年 -_-"