以下三篇原是一篇
有點長不過蠻好看的
(還有Rusedski已經退賽了)
來源:
http://www.tennisnews.com/index.php3
Men's Look Forward: Doha, Adelaide, Chennai
And so the farce -- er, Race -- starts again.
The theory of the Race, of course, is that it means the so-called
"#1" spot changes hands more often. Certainly it's likely to change
hands at least once this month. We know that the winner of the
Australian Open is all but guaranteed to be #1 when it's over, for
instance, and he probably won't have been #1 beforehand.
But we know with even greater certainty that the winner of Doha will
be #1 next week.
Which, in turn, means that #1 seed Roger Federer has a good shot at
briefly taking that top spot. Though it won't be easy. He'll face
tough opposition -- and, potentially, a lot of his countrymen. He
opens against Jan-Michael Gambill. Gambill slumped last year, but
hardcourts are his surface; he might just be able to make some noise
here. After that, Federer will probably face countryman Michel
Kratochvil, who opens against a wildcard.
Federer might possibly see another Swiss in the quarterfinal, though
it seems a rather poorer bet. Ivo Heuberger will open against #5 seed
Greg Rusedski. Rusedski's health is shaky, but when he's healthy, he's
a lot better player than Heuberger. It will be interesting to see just
how much the injury has taken out of him. The winner will play either
fastcourt-loving Raemon Sluiter or slowcourt-loving David Ferrer (with
the surface perhaps favoring Ferrer). Given the circumstances, Ferrer
might even be able to make it to the quarterfinal.
#2 seed Albert Costa has a far kinder draw, populated with fellow
clay-courters. Costa has a lot to defend come this clay season; a good
start here could be big once Roland Garros rolls around. And his draw
will help: He opens against Andrea Gaudenzi, then either Karim Alami or
a qualifier. Which means he can't play a Top 100 player until the
quarterfinal. Though his quarterfinal opponent will be a real threat.
The seed is #7 Nicolas Escude, who prefers his courts faster but who has
more talent than he actually uses most days. Escude opens against Stefan
Koubek, who didn't do well in the warmups to the Australian Open last year
(he in fact managed to lose in the first round of Doha to the injured
Goran Ivanisevic), but who did very well at Melbourne; he just might
trouble Escude. And the winner will face either big-serving, and
much-improved, Vladimir Voltchkov or hardcourt-loving Hyung-Taik Lee.
Costa should make the quarterfinal. But the winner of the quarterfinal
is anyone's guess.
Younes El Aynaoui is the #3 seed. He's also the defending champion, and
these points are a big part of what's keeping him in the Top 25. He, too,
has a difficult and countryman-laden draw. He opens against Julien Boutter,
which is a much tougher start than he faced last year. Boutter slipped a
little in 2002 from his prime in 2001 (perhaps age is getting to him), and
this court is a bit slow for him -- but his serve always makes him a threat.
And after that, El Aynaoui faces either a qualifier or countryman Hicham
Arazi. Arazi had a purely dreadful year last year, but he's better than his
results showed.
If the seeds were to hold, the quarterfinal could be a shotmaker's dream as
El Aynaoui would take on #8 seed Fabrice Santoro. But Santoro has to survive
Felix Mantilla to make that rematch. And Mantilla was last year's finalist,
so he has a lot on the line. About a quarter of his points, in fact; a bad
result could drop the Spaniard to about #75. That too could be a very
interesting match. The winner should have an easier time in the next round,
as he faces either Yves Allegro (another Swiss! -- but at #232 perhaps not a
major threat) or a qualifier.
The #4 seed is Yevgeny Kafelnikov, officially unretired and looking to end a
long string of frustration at this tournament. It will be interesting to see
how Kafelnikov has recovered from his 2002 problems. Will what was almost a
career-ending year get him back in form, or will he add further embarrassment
in 2003? At least his early rounds aren't too bad; he starts against clay
expert Fernando Vicente, then a qualifier or Kenneth Carlsen. The quarterfinal
is more interesting as he is seeded to face Mikhail Youzhny. Youzhny is one of
Kafelnikov's little projects -- but, in the Davis Cup final, the Russians let
Youzhny, not Kafelnikov, play the decisive match. Interesting vibes there. And
Youzhny shouldn't have too much trouble getting through; he opens against David
Sanchez, then Radek Stepanek or Feliciano Lopez. Though Stepanek has reason to
remember this place fondly: Last year, he won five straight matches here,
qualifying and reaching the quarterfinal before losing to Mantilla.
--
France's bright young thing.
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.csie.ntu.edu.tw)
◆ From: 218.187.32.49