本週賽事分析

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Men's Look Forward: Week of March 3
Posted on 3/2/2003 at 7:48 PM
www.tennisnews.com

Men's Look Forward: Scottsdale, Delray Beach


For once it's Andre Agassi's turn. He'll actually be losing some rankings ground
 on Lleyton Hewitt.

Not as much as he should, though, perhaps. This week is one of those strange
mysteries: Why is Scottsdale so strong and Delray Beach so weak?(沒錯，這是我看
到籤表的第一個反應) Both are hardcourt events, both feature the same prize money
 and points -- but the one makes the other look like a Challenger. Scottsdale
features both Hewitt (who took a wildcard, perhaps out of concern for his
ranking) and Agassi, plus #3 seed David Nalbandian, #4 Paradorn Srichaphan,
#5 Rainer Schuettler, #6 Alex Corretja, #7 Juan Ignacio Chela, and #8 Xavier
Malisse. Several very significant players -- Wayne Ferreira, Andrei Pavel, James
 Blake, Thomas Enqvist -- are unseeded.

Delray Beach has Andy Roddick, but the #2 seed is Guillermo Coria. In other
words, the #2 seed at Delray Beach would not have been seeded at Scottsdale.
Coria, in fact, would have been the #3 unseeded player at Scottsdale. It's true
that Scottsdale is in the same time zone as Indian Wells, but Delray Beach is
only three time zones away, and it's the same zone as Miami; a player could play
 Delray Beach and hope not to play late matches at Indian Wells. Obviously
Scottsdale just offers something more.

Still, there are good matches at both. It's just that the big news will all be
at Scottsdale. (Assuming the rain that plagued the women's event clears up,
anyway.) This is where Agassi and Hewitt will play the next round of their
contest for #1, and where we will get our first real look at a lot of players'
hardcourt form.

Scottsdale is good enough that it's probably best to look at each seed's path to
 the quarterfinal. Starting, of course, with #1 Lleyton Hewitt. Who really
hasn't lived up to his standing so far this year; he isn't even Top Ten in the
Race. It probably won't matter in the first round, when he plays clay-loving
Fernando Vicente. In the second -- .it just might get interesting. Hewitt will
face the winner of Wayne Ferreira vs. Wayne Arthurs. Given how much Ferreira
likes to eat big servers, it's likely to be Ferreira. Hewitt isn't exactly
Ferreira's ideal opponent -- but Hewitt isn't playing like himself, either.

#2 seed Agassi will face two interesting challenges. First is Thomas Enqvist.
Enqvist hasn't looked right this year -- but every match has to help. One of
these days, he's likely to be a threat again. Still, Agassi's chances look good.
 The next round is likely to be even tougher, since he'll face James Blake (or a
 qualifier). Blake has shown that he can beat Agassi on a hardcourt. Can he do
it consistently?

#3 seed Nalbandian has a lot of clay in his quarter. He'll open against Agustin
Calleri, just off his first title -- but he'll probably be tired, and he won't
have had any chance to adjust to hardcourt. After that Nalbandian would face
either another clay-court loving Argentine, Franco Squillari, or Davide
Sanguinetti. Sanguinetti was last year's Delray Beach winner; don't ask us why
he decided to play the tougher event this year. But he loves this time of year;
he just might be a threat.

#4 Paradorn Srichaphan has been a bit up and down this year. Given that he's
well-rested, this draw might help get him back up. He opens against a qualifier,
 then a clay-courter, either David Sanchez or struggling Nicolas Massu.

#5 Rainer Schuettler is in Agassi's quarter, and his chances to set up a rematch
 of the Australian Open final look pretty good. He starts against a qualifier,
then either Robby Ginepri (who brings many of the same tools to the court that
Schuettler does) or Mariano Zabaleta, who likes clay anyway and will be tired
from Acapulco.

#6 Alex Corretja also starts against a qualifier, then either Arnaud di Pascuale
 or Luis Horna. This truly will be a good test of Corretja. Though it may not
lead to much, since he faces Hewitt in the quarterfinal.

#7 Juan Ignacio Chela is going to face a real change from the clay he's been
experiencing lately, since he starts against Mark Philippoussis. Next up will be
 Jonas Bjorkman (or a qualifier). Bjorkman has been having a pretty good year,
but that was indoors. This will be a rather neutral surface. But neither has had
 much practice on it. The winner could face Nalbandian -- and that could be a
very interesting match.

#8 seed Xavier Malisse starts against Cecil Maamit, who just barely made it into
 the draw. The second round, against Andrei Pavel or Taylor Dent, will be very
interesting indeed. As will the quarter against Srichaphan.

The organizers at Delray Beach had to wonder what they did to deserve this. The
two hottest young Americans in the field -- arguably the biggest draws in the
whole tournament -- face each other in the first round as #1 seed Andy Roddick
squares off against Mardy Fish...It's among the best first round matches even if
 you ignore the fact that they're from the host country. Others that look
interesting:

Kratochvil vs. (5) Clement. Both players like hardcourts, and both have suffered
 after some very good results a year or two ago. Both have shown signs of
breaking out. Frankly, we'd say Kratochvil is in better shape right now. But
it's hard to know who will keep that up when it counts.

Kiefer vs. (4) Gambill. If Kiefer can ever find his game again, he qualifies as
perhaps the second-best hardcourt player in the field. Will that be enough to
threaten Gambill?

Perhaps the most interesting second round match would be that between #2 seed
Guillermo Coria, who likes clay and opens against Sargis Sargsian, and Vladimir
Voltchkov, who likes anything fast and opens against Alex Kim. It will be a
contrast of very different strengths on a relatively neutral surface.

The real question, though, is, "Can anyone here stop Roddick?" If anyone can,
it's probably #3 seed Marcelo Rios, who opens against Jeff Morrison, then Martin
 Verkerk or a qualifier, then Clement (or Kratochvil, or possibly Hyung-Taik Lee
). That's a fairly interesting quarterfinal, and it leads to an interesting
semi against Roddick. It's not likely that Roddick will lose before that -- not
when Raemon Sluiter is the other seed in his quarter. The bottom half, with #2
seed Coria, #4 Gambill, #7 Stefan Koubek, and #8 Vincent Spadea, is a lot harder
 to predict.

The Rankings. This week's rankings really don't matter much; they will come out
too late to seed Indian Wells, and because Miami doesn't start until late the
week after, the post-Indian Wells rankings will be used there. The only real
significance of these rankings (other than boasting rights) will be for the
handful of players here who won't make the Miami main draw. But the outcome
could be important in the race to #1. Coming in, Hewitt led Agassi by 135 points
. Agassi has 175 points to defend; Hewitt has nothing. So Hewitt's lead going
into Indian Wells will be no less than 135 points, and might be on the order of
400 -- if he wins Scottsdale and Agassi loses first round. No matter what the
outcome, Agassi will go into Indian Wells with a lead in safe points.

The other people with rankings concerns are Delray Beach champion Davide
Sanguinetti, who is likely to sink like a stone, and Scottsdale finalist Juan
Balcells, who is no longer Top 100 and is playing qualifying this week. He's
going to sink like a stone wearing cement overshoes.

--
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