Double or Nothing (DON) Guide PART 1: PRE-GAME

[Goal (Full Tilt Poker)]

Double or Nothing (DON) Guide PART 1: PRE-GAME
DON指南　第一部：牌局前

Nakamura
Post Posted: Mon, 12 Oct 2009, 11:08am
http://0rz.tw/gVaBK

INTRODUCTION
Disclaimer: This series is going be quite long, there is a lot to digest and
I don’t intend that you read it all in one go. It's probably best to read it
in several short sections. To help you, I am splitting the guide into several
smaller threads, which will be posted in due course. The hands used in this
post are real hands I have been involved in. I have sometimes taken a little
artistic license and changed some of the specifics to illustrate the point a
bit clearer, but usually the hands are unedited. I am intentionally vague in
some of the later sections. I would say it’s impossible to write a guide
that says “do this when you have AKs etc.” because this depends to a
greater or lesser extent on the table specifics, such as stack sizes and
opponent tendencies. Rather, I have chosen to write about things I consider
when I make decisions.
前言
聲明：這個系列的篇幅會相當長，有很多東西要去理解，而且我不算讓你一次讀完全部。
每次讀一個部份可能比較好。我會把這篇指南分割成幾個小章節，刊登成適當地課程。
裡面使用到的例子都是我真實碰上的。我有時候會改變一些細節好把重點解釋得更清楚，
但是通常這些例子都是沒修改過的。我有意地模糊化一些部份。我不可能會寫出"你拿到
AKs就這樣做啊"之類的指南。因為這都憑據牌桌上重要的或次要的細節，像是籌碼數以
及對手的傾向。此外，我會寫出當我做一個決定時是如何思考的。

I have written this post as a guide to ‘Double or Nothing’ tournaments
(DONs). DON tournaments are usually single table sit-and-go tournaments where
half the field doubles up and the rest go home with nothing. If you are
unfamiliar with the basics of these tournaments, I highly recommend you read
Kevster’s Introduction to Double or Nothings, which gives a great general
introduction.
我曾經寫過DON指南。DON通常是單桌SNG，一半的人拿到加倍的錢，剩下的人空手
而回。如果你不太熟悉這些tournament的基本概念，我相當建議你去讀Kevster那篇對DON
的通論性介紹（譯：前文，已翻）。

If you are wondering about my credentials, I don't pretend to be an excellent
DON player, but I do have extensive experience at the $5 and $10 levels, where
I have been a consistent winner over thousands of tournaments. This guide is
based primarily on my experiences at $5.20 and $10.40 DON turbo tables on
PokerStars.
若你懷疑我的資歷，我不會假裝自己是優秀的DON玩家，但我在$5以及$10這兩個
level有深厚的經驗，在這級別我贏了數千場牌局。這篇指南就是基於我在pokerstars上
打DON$5.20與$10.40的經驗。

Throughout this article, I'm going to talk consistently about fold equity.
When I talk about fold equity, this is what I mean. "Pot equity is your share
of the pot if the pot were to go to show-down, without any further betting.
Fold equity is the forfeited pot equity" - Kill Everyone by Nelson, Streib
and Lee.
通篇文章，我一直會提及有關蓋牌價值（fold equity）。當我談到fold equity
，這就是我所指的。"pot equity是指如果這個pot走到開牌，你在pot上的期望值，沒有
額外的bet。fold equity是指被沒收的pot equity"-根據Nelson, Streib and Lee所寫的
書"Kill Everyone".

An example
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 10.4 Tournament, 25/50 Blinds 5 Ante (9 handed)
- Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP3 (t1895)
CO (t710)
Button (t1340)
SB (t2000)
BB (t1420)
UTG (t1515)
Hero (UTG+1) (t1470)
MP1 (t2940)
MP2 (t1710)

Hero's M: 12.25
Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Kc,Ac, Villain is in BB with Kh,Qh
1 fold, Hero bets t150, 6 folds, BB calls t100
Flop: (t370) Ah,3c,4h (2 players)
You have top pair versus a flush draw. The villain has 37% of the pot equity.
In other words, if the hand were to get to showdown, he would win 37% of the
time. If you bet enough to make to make calling unprofitable for the villain,
he may fold his hand and your pot equity increases from 63% to 100%.
The bigger your stack is, the greater your fold equity is. Maintaining a
healthy stack size is vital in DON as the flat payout structure tends to
punish people who call widely on the bubble. However, in order to encourage
opponents to fold, you need to maintain a stack with sufficient fold equity.
The more chips you have, the better off you will be.
範例：
pokerstars $10.4DON，盲注25／50底注5，九人。

MP3 (t1895)
CO (t710)
Button (t1340)
SB (t2000)
BB (t1420)
UTG (t1515)
Hero (UTG+1) (t1470)
MP1 (t2940)
MP2 (t1710)

M=12.25

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Kc,Ac, Villain is in BB with Kh,Qh
1 fold, Hero bets t150, 6 folds, BB calls t100
Flop: (t370) Ah,3c,4h (2 players)

你有top pair對上同花draw。對手有37%的pot equity。換句話說，如果這手牌直接走到
開牌，他有37%的勝率。如果你bet一發讓對手call牌會不划算的數字。他可能會蓋牌，而
你的pot equity就從63%增加到100%。你的籌碼愈多，你的fold equity就愈好。對於DON
這種傾向於懲罰在buuble時call牌範圍太寬的平均獎金結構，維持健康的籌碼數是非常重
要的。然而，為了刺激對手蓋牌，你的籌碼要維持一個充足的fold equity。你的籌碼愈
多，你的fold equity就愈好。

The concept of preserving chips encourages me to play very tightly in the
early stages of double or nothings. I am less concerned with winning pots
than keeping pots small without the nuts. I will tend to lead out hands like
TPTK and two-pair. If I am in position and there is action ahead of me, I
will usually call behind and re-evaluate the turn/river. If I am out of
position, I may check-call the flop and further streets depending on my hand
quality and the board texture. I make a lot of chips by checking the river
and allowing my opponents to bluff with hands they feel are ahead.
維持籌碼的觀念鼓勵我在DON初期階段打得非常緊。我思考怎麼贏這個pot還少於
在沒有最強牌時思考讓這個pot維持小一點。像是TPTK與兩對的牌，我會傾向於lead out
。如果我有位置優勢，而且前面位置已經有動作，我通常會call並且重新評估turn/river
。如果沒有位置優勢，我也許會c/c flop，之後的打法仰賴於我手牌的強度以及board的
質感。我會check很多籌碼在river上，讓對手拿著以為領先的牌來bluff我。

Hand 1

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 10.4 Tournament, 15/30 Blinds (9 handed) - Poker-
Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB (t1360)
UTG (t1695)
UTG+1 (t1390)
MP1 (t3280)
MP2 (t1080)
MP3 (t680)
CO (t2590)
Button (t1455)
Hero (SB) (t1470)

Hero's M: 32.67

Preflop: Hero is SB with Ad,Jc
UTG calls t30, UTG+1 calls t30, 4 folds, Button calls t30, Hero calls t15, BB
checks
Flop: (t150) 10h,Jh,4d (5 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG bets t30, UTG+1 raises to t120, 1 fold, Hero
folds.

Although Hero has TPTK here, the board texture is poor so he checks the flop
and waits to observe the action. After a raise and a reraise, the villains
are announcing they have hands they like and want to play. Hero should fold
since UTG could squeeze him, the number of player involved in the pot in
concerning and 120 chips is unlikely to all the chips he will risk in the
hand. Remember, risking those chips is bad for maintaining your fold equity.
手牌1
pokerstars $10.4DON，盲注15／30，九人。

BB (t1360)
UTG (t1695)
UTG+1 (t1390)
MP1 (t3280)
MP2 (t1080)
MP3 (t680)
CO (t2590)
Button (t1455)
Hero (SB) (t1470)

M=32.67
Preflop: Hero is SB with Ad,Jc
UTG calls t30, UTG+1 calls t30, 4 folds, Button calls t30, Hero calls t15, BB
checks
Flop: (t150) 10h,Jh,4d (5 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG bets t30, UTG+1 raises to t120, 1 fold, Hero
folds.

雖然我有TPTK，board的質感很差，所以我check flop並且等著觀察其他人的動作。在
raise以及reraise之後，對手正表示著他們喜歡手上的牌而且想要打。UTG可能會
squeeze，我應該蓋牌，這個pot的人數以及120籌碼，我不會在這手牌上冒險。記住，冒
著那些籌碼的風險對於維持你的fold equity是件壞事。

Before we start discussing strategy and analysing hands, here are a few
things to consider before you hit the tables.
在我們開始討論策略與分析手牌前，有一些上桌前的事情必須先思考。

MULTI-TABLING
DONs offer a fantastic opportunity for multi-tabling, probably more so than
any other form of poker, since the decisions are relatively simple and rarely
go beyond the flop. They also have an inherent advantage over multi-tabling
normal SnG’s in that there are always 6+ people at the table, which means
the period between hands is usually longer.
打多桌
由於做決定相當地簡單以及很少會超過flop，打DON提供了很棒的機會去同時開很多桌，
可能比其它poker都還多。比起一般的SNG還有個很棒的優勢在於DON總是有超過6個人在
牌桌裡，這表示每一手牌的時間會比較長。

      Important considerations
      -You shouldn't be risking more than 10% of your bankroll when you multi-
table e.g. you should not be playing more than 10 $10 tables if you have a
bankroll of $1000. The reason for this is very simple. If your ISP or the
poker-site goes down and you sit out on all tables, you could potentially
lose more than 10% or your roll if you are over-extending yourself.
      - Consider running a stack instead of tiling. It allows you to play
many more tables at once. You can find the code in the Beginner's Guide to
Multi-tabling by Nakamura and Rage2100
      - Do not try to jump in and multi-table 15-tables. I have gradually
built up my stack size and multi-tabling experience. Add 1 or 2 tables at
once and see how you cope before adding more.
重要事項
-當你開很多桌的時候，不應該花超過帳戶資金的10%。如果你的帳戶有一千元，那你不應
該開超過十桌$10 DON。理由很簡單。如果你使用的網路，網路業者或是poker網站出了問
題，你會sit out所有牌局，可能一下子輸超過帳戶資金的10%，如果你過於高估自己，也
可能輸掉這麼多。
-思考玩多少錢心態不會失衡。這可以讓你一次玩更多桌。你可找到那篇我跟Rage2100所
寫的"打多桌的新手指南"。
-不要倉促地行動以及超過15桌。我有逐漸地建立資金以及多桌的經驗。一次增加1、2桌
並且在增加更多桌之前看看你是否能應付得來。

      - Variance, one set = one data-point. Don't think that because you have
played 15 games you have 15 data points. You don't. What you have is what
statisticians call pseudo-replication. In other words the tournaments are not
actually independent of each other. Perhaps you were a bit sleepy or maybe
your girlfriend left you last week? Your play is affected in the same way in
all tables in one set and should therefore be treated as one data-point. You
can start drawing conclusions at roughly 30 data-points, before that there is
usually too much variance to say anything meaningful. If you are multi-
tabling 10 tables, that means you need have 300 DONs under your belt before
you can even start to consider what your ROI is.
-變化幅度，玩一回等於一筆數據。不要以為因為你打了15場就算是有15筆數據。
你不能這樣想。你有的在統計學上叫作偽重複。換句話說這幾場比賽並非互相獨立。或許
你有些疲勞或者是可能你女友上星期你分手？你的打法在同一回所有桌子都是一樣的，而
且應該視為一筆數據。你可以在大約30筆數據之後開始做些結論，在那之前變化幅度都還
太大不能說什麼是有意義的。如果你一回打10桌，那代表在你開始思考你的ROI是多少之前
，你需要打個300場DON。

AVOIDING THE GOOD PLAYERS
This is generally pretty self-explanatory. Where possible you should try to
avoid the good players. If you see a good regular already registered in the
tournament lobby, you should wait a few minutes and join another table. Also
try to avoid registering for tournaments where there are several tables that
have 4 or 5 players registered. This may mean there are too many regulars on
these tables and not enough fish to spread the wealth around.
避開好的玩家
這是很容易了解的。你應該試著避開好的玩家。如果你看到一個好的regular註冊了一場
比賽，你應該多等幾分鐘並且註冊其它桌比賽。同時避免註冊一些，好幾桌都是4、5個玩
家的桌子。這可能代表有太多regular在這些桌子，而沒有足夠的魚可以分食。

Personally, I don’t exercise this kind of table selection as I actually
enjoy playing against most regulars. I usually have a good idea of how they
play and if they sit to my left they usually ‘get’ that they can’t call
wide in these spots. I know I can push very wide into them and it’s an easy
way to stay afloat in a DON.
以個人而言，我不會做這類的選桌策略，事實上我喜歡跟其他regular打。我通常
知道他們怎麼打以及如果他們坐在我左邊，他們通常"很了"他們call牌範圍不能太寬。
我知道我可以對他們allin很寬的範圍。

VARIANCE AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR YOUR BANKROLL
Although variance is probably lower in DONs, since the result is binary;
either you lose or a double of your stake, most likely around 50% of the
time, there is still considerable variance. Two months ago I made over $1000
at DON tables but I dropped at least 15 BI 3 times. Be properly rolled. I
suggest at least 25-30 if you are a recreational player and at least 50-60
if you are a professional player. Being properly rolled will allow you to
bring a fearless game to the table and give you an edge over
timid, under-rolled opponents. Consider downloading this Excel spreadsheet
and playing around with Hero’s edge.
變化幅度以及對你的帳戶資金代表的意義
雖然由於結果只有兩種，DON的variance可能比較低;還有你輸還是贏兩倍，可能就是50%
的機會，這仍然有相當大的variance。兩個月前我打DON賺了超過$1000，但是有三次至少
輸了15個buy-in。如果你是消遣型玩家，我建議至少要有25-30個buy-in，打職業的至少
要50-60。有適當地資金會讓你無懼於牌局，而且對其它玩家佔有優勢。建議下載這個
http://www.megaupload.com/?d=70OEEMYZ電子試算表，並且玩玩看。

TO TURBO OR NOT TO TURBO
Should you play turbos or normals? To a certain extent, this is personal
preference. Off the top of my head, here are a few things you should consider.
The rake in the turbos is half that of the normal-speeds. If you choose to
play the normal-speeds, you will need to overcome this extra rake. Turbos
will generally be much quicker and allow you to play more tournaments in the
same time period. On the other hand, there will be less time before blind
increases and therefore you will have to push more marginal hands in turbos.
Consequentially there is generally a trade off that means you trade a lower
ROI for higher volume.
打turbo還是不要打turbo
你應該打turbo還是一般？某種程度來講，這要看個人偏好。我首先想到的，有些事情必
須去考量。turbo的抽水是一般的一半。如果你選擇打一般速度，你必須克服這額外的抽
水。turbo會比較快，在相同時間下可以玩比較多桌。換句話說，盲注增加前的時間比較
短，因此你將會必須allin很多不好不壞的牌。必然地，這意味著你用較低的ROI去換取
較多的場數。

RUNNING A HUD
A HUD or Heads Up Display is a graphical interface that overlies a table and
provides an indication of how opponents play. The two main tracking softwares
are Hold ‘em Manager and Poker Tracker. If you are serious about DONs, I
seriously recommend running a HUD. They are especially useful if you are
multi-tabling.
執行HUD
HUD或是Head-up display是一個圖形化介面，標示出對手打法的特徵。兩個主要的軟體是
H&M以及PT。如果你要認真玩DON，我建議你執行HUD。尤其是打很多桌時候特別有用。


Here is my design. The top row in my HUD indicates how aggressive a player
is, the second row indicates how often opponents steal the blinds and how
often they call when they are in the blinds. Since I have started using the
stats in the second row I have noticed a big difference in my game.
以下是我的配置。第一列顯示對手有多aggressive，第二列顯示對手多常偷pot以
及多常在盲注call牌。自從我開始使用第二列的數據，我已經注意到這牌局有很大的不
同。

VPIP / PFR / AF / Hands
Steal / Call in BB / Call in SB
※ 編輯: Goal            來自: 114.39.141.144       (11/15 03:15)
推 Ashur:有看有推
推 jord:竟然沒有3B....
→ Goal:他的ID是eNakamura
附上幾張他的圖表
sep
http://i383.photobucket.com/albums/oo280/AceNakamura/ScreenShot015.jpg
http://i383.photobucket.com/albums/oo280/AceNakamura/ScreenShot016.jpg
oct
http://i383.photobucket.com/albums/oo280/AceNakamura/ScreenShot022.jpg

推 et220870:我比較想看Jord大寫的~~XD Jord大成績也比他好多了= =+
→ Goal:等j大開don課程你再花錢買吧
※ 編輯: Goal            來自: 114.39.137.14        (11/16 01:47)
→ lafayee:我覺得DON HUD數據好像不是太重要(準...除非是有一定手數