DON PART 2: STRATEGY-FINAL STAGES

[Goal (Full Tilt Poker)]

DON PART 2: STRATEGY
DON第二部：策略

Nakamura
Sun, 01 Nov 2009, 3:25pm
http://0rz.tw/gVaBK

THE FINAL STAGES (125/250 + 25 and beyond)
牌局後期（120/250 ante 25以上）

ADJUSTING TO OPPONENTS
Ultimately, you are going to need to steal a lot of blinds in DONs. Premium
hands don’t come along all that often, so this means you are going to be
pushing an awful lot of marginal hands.
視對手調整
根本上地，DON的牌局裡你必須大量的偷盲。強牌並不是那麼常拿到，所以這表示你要推
很多中等的手牌。

Generally, you should try to avoid the players who are potentially going to
call with a wide range. If you are running a HUD, displaying calling stats
can be very useful to identify which players call wider. Avoid these players.
You should also generally avoid the larger stacks. Larger stacks have lower
penalty for calling; they will not eliminated by calling a smaller stack.
Most of the time, larger stacks have doubled up early by making a marginal
call. There is an exception to this rule; if you can find a tight player who
has doubled or tripled up early, they may go into ‘lock-down mode’ and
consequently be very easy to steal from.
一般而言，你應該試著避免那些call牌範圍較寬的對手。若你有跑軟體的話，顯
示哪些對手call牌範圍較寬有很大的幫助。避開那些人，你也要避開那些籌碼很多的對手
。這種人call牌的害處不大，他們不會因為call一個籌碼很少的玩家allin而出局。很多
時候，big stack是在牌局初期用個中等的手牌贏得兩倍滿。這裡有一條例外規則：如果
你能發現誰是在牌局初期兩倍或三倍滿的玩家，是個風格很緊的人，他們可能會進入"鎖
定模式"，通常這種人很好偷。

You should also steal liberally from tight regulars, particularly when you
are in the SB or button positions. If you are unfortunate enough to have a
particularly loose player (or loose caller) immediately to your left, you
should consider pushing from an earlier position. This is because looser
players love to call SB and button steal shoves. They aren’t particularly
discerning with their calls; any Ax will usually do. They correctly figure
your range is extremely wide, and incorrectly conclude that they can call if
their hand is better than your range.
你也應該大量的偷那些很緊的reg，尤其是在SB或button的位置。如果不幸地有個
很loose的玩家在你左邊（或者說loose caller），你應該思考在稍微前面的位置全推。
這是因為loose玩家很愛call SB或button的allin偷盲。他們不是特別地了解"call"，拿
到Ax通常就call下去了。他們正確地指出你的範圍很寬，但是不正確地做出"我的牌比較
好，所以call"這樣的推論。

http://i383.photobucket.com/albums/oo280/AceNakamura/ScreenShot012.jpg
In this example you will show a profit unless your opponent is calling wider
than about 15%. It he is so bad that he is calling with any ace and any pair,
you should fold (If Hero pushes any two cards, villain should fold no matter
what his cards are). This is where having the calling percentages in your HUD
should prove very useful.
圖片上的例子，你將會發現全推是有利的，除非你的對手call牌範圍超過15%。如
果他爛到會拿著Ax或任何對子就call，那你應該蓋牌（如果Hero推任何兩張牌，對手拿任
何兩張牌都不能call）。這就是有個軟體能顯示call牌比率是如此的有用。

WHY IS CALLING GENERALLY A BAD IDEA?
The flat payout structure generally means you need to be quite far ahead of
your opponent to call profitably. If you are not sufficiently ahead you will
end up damaging both your own equity and your opponents and donating it to
the other players at the table.
為什麼這裡call下去是個錯誤？
平均的獎金結構代表你要領先對手非常多，call牌才是有利的。如果你不是非常地領先，
你將會同時損害你自己的equity以及你的對手，然後讓其他人撿到便宜。

http://i383.photobucket.com/albums/oo280/AceNakamura/ScreenShot014.jpg
In this example, even though the villain is probably pushing something like
70% of hands, you can only call with about 6% of hands. In fact, the graph on
the right shows that even if he is pushing 100% of hands, you can only call
with 8% of hands.
You WILL be punished for calling loose. If you learn one thing from this post
it should be “push light, call tight.”
這個例子中，即使對手推70%的手牌，你也只能拿前6%的好牌call。事實上，這張
圖右邊顯示了就算對手推任何兩張牌，你也只能用前8%的好牌call。

WHAT DO I DO IF THE WORLD'S BIGGEST DONK IS TO MY LEFT?
Well, it’s just unlucky, but it happens to everyone. If he is going to call
very wide, you should firstly fold all your below average hands when you are
in the SB. Pushing these is profitable against tight callers, but usually a
losing play against the wider callers. Wait for a good hand. Failing that,
and getting desperate, you have two options. You can push from an earlier
position (i.e. not from SB or button), looser players to your left will
generally call much tighter, since there will several players to play after
them. Pick a hand where the tightest players are in the blind and push fairly
wide at this point, almost regardless of your hand.
如果我左邊坐了一隻世界上最大的驢子該怎麼辦？
好吧，就是不走運，但這會發生在每個人身上。如果他call牌很寬，當你在SB時應該蓋掉
後50%的牌。推這些牌只對很緊的對手才有利益，對上很鬆的對手就不是了。等好牌。失
敗而必須冒險的話，你有兩個選擇。你可以在前面的位置推（不是在SB或button），很鬆
的玩家通常會call比較緊，因為後面還有幾個人。當最緊的玩家在盲注時，不管什麼牌都
推。

Alternatively, you can pick on the middle stacks at this point. As we
discussed, big stacks are quite likely to call particularly wide. Small
stacks may be getting desperate and prepared to make marginal or -EV calls
(see section “Making -EV moves”). Middle stacks usually have the mentality
that they are relatively secure and therefore don’t really need the chips.
Also, they usually stand to lose a lot of equity if they call and lose the
hand, making placing difficult. They will usually leave behind blinds, unless
they run into a premium hand.
或者，你可以用在中等籌碼的對手身上。如我們討論過的，big stack很可能call
牌範圍較寬。small stack可能會冒險並且準備做個拿中等手牌或是-EV的call（請見章節
“Making -EV moves”）。中等籌碼的玩家通常會想他們很安全，因此不是那麼需要籌碼
。同時，他們通常採取如果call了輸掉會失去很多equity的立場。他們通常會放棄盲注，
除非拿到超強的手牌。

MAKING -EV MOVES
I’m not going to post a specific hand here, but you should use your brain
and logic. For example if you are one of two short-stacks at the table and
the other short-stack pushes into your BB, you should consider calling fairly
wide if you are going to be rather distant in terms of stack size to everyone
else at the table. Often ICM will say fold here, but sometimes I will give
myself a likely 40-60% flip instead of meekly blinding out.
做出-EV舉動
我不會在這邊貼個範例，但是你應該用用你的頭腦以及邏輯。舉例來說，如果你是兩個
short stack的其中一個，而另一個在你是BB時全推，如果你的籌碼數離其他人有很大的
差距時，你應該思考用較寬的手牌去call。常常ICM理論會說這裡應該蓋牌，但是有時候
我會在這裡做個40-60的對決，不要被盲注吃掉。

COLLUDING
On or near the bubble, you should collude with other players to knock out a
short stack. Colluding means two or more players call or limp into a pot for
the purposes of knocking a short stack out. This increases your own equity
and gives you the maximum chance of finishing in the money.
陰謀
接近或處在泡沫期，你應該跟其它玩家串連起來把short stack弄出局。陰謀代表兩個或
多個玩家call或limp進pot，目的在於讓short tack出局。此舉能增加你的equity，並且
帶來最大的機會贏得牌局。

      Factors to consider when colluding.
      - Generally you should automatically call if the call costs you less
than 10%.
      - Will you have fold equity on other players should you call and lose?
      - You should strongly consider calling if you are on the bubble and two
or more players are already all-in who you ALSO cover.
耍陰謀時思考要素
-一般而言，如果call只花不到10%籌碼，你應該自動地call牌。
-call了然後輸掉之後，你對其他人是否還有fold equity？
-如果在泡沫期，已經有兩個或更多玩家allin。如果你的籌碼比他們任何一個都多，你
應該勇敢的call下去。

      Things to remember
      - Don’t raise if there is a very short stack at the table, even with AA.
All you are achieving is folding hands that may actually beat the short stack.
Limping in will encourage other opponents to follow suit. This is especially
relevant where a short stack will have a very small amount of chips left if
he folds.
      - Your job isn’t to knock other players out, it’s to place in the
tournament. Don’t justify loose calls simply because you have lots of chips;
they may be useful in the future.
記得一些事情
-有個籌碼非常少的玩家在桌上時不要raise，即使是拿AA。所有接近要蓋掉的牌都可能
擊敗short stack。limp會鼓勵其它對手加入其中。當short stack蓋牌的話，籌碼會變得
非常少的時候特別有利。
-你的工作不是讓其它對手出局，那是tournament要做的事。不能因為你有很多籌碼就輕
易的call很鬆，那對未來可能有用。

TIMING THE BLINDS
At every opportunity you have, you should attempt to time the blinds. While
some people may consider this unethical, the rules in online poker allow you
to take the full amount of allocated time to make a decision. In my mind it
makes sense to seize every small edge that is within the rules and etiquette
of poker.
拖時間
任何你有機會時，你應該試圖去拖時間。有些人可能覺得這樣很沒品，線上poker規則讓
你有完整的時間去做決定。在規則與禮儀範圍內，用盡任何微小的優勢都是有道理的。


      Factors to consider
      - You should firstly consider whether you actually want a bigger blind.
If you are significantly shorter than the rest of the stacks of the table,
you should actually play quickly, as you really want to maximise the number
of hands at the smaller blinds, thus maximising your fold equity.
      - Consistently taking the maximum amount of time will likely cause you
to be target at the table, most likely of players playing one or two tables.
They will likely notice your time-wasting efforts and may call you down light
or repeatedly steal your blind to ‘teach you a lesson’. Time waste
intelligently.
思考因素
-首先你應該思考是否要讓盲注變大。如果你的籌碼在桌上是很少的，你應該打得快一點
，因為你想在盲注小的時候多看一些牌，因此而極大化你的fold equity。
-持續地用盡每次手牌的時間將可能導致你變成桌上的目標，玩家們很可能玩一到兩桌。
他們注意到你浪費時間，於是常常call你的牌或是不斷地偷你盲注來"給你上一課"。請聰
明地耗時間。
      - Time wasting is difficult if you are using a stack, simply because
you can’t see the other tables before you actually make a decision on the
current table. Timing the blinds will only generally be available when you
are tiling (or tiling towards the end of a stack).
      - If the blinds are going up in 2 minutes or less you should consider
whether you can make it through the cheaper blinds, in which case you should
play as quickly as possible. Otherwise you should slow down immediately until
the blinds increase, in order make other players put in a larger blind,
putting them under pressure.
-如果你正在使用籌碼，耗時間是困難的，容易因為你在這桌真的做個決策前，無
法去看別桌。拖盲注只有在你tilt的時候才有用。
-當盲注在兩分鐘內要往上升的時候，你應該思考要怎樣才能讓盲注通過你時是便宜的，
應該盡量打得快一點。其它時候你應該打得慢一點，為了讓其他人要放比較多盲注進去，
讓他們有壓力。

MOVING AI WITHOUT MOVING AI
Occasionally you have a hand that may warrant a push, but you don't
necessarily want your push to be called. You should consider putting most of
your chips in, but not all of them.
不是allin的allin
在你拿到一個有理由推的牌時，但是你不是很想要被人call。你應該放大部份的籌碼進去
，但不是全部。


Hand 6
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 10.4 Tournament, 125/250 Blinds 25 Ante
(7 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Button (t2765)　　SB (t1905)　　　BB (t2171)
Hero 　(t1195)　　MP1 (t1005)　　　MP2 (t4194)
CO (t1765)
Hero's M: 2.17
Preflop: Hero is UTG with J, J
Hero bets t1000, 6 folds
Hero M=2.17
翻牌前：Hero在UTG拿到JJ，bet1000，後面全蓋

譯者偷懶，底下這段翻個大義就好XD
A couple of good things can happen when you use this technique. Firstly, the
human brain is exceptionally adept at picking up patterns and, more
importantly, things that don't fit into the pattern. Psychologically, someone
is less likely to pick up that your bet is an AI bet when you put in 750
chips at the 100/200 level than if you pushed an odd size like 890. Odd-sized
bets draw attention by not fitting in with the general pattern of a standard
bet size. Most people tend to like to make their bets standard sizes and
pushing in 890 chips may set off the alarms bell. If you opponent is a
serious multi-tabler, they only have a few seconds to make a decision. They
may actually quickly fold not realising your bet does not have many chips
behind it. I occasionally make this mistake myself.
當你用這個技巧可能會發生幾件好事。心裡學上來講，盲注是100/200時，你bet
個750要比全推890來得不容易被發覺你是要allin。對打多桌的的玩家來說，他們習慣
標準的加注而且沒太多時間做反應，所以他們可能很快就fold掉這手牌。

Secondly, you may cause a thinking opponent to pause and think about why you
are not pushing AI. He may fold a hand that beats you because he is running
out of time and can’t make a decision, or he may consider you have a big
hand and are trying to suck players into the pot.
Thirdly, if players several call your bet and you only have a minuscule
stack, a donk may violate the concept of implied collusion and bet 500 or
1000 or all his chips, potentially forcing hands that could potentially draw
and beat you, out of the pot. Believe me, opponents sometimes do this with
A-high on the bubble.
你可能會讓對手停下來想，為什麼你不allin?對手可能會耗掉時間，或者是讓對
手以為你牌超大想引人入彀。
假設有幾個人call下來，而你僅剩一點點籌碼。一隻驢子可能在這時候違背了潛在的陰
謀觀念而bet個500或1000，導致其他可能擊敗你或有個draw的牌被蓋掉，有時候泡沫期
時，有驢子拿A high這樣做。

FOLDING THE BEST HAND
Often in DONs (particularly towards the bubble) you will be required to fold
what is probably or certainly the best hand. If you can’t or are unwilling
to do this, you will probably lose at DONs over the long-term.
蓋掉最好的牌
很多時候（尤其是在泡沫期）你需要蓋掉可能是最好的牌。如果你無法做到，長期來講你
可能會輸很多。

Hand 7
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 10.4 Tournament, 125/250 Blinds 25 Ante
(6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP (t7410)　　CO (t2520)　　Button (t1060)
SB (t415)　　Hero(t1920)　　UTG　  (t1675)
Hero's M: 3.66
Preflop: Hero is BB with A, A
1 fold, MP bets t750, 3 folds, Hero ??

Hero M=3.66
翻牌前：Hero在BB拿AA
UTG fold，MP bet 750，後面都蓋，Hero這時候怎麼做？

Hero obviously has the best hand here, but he should fold rather rapidly.
There are three shorter stacks at the table, including one very short stack.
You also have virtually zero fold equity on the initial raiser. It will be
1145 chips for him to call and win 2895 and potentially finish the game. With
a monster stack, all but the tightest opponents WILL call here.
Hero確實拿到最好的牌，但是他應該要蓋掉。桌上有三個short stack，包括一個
非常short的玩家。你對MP也沒有fold equity。他只要花1145去call，而且贏了比賽就
結束了。以一個籌碼超多的玩家來說，所有對手都會call。

An analysis in SNGWIZ will show pushing here is a large mistake whatever
cards the villain is playing, unless he folds a significant proportion of the
time. As we have already discussed, that will not usually happen. Simply fold
your way to victory.
用SNGWIZ軟體去跑就會發現，在那時候allin是個很大的錯誤，無論對手拿著什麼
牌。如我們先前討論過的，有時候會發生。蓋掉它是你取勝的方法。

An example of why folding the best hand is sometimes the best course of
action...
這裡有個例子就是為什麼有時候蓋掉好牌是正確的行為。

Hand 8

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 10.4 Tournament, 75/150 Blinds 15 Ante
(6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button (t6650)SB (t1155)
BB (t1245)UTG (t1930)
Hero (MP) (t700)
CO (t3320)

Hero's M: 2.22
Preflop: Hero is MP with 10, 3
2 folds, CO calls t150, Button bets t500, 2 folds, CO raises to t3305
(All-In), Button calls t2805

Flop: (t6925) 2, 9, 10 (2 players, 1 all-in)
Turn: (t6925) 4 (2 players, 1 all-in)
River: (t6925) J (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: t6925
Results:
Button had K, Q (straight, King high).
CO had K, K (one pair, Kings).
Outcome: Button won t6925

ICM AND IGNORING IT
When everyone is getting low in chips, ICM is often not a useful tool
anymore. Other factors start becoming important, such as who will be forced
to play before they are blinded out, etc. Use your brain and mathematical
skills while you are playing. Remember, you need a valid reason why you are
rejecting what the ICM says.
ICM以及略過它
當每個人的籌碼都很少的時候（盲注很大），ICM就不再是個有用的工具。其它因素開始
變得更為重要，像是某個玩家被迫在被盲注吃掉之前要打，類似這樣情形。用用你的頭腦
以及數學的技巧。記住，你需要一個可信的理由來拒絕ICM的建議。

SHOWING YOUR HANDS
I know some people never show their cards. It’s not a bad strategy as
opponents can never be sure what you have. On the other hand, not showing
your cards occasionally arouses enough suspicion for an opponent to
eventually call you. In my opinion, showing some of your big hands can be
beneficial, and keeps your opponents’ fear that you are stealing every hand,
at bay. I don’t suggest showing every big hand you have, as it would be easy
for an observant opponent to then know which hands are bluffs and which are
you big hands. I do however suggest showing big hands where a bluff looks
likely.
秀你的手牌
我知道有些人從不秀他的牌。那不是個壞策略，對手永遠不確定你有什麼。換句話說，不
秀牌有時候會激起對手的懷疑而call你。我的意見是，秀一些好牌是有利益的，而且能在
你偷盲時保持你的對手恐懼。我不建議每次大牌都秀，這可能讓對手很容易觀察你何時是
好牌何時是在bluff。我建議在看起來像bluff的時候秀出好牌。
min-raise的部份先不翻

On the other hand, showing your bluffs and rubbing players’ nosing in it is
generally imprudent. You will make them feel stupid and encourage them to
call you, which is generally bad in DONs. Quietly muck your hand and try to
get away with stealing again.
換句話說，秀你的bluff是不明智的。這可能讓他們感覺愚蠢並且刺激他們call你
。安靜地埋牌並且試著再一次成功偷盲。

In very specific cases it may be prudent to show your bluffs. For example, if
a regular is repeatedly stealing your blind, you may decide to re-steal with
any decent hand and FE. You should consider showing your hand to demonstrate
that you are prepared to defend your blind and prevent further abuse. If he
steals your blind again, he either has balls or a good hand.
在一些特別的情況下秀你的bluff可能是明智的。例如，如果一個reg一直偷你盲
注，你可能決定要用中等強度的牌以及fold equity去反偷。你應該思考秀你的牌去解釋
你已經準備好保護你的盲注並且阻止他再這樣偷。如果他再一次偷你，那他可能真的是
有牌了。

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc) 
◆ From: 114.39.145.101
推 phxcon:推了
推 pender:有看有推!!
推 ddavid:pokerb看到AA蓋掉那段一定很興奮
推 jord:她自己也說了 blind大了ICM就不準 所以AA幾乎永遠all in
→ Tornadola:就算有人快出局也是推嗎?，我有過這樣輸掉..xd
→ ddavid:文中有講了要看情況啊，bubble這種時刻人不用是我殺的，活
→ ddavid:著最大AA第二大XD