推 newbiegg:最後一段自我安慰成功 10/28 00:54
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推 bluewave2000:XDDD 10/28 12:01
Crazy Bluff On The River
河牌上的瘋狂唬爛
September 2009
Sami Kelopuro
http://0rz.tw/7dRTh
Let me tell you about my sick bluff against Tom “durrrr” Dwan.
We have been playing heads up for a couple of hours on Full Tilt Poker and I’
m up by a few hundred thousand. At the start of this hand I have a stack of
$311,232 and durrrr has $308,984.
讓我告訴你一個我對"durrrr"(註1)做出的變態bluff。
我們已經在FTP上玩heads-up兩個小時，我贏了一、二十萬。在這手牌開始前我的籌
碼是$311232而durrrr有$308984。
I’m on the button and raise to $3,000 with 6? 4?, durrrr calls.
Flop comes 9? 5? 2?, durrrr checks to me, and I make my normal continuation
bet of $4,000. durrrr raises to $12,700. I only have a gutshot but we are
playing so deep I can win a big pot if I hit the nuts with a 3.
我在button的位置拿著6d4s raise到$3000，durrrr call下來。flop出來是9c5d
2s，durrrr check給我，我做個很普通c-bet到$4000。durrrr raise到$12700。我只有聽
一個中洞順，但是我們籌碼都這麼多，如果讓我中到一張3的話，我就能贏到一個大pot
。
If there was a flush draw on the flop, I would give up the hand. Apart from
the deep stacks, position gives me an edge as I have the chance to outplay
him on later streets. It’s a very dry board, so it’s likely that durrrr is
just stealing without a hand. He knows that I c-bet more than most players,
so to him it’s likely the flop hasn’t helped me at all. Therefore I think a
call on this flop is pretty standard.
如果flop上是個同花draw，我可能會放棄這手牌。除了雙方如此多的籌碼外，位
置優勢也給了我一點機會在之後的牌上可以outplay他。這是個非常乾的board，所以
durrrr可能沒牌，只是想偷pot。他知道我比大多數玩家都還會c-bet，所以對他而言，
這個flop很可能也沒幫到我什麼。因此我認為call flop是相當標準的作法。
I suppose many high stakes players would three-bet here to take control of
the pot, but I don’t like that play at all. With a board like that, no
decent player – and especially not durrrr – would fold top pair or even
middle or bottom pair to a large raise. And if my opponent has nothing,
I can win the pot on the turn or the river anyway.
我想許多高額籌碼的玩家會在這裡3-bet來控制這個pot，但我一點也不喜歡這樣
玩。像這樣的board，一個像樣的玩家-尤其是durrr-只要拿著top pair甚至是中等或最
小的對子都不會因為對手raise很大一發就fold牌。而且如果我的對手什麼牌也沒有，我
可以在turn或river贏這個pot。
So I call, and the turn comes the A?. durrrr bets $24,700. I don’t think the
ace helped him, but he probably thinks the same of me unless I have something
like A-3 or A-4. So it’s possible he’s still value betting a 9.
所以我call，turn來了一張Ac。durrrr bet$24700。我不認為這張A有幫到他，但
是他很可能也覺得A沒幫到我，除非我有A3 A4這樣的牌。所以他有可能是在value bet他
的一張9。
In a way the ace is a good card for a second barrel bluff, so it’s nearly
impossible to put him on any particular hand at this point.
turn上的A是張能夠二次bluff的牌，所以這裡幾乎不能去推測他拿著什麼樣的
牌。
I don’t want to raise because durrrr often pushes the turn with some pretty
marginal hands and then I’ll be forced to fold. I decide to call to see the
river with the intention of taking down this pot with my positional advantage.
我不想要raise回去，因為durrrr常常會拿著不好不壞的牌反推回來，然後我就
被迫要蓋牌。我決定call下來看river，試圖用位置優勢去拿下這個pot。
So I call once more, and the river is the 7?. durrrr bets $68,700. I have
approximately $200,000 more and durrrr has about the same amount.
所以我再一次call牌，river是一張7s。durrrr bet$68700。我大概剩$200K，
durrr也差不多。
I have 6-high, so naturally I can win this pot only if I raise.
我只有6-high，所以基本上只能靠raise才能贏了。
In my mind durrrr could have just about anything here. Quite possibly he
doesn’t have any sort of a hand. If he does, it’s probably two pair or a
set. I don’t think he can value bet a mere 9 here anymore, though there is a
small chance he might. A pair of aces is good enough for a thin value bet but
it’s not a likely hand for him. The only way he can have an ace is with A-3
or A-4.
在我想法裡，durrrr拿什麼牌都有可能。很可能他啥也沒有。如果他有，可能是
兩對或三條。我不認為他只拿一張9會在這裡做個value bet，也許有那麼一丁點可能啦。
一對A足夠在這裡value bet，但是不像他有的牌。唯一有可能是A的牌組是A3 A4。
A-6, A-8, A-10, A-J, A-Q and A-K are all hands that he would have just called
with on the flop, and the higher part of that range he would have raised
pre-flop. For the same reason I can count out all pocket pairs from 10-10 to
K-K.
A6 A8 AT AJ AQ AK這些牌組他只會在flop上call牌，更強的牌組他會在preflop
raise。同理，TT到KK也是。
With a small raise I could have forced him to fold a bluff and possibly some
of his thin value bets. But it occurred to me that if I raise all in he will
think I must have a really big hand. I thought I could make him lay down even
two pair or a set. The hand that I’m most likely representing is a straight
with 3-4 or 6-8. I think those two are very likely holdings for me here,
especially if it’s with two clubs so that I would have turned a flush draw
too. With the smaller straight I would have often raised the turn, but if I
think durrrr is bluffing it’s correct for me to slowplay. 6? 8? is the most
likely hand for me here. I could also have a set, probably with A-A or 7-7.
With a smaller set I probably wouldn’t raise the river since durrrr has been
representing a big hand all the way.
來個小一點的raise可能會讓他被迫fold掉他的bluff，以及一些比較弱的value
bet。但是我想到如果allin的話，他可能會以為我真的有很強的牌。我想我能讓他放棄
兩對或三條。我很可能在代表的牌是34 68順子。我認為這兩個牌組是我很可能會有的，
尤其是3c4c 6c8c讓我還有個同花draw。拿著順子我常常會在turn上raise，但是如果我
覺得durrrr在bluff，那slow play就是正確的打法。6c8c在這裡是最像我會有的牌了。
我也可能有三條，像是AA 77。如果是很小的三條，我可能不會在durrrr在表示他像是有
強牌的時候，我還在river raise。
I didn’t think there were many hands that durrrr would suspect I’m bluffing
with after this action. Possibly 6-6 or 8-8, in which case I was calling
“to keep him honest” on the flop and turn but realized on the river that
my hand is not good enough for showdown. Not very likely, I would say.
我不認為有太多牌會讓durrrr懷疑我是在allin bluff。可能66或88，我在
flop turn都call牌來保持誠實，但是在river覺得牌不夠強到能showdown。我會說，不
太可能。
Otherwise I would need to have almost a complete float, maybe something with
two clubs. Q-J, K-J, or K-Q I would have checked on the flop or folded to a
raise. It takes some creative thinking to come up with a hand that I would
bluff with on the river considering the action and what he knows about my
game. I have the hand that I’m representing enough times to make the bluff
credible, especially when he possibly thinks that I’m scared money
at $500/$1,000 and I haven’t made any crazy bluffs against him in a long
time.
除此之外我可能需要去徹底的float，也許是兩張梅花。QJ KJ KQ會check flop
或是fold raise。這時浮現一些創造性想法，我會在river bluff。我已用足夠的時間去
有信用的代表我有這樣的牌，尤其是他很可能會想我會怕$500/$1000的盲注，而且我很
長一段時間都不曾做出這樣瘋狂的bluff。
So I push all in.
所以我全推了
durrrr uses almost all of his time bank and finally calls with A? 9?. To be
honest, I started to regret my move while I was waiting for his decision and
I realized he was going to call me. He likes to make those calls and he hates
the idea that I might push him out of a big pot.
durrrr幾乎用掉他time bank裡的所有時間，最後用Ad9d call了。老實說，當我
在等他下決定以及意識到他call時，我開始後悔了。他喜歡去call這類情況，而且他討
厭我在逼他放棄這個大pot。
I’m not trying to belittle his skills or imply that he’s a careless player,
but the fact is that I tried to bluff the wrong opponent.
我不會試圖去貶低他的技巧或是認為他是個草率的玩家，但事實是我唬錯人了。
I quit the session soon after this hand because I knew this kind of hand
would have a negative impact on my game. I wasn’t even tilted or angry with
myself or with any domestic objects in the near vicinity. Mistakes happen,
and this was just one of them.
那一手結束後我馬上關掉桌子，因為我知道這手牌會對我有負面影響。我沒有
tilt、沒有對自己或周遭的人生氣。錯誤發生了，這只是所有錯誤的一部份。
Besides, my bluff was a good investment for the future. A little while ago I
played a couple of sessions with him again and I won big. With my new
“bluffy” image I got paid for my good hands almost every time and he
didn’t make any big laydowns anymore. Even a bad bluff can turn into profit
in the long run.
後來這個bluff變成一個好的投資。不久前我再次跟durrrr玩了兩次而我贏了很
多。因為我的新"唬爛"形象讓我幾乎每次拿好牌時都能賺到，而且他不會再放棄任何一
個大pot。即使是個不好的bluff，長期也能獲利。
註1
Tom “durrrr” Dwan
http://www.pokertableratings.com/fulltilt-player-search/durrrr
Ad9d v.s 6d4s
http://0rz.tw/RczW3
--
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