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The Year Of the Woman, Finally (by Stephen Holden) The year was 1993, and in the lexicon of Hollywood hype, it was the Year of the Woman. As the glitterati thronged into the Dorothy Chandler Pavilion for the 65th Annual Academy Awards, the orchestra blared out that pedophilia-tinged ode to blooming fem ininity "Thank Heaven for Little Girls." During the show, Liza Minnelli belted an embarrassing piece of special material proclaiming Hillary Rodham Clinton leader of the drive for women to become pilots and auto mechanics. Later, a tribute to great ladies of the screen somehow forgot to mention Lillian Gish and Marlene Dietrich. Talk about condescension! As for the awards that season, it was hardly a shining year for women. Emma Thompson, who won for "Howards End," beat out Susan Sarandon ("Lorenzo's Oil"), Catherine Deneuve ("Indochine"), Mary McDonnell ("Passion Fish") and Michelle Pfeiffer ("Love Fi eld"). Solid performances all, but not the stuff of greatness. But as any Hollywood marketing whiz worth his weight in celluloid will tell you, timing is everything. If the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences had only waited a few years, there might have been something to crow about in terms of meaty femal e roles. As Oscar fever mounts this year, men (with the exception of almost sure things like Ralph Fiennes, Woody Harrelson and Daniel Day- Lewis) will be almost an afterthought as voters, for the first time in recent memory, weigh the performances of at least twice as many actresses as there are niches to put them in. Here are three possible scenarios for what will happen. In the first, it is the year of the grande dame, and Hollywood draws its wagons into a circle, freezing out all but the crustiest old-guard divas. Leading the pack is Shirley MacLaine, reprising o ne of her most beloved characters, Aurora Greenway, in "The Evening Star," the sudsy sequel to "Terms of Endearment." Coming up from behind is Debbie Reynolds, as plucky as ever, playing Albert Brooks's eccentric mom in his new comedy, "Mother." Gaining on them is Gena Rowlands as a noble widow with two grown children bravely striking out on her own in "Unhook the Stars." For best supporting actress in the Year of the Grande Dame, figure Julie Christie's performance as Gertrude in Kenneth Branagh's four- hour "Hamlet," Lauren Bacall as Barbra Streisand's dragon mother with a heart of butter in "The Mirror Has Two Faces" and Mary Tyler Moore as a neurotic New York matron busting her bustier in "Flirting With Disaster." The second scenario focuses on what used to be called the New Hollywood, with honors heaped on mainstream stars with classy images. Winona Ryder, already a Hollywood favorite, is nominated once again for "The Crucible," and Nicole Kidman, overlooked la st year for "To Die For," is recognized for "The Portrait of a Lady." Add Meg Ryan for "Courage Under Fire," Goldie Hawn for "Everyone Says I Love You," Joan Allen (who was nominated last year) for "The Crucible," the newcomer Gwyneth Paltrow for "Emma," and Diane Keaton (who carries off the difficult feat of embodying goodness without going all misty-eyed and gooey) and Meryl Streep (a perennial nominee) for "Marvin's Room," and you have a Who's Who of Hollywood superwomen competing in the "having it all " sweepstakes. In the third scenario, the year of the woman is also the year of the wild card. The British actresses Brenda Blethyn ("Secrets and Lies") and Emily Watson ("Breaking the Waves") are joined by Courtney Love, nominated for her crash-and-burn portrayal of Larry Flynt's drug- addicted wife in "The People vs. Larry Flynt," Laura Dern for her glue-sniffing loser in the satire "Citizen Ruth" and Lili Taylor for her portrayal of a would-be assassin in "I Shot Andy Warhol." Bringing some aristocratic glamour and political fervor, respectively, into this motley bunch are two more British actresses, Kristin Scott Thomas ("The English Patient") and Helen Mirren ("Some Mother's Son"). Finally there is Frances McDormand as an intrepid poker-faced police detective wit h a comically broad Minnesota accent in "Fargo." And, oh yes, that wild card Madonna has to figure somewhere for "Evita." But in Oscar history, the greatest performances often go unrecognized. Hollywood is so notoriously shortsighted, that the shattering performances by Ms. Blethyn and Ms. Watson in their small independent films may not register. Ms. Blethyn's character, a dithery English factory worker who flutters about her drab London flat in a state of tearful agitation, is not the sort of noble crusader Hollywood notices when it recognizes working-class women. If Ms. Watson's character in "Breaking the Waves" belongs to a favorite Hollywood archetype -- the whore with a heart of gold -- she is a bit too loony for comfort. The character conducts long, animated conversations with God in which He speaks through her. And her descent into prostitution has nothing to do with financial need, male exploitation or even excess hormones. She sells her body to save the life of a quadriplegic husband whose will to live is sustained by her graphic sexual accounts. It may be the year of the woman, but a modern-day amalgam of Mary Magdalene and Joan of Arc, whose death literally sets heavenly bells to ringing, may be too much celestial hoopla even for bally-hooey Hollywood.