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Scouting the Dodgers
Wednesday, October 04, 2006
BY DAN GRAZIANO
Star-Ledger Staff
Breaking down the Dodgers with the help of an opposing team's scout who requested anonymity:
AT THE PLATE
"Everybody says the Mets have the only good offense in the National League," our scout said. "But the Dodgers offense is underrated." He's correct, of course. The Dodgers led the NL in on-base percentage and in hits, and at their best they're a team that can put pressure on pitchers by working counts and getting on base. It starts at the top, where Rafael Furcal is "a true leadoff guy -- pesky and dangerous -- even with a little power if you let him get his arms extended." Kenny Lofton "plays like a
veteran still," even if he's "clearly lost a lot of bat speed." Our scout also liked rookie catcher Russell Martin, who's been hitting seventh or eighth in the batting order and "gives them some strength down there in front of the pitcher."
The key, however, will be the performance of the veteran middle of the Dodgers' order. As anyone who followed the Red Sox in the early part of this decade knows, first baseman Nomar Garciaparra does not fit the selective mold of the rest of the lineup. He is, however, "still a very good hitter -- a guy who could put the team on his back if he got hot." He's backed up by J.D. Drew, who has as much power as anybody but "is only real good when he gets aggressive," and Jeff Kent, who "can still hit it out
of any park," even if he, like Lofton, is not the player he once was. And our scout also mentioned a "secret weapon" in pinch-hitter Olmedo Saenz, who likely will see action as soon as the Mets bring lefty Pedro Feliciano out of the bullpen.
ON THE MOUND
"Derek Lowe is pitching right now as well as he ever has in his career," our scout told us. "His sinker is absolutely awesome right now, with power and command." Lowe has a chance to get the Mets off to an unsettling start in Game 1, especially if their young hitters such as Jose Reyes and David Wright get impatient and start jumping at the sinker. "They'll just roll over it and ground out. Their best hope is to wait him out and hope he starts making mistakes up in the zone."
Behind Lowe, however, the Dodgers have problems in the rotation. "(Greg) Maddux is throwing his fastball in the low 80s and is real hittable," the scout said. "A power lineup like the Mets should be able to have their way with him." Brad Penny "throws gas, when he's right," but he hasn't been right since the All-Star Game. Penny has had back problems in the second half of the season and has been hit hard. The Dodgers are likely to use lefty Hong-Chih Kuo, who pitched well against the Mets at Shea
Stadium last month, because they believe that wasn't a fluke -- that the Mets really are worse against left-handed pitching. The Mets' lefty hitters will have to "lay off the slider" if they want to have a chance against Kuo. "His fastball is hittable when he gets behind in the count and has to throw it over the middle. That's the key. Wait him out."
The Dodgers are weaker in the bullpen. They have almost no middle relief, and both eighth-inning guy Jonathan Broxton and closer Takashi Saito are rookies and have had shaky moments.
IN THE FIELD
"They don't have a lot of mobility or athleticism on defense," our scout said. "Everybody knows Furcal is great, but the rest of the infield doesn't get to many balls." Garciaparra is playing out of position at first base, and the health problems of recent seasons have left him less than mobile. Kent is an old player now, and neither Wilson Betemit nor Julio Lugo brings much at third base. "J.D. Drew is their only above-average outfielder," since Lofton "can't cover ground anymore."
IN THE DUGOUT
The thing everybody in this town remembers -- and always will remember -- about Grady Little is that he waited too long to take Pedro Martinez out of Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS against the Yankees when he was managing the Red Sox. That cost him a chance to get to the World Series. It also cost him his job. But those who focus on that one (admittedly brutal and inexcusable) mistake miss the fact that Little was a very good, very successful manager with the Red Sox. His teams always won, and his players
always played hard for him. It's been the same in L.A., where he's guided the Dodgers through a dizzying season of streaks and injuries, managed playing time for his rookies and kept the clubhouse from falling apart when things got tough. He obviously has yet to prove himself as a playoff manager, but Little is skilled and will certainly not be a liability.
WHY DODGERS WILL WIN
If Furcal and Lofton get on base and Garciaparra, Drew and Kent can hit the ball hard enough to drive them in. The Dodgers have to get on base and make the other team's pitcher work, or else they have no chance.
WHY DODGERS WILL LOSE
If their starters can't control the game and last at least six innings a night. The mishmash of guys like Brett Tomko and Joe Beimel isn't good enough to reliably deliver games into the hands of the guys at the back end of the bullpen.
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