標題:Will the Democrats Commit Political Suicide?
新聞來源:http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,549103,00.html
(需有正確連結)
Democratic voters just can't make up their minds between Barack Obama and
Hillary Clinton. In Pennsylvania, they denied him victory but spared her
defeat. It will be the job of the superdelegates to commit political murder
-- but will it mean suicide for the party?
After the confetti has been shaken out of the hair and the party balloons
have deflated, what is left from Tuesday's election night is a
disturbing message: There is nothing to celebrate.
The winner is the loser. But the loser is not the winner. Clinton's victory
was not big enough to snatch the nomination from Obama. But neither was his
star power enough to woo the voters in the center.
It seems the race is jinxed: He was handed a defeat when he needed a victory,
and she secured a victory when only an improbable triumph would have helped
her.
Barring a miracle, Clinton's role at the Democratic Party convention in
Denver in August will be limited to guest speaker. But Obama will go into the
actual presidential election badly damaged.
On the night of Obama's first primary win, in the state of Iowa, this
columnist wrote (more...): "(Obama) has scant hope of reaching the White
House. He's too young, too inexperienced, too vague, and for many Americans,
too black. His magic words about the era of change, of hope, of an America he
will unite -- all that will evaporate like morning mist."
This prediction was confirmed in Pennsylvania. The euphoria over the
46-year-old senator has until today only gripped 50 percent of Democratic
voters -- who make up only a third of registered voters. The Obama flame
burns, but only in parts of society. Obama receives more goodwill than actual
votes. And his press is better than his real situation.
Obama's chances of a successful run for the White House are anything but
rosy. There are three reasons why his presidential run will be difficult:
First, a politician who favors social policies has a tough time in a
recession. In his desperation over the persistent rejection by white working
class voters, Obama has shot himself in the foot.
He recently promised voters the moon at a trade union convention:
State-subsidized health insurance. A $100 billion infrastructure program for
the construction of bridges and roads. A $160 billion ecological investment
program. Tax exemption for all pensioners with an annual income of under
$50,000. Tax cuts for all middle-income groups. An increase in the minimum
wage, which is currently set at $7.50 an hour.
But the voter groups which are decisive for any president distrust people who
claim to be miracle workers. The union officials clapped, but many of its
members lowered their heads pensively.
These people want new jobs, but they don't want new government debt. They
want leadership, but Obama is only flashing his wallet.
Secondly, he is an opponent of war in a time of war. The United States is
fighting a lonely and increasingly difficult war on two fronts, in Iraq and
Afghanistan. He would like to finish the war quickly -- but the majority of
Americans would like to win it first.
Past experience of former Democratic candidates shows that, in times of war,
candidates who strike a pacifist tone have slim chances. While war was raging
in Vietnam, Richard Nixon moved into the White House. George W. Bush won a
landslide victory while the Iraq campaign was in full swing. Up to now,
Hillary Clinton has expressed caution as far as the war is concerned.
Thirdly, he is a party favorite in times of dwindling party loyalty. He
excites the active members of the Democratic Party, the officials, the young
people and the university graduates, not to mention that part of the party --
a part which should not be underestimated -- which is to be found within
newspapers and TV stations. Up to 35,000 people came to his meetings in
Pennsylvania.
But the further one moves from the ranks of the true believers in the
direction of the undecided -- from the left to the center, from young to old,
from student to worker -- the lower the excitement over Obama. In
Pennsylvania, 61 percent of older voters chose Clinton, as did 68 percent of
Catholics, 65 percent of workers and over 70 percent of voters in rural
areas. There, where life is hard, serious and sometimes monotonous, Obama
struggles to make himself heard.
The American electoral system gives the center exceptional political power.
Since most states are firmly in the hands of one party, attention is focused
on the so-called swing states, large states such as Ohio, Texas, California
and Pennsylvania which are sometimes Democratic and sometimes Republican.
Obama has won many US states -- but not these swing states.
After Tuesday, the situation for the Democratic Party is no easier. The party
seems to be cursed in this primary season, as if Obama's supporters and
Clinton's fans had sealed a diabolical pact. They refuse him victory but
spare her defeat.
But this game is approaching its terrible end. The superdelegates, who are
independent from the party base, will have to commit a political murder in
the coming months. Will it be Obama or Clinton? For the party, the decision
could amount to political suicide.
--
「每當我聽議員發表政見時，我都在想那是不是他所想的，還只是講來騙選票的。這似乎
是政客的主要問題。所以我總是好奇﹕誠信與為政府工作之間的關係。」
Richard Feynman<What Do You Care What Other People Think>
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 140.116.102.140