[新聞] 為何歐巴馬是會輸的

[pursuistmi (common people)]

標題:Why Obama looks vulnerable

By Gideon Rachman

Published: August 25 2008 17:36 | Last updated: August 25 2008 22:30

The Democratic party will whip up some euphoria in Denver this week. But a
dark cloud of anxiety hovers over the party convention.

這禮拜民主黨在丹佛會把士氣打得高昂些。但一片烏雲般的焦慮已然籠罩了黨大會。

A horrible truth is beginning to dawn on the Democrats. Barack Obama is not
the “once in a generation” political genius they thought they had
discovered. On the contrary, he is a weak candidate for the presidency.

一個可怕的真相即將對民主黨展露。歐巴馬不再是民主黨人以為他們找到的「一世代
一次」的政治天才了。恰好相反，他是個脆弱的總統參選人。

With a feeble economy, an unpopular war and the Republicans in disarray, the
Democrats should win the presidential election in a canter. But Mr Obama, the
Democratic nominee, is neck and neck with John McCain, his Republican rival.
For sure, Mr Obama has some real assets – intelligence, grace, good looks,
star quality. But history suggests that he is a very risky candidate.

現在經濟低迷、一場不受歡迎的戰爭正進行、共和黨陷入混亂，似乎民主黨應該可輕騎
過關贏得選戰。但民主黨提名人歐巴馬與他的共和黨對手馬坎竟然打了個平手。當然，
歐巴馬有些真資產─智慧、優雅、好容貌、明星架勢。但歷史暗示，他或許是個風險
極高的候選人。

Since 1968, the Democrats have won just three out of 10 presidential races.
Their two successful candidates – Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton – were both
white, centrist governors from the southern US. Whenever the Democrats
nominated a liberal from outside the South – George McGovern, Walter
Mondale, Michael Dukakis, John Kerry – they lost.

自1968年始，民主黨十次總統大選中只贏過三次。他們兩位成功的候選人─卡特和
克林頓─都是白人，中間派南部州長。每當民主黨提名了非南部的自由派─McGovern，
Mondale，Dukakis，Kerry─他們就輸。

Mr Obama is a northerner. He is a liberal. He is a former college professor.
And he is black. A bold choice, under the circumstances.

歐巴馬是個北方人。他是自由派。他是前任大學教授。他是黑人。這些條件下，他是個
挺大膽的選擇。

Mr Obama’s unusual personal history – the son of a black Kenyan and a white
American, brought up partly in Indonesia – allowed him to write a
fascinating, introspective autobiography, Dreams from My Father. But his life
story may seem a little exotic to most American voters. Mr McCain’s early
life could easily be made into a Hollywood movie.Mr Obama’s youth is more of
an off-Broadway play.

歐巴馬獨特的個人歷史─肯亞黑人與美國白人之子，在印尼長大─足以讓他寫本精彩絕倫
又有深度的自傳，《來自父親的夢想》。但他的生命歷程似乎對多數美國選民來說太異國
了。馬坎的早年可以輕鬆地被拍成電影。歐巴馬的少年則多像齣外百老匯劇碼。

Mr McCain can tell tales of heroism as a prisoner of war in Vietnam. Mr Obama
was a student at elite universities on a voyage of self-discovery. He writes:
“To avoid being mistaken for a sellout, I chose my friends carefully. The
more politically active black students. The foreign students. The Chicanos.
The Marxist professors and structural feminists...we discussed neo-colonialism,
Franz Fanon, Eurocentrism and patriarchy." Even allowing for the self-mocking
tone, this is not exactly mainstream America.

馬坎可以講些身為越南戰俘的英雄故事。歐巴馬則是個在頂尖大學尋找自我的學生。
他寫道，「為了避免被誤認成叛徒，我慎選我的朋友。積極投入政治活動的黑人學生。
外籍學生。墨西哥裔美國人。馬克斯學派教授和結構派女性主義者...我們討論新殖民
主義，法濃，歐洲中心論，和父權制。就算不挑剔那自嘲的語調，這也不是主流美國。

It is clear that Mr Obama lacks experience. But that, in itself, need not be a
bar to the White House. The same was true of other Democrats who won the
presidency--John Kennedy, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton.

歐巴馬缺乏經驗是明顯的。但缺乏經驗本身並不構成前往白宮的絆腳石。這對其他贏得
總統大選的民主黨人士來說也是成立的。

Race, however, is a bigger problem. So far, the fact that Mr Obama is an
African-American may actually have helped him. As Shelby Steele, an academic,
writes: "When you can credibly run for the presidency only two years out of the
Illinois state legislature...then something in the society is drawing you
forward."

但種族是個大問題，目前，歐巴馬的黑人身份或許還幫了他不少。如一位學者Steele
寫到，「當你才離開伊利諾州議會兩年就能真的參選總統...那就是社會中有力量帶你
向前。」

But Democratic primaries--with a high proportion of black and white liberal
voters--are one thing. A general election is quite another matter. And
notoriously, even in the Democratic contest, Mr Obama struggled to pick up the
votes of the white working class in key states such as Pennsylvania. A recent
New York Times poll hinted at just how high a barrier Mr Obama may have to
hurdle. Whilst only 5 per cent of American voters said they would not vote for
a black candidate, 27 per cent said they thought the US was not yet ready for
a black president.

但民主黨初選─其中有高比例的黑人與白人自由派選民─是一件事。總統大選又是全然
不同。且不妙的是，連在民主黨初選中，歐巴馬都不能在關鍵州如賓州拿下藍領階級的
白人選票。一份最近的紐約時報民調指出了歐巴馬可能必須要跨過的阻礙有多高。雖然
只有百分之五的美國選民說他們不會投給黑人候選人，百分之二十七的選民表示他們認為
美國還沒準備好選出一位黑人總統。

Mr Obama has campaigned as a candidate who happens to be black, rather than as
a black candidate. In doing so, he has offered white voters the reassurance
that he is not one of those African-Americans who talks endlessly about race
and tries to make them feel bad. On the contrary, voting for Mr Obama can make
you feel good about yourself and about race relations in America.

歐巴馬希望把自己詮釋為一位正好黑一些的候選人，而非黑人候選人。如此做，他讓白人
選民能安心，相信他不是那種成天談種族並且讓白人心理難受的那種非裔美國人。相反地
，投給歐巴馬可以讓你心理好受，並且對美國的種族問題感受好點。

So there was a certain, cynical brilliance in the McCain campaign's accusation
that it is Mr Obama who is "playing the race card". This challenged the idea
that Mr Obama is a "post-racial" candidate--and it played to white resentments
about what some regard as special treatment for black people. The New York
Times poll showed that 26 per cent of American whites believe they have been
the victim of discrimination.

所以在馬坎陣營裡會燃起智慧而挖苦的指控，強調是歐巴馬才在「打種族牌」。這個想法
挑戰了歐巴馬作為「後種族」候選人的想法─且還挑起了一些白人對於黑人特權的厭惡
意識。紐約時報民調顯示，百分之二十六的美國白人相信他們被歧視，成為受害者。

The special sensitivity of the racial issue places the Obama campaign in a
dilemma when it comes to responding to attacks. It is conventional wisdom
among Democrates that previous candidates--in particular, Mr Dukakis and
Mr Kerry--lost because they were too slow to respond to negative campaigning
by the Republicans.

種族議題的敏感性讓歐巴馬陣營在回應類似攻擊時面臨兩難。在民主黨內，討論候選人
如Dukakis和Kerry之所以會輸掉選舉是因為他們太慢反擊共和黨負面文宣已經是老生
常談了。

But if the Obama campaign suspects the Republicans of appealing to racism, they
will have to think twice about levelling the accusation. Any such charge will
be leapt upon by a controversy-hungry media--placing race at the centre of
the election campaign. And that can only help the McCain campaign.

但如果歐巴馬陣營懷疑共和黨在操弄族群，他們若要把指控升級則還需三思。任何這類的
指控會被可望議題的媒體給一口咬住，把種族議題擺在這次選舉的中心位置。而這只能
拉抬馬坎的選情。

Of course, Mr McCain has his own vulnerabilities. He is about to turn 72--and
some opinion polls suggest that voters are even more reluctant to vote for a
pensioner than they are to vote for a black person. His inability to remember
how many houses he owns suggests that he is either extraordinarily rich or
slightly senile--neither idea is helpful to his cause.

當然，馬坎有自己的脆弱面。他即將72歲了，而有些民調顯示，比起把票投給黑人，
選民更不願把票投給領老人年金的老人。馬坎無法記得自己有多少房子顯示他要不是
超級有錢不然就是有些年老─任何想法都不會對他有利。

The structural factors that the Democrats think favor them this year certainly
exist. Americans are in a morose mood about the economy and the country in
general. The unpopularity of President George W. Bush will act as a drag on
Republicans. Mr Obama has raised an awful lot of money, run a skilful campaign
that beat the formidable Clinton machine and has an army of highly enthusiastic
supporters.

民主黨自己認為有利的結構性因素當然存在。美國人對於經濟和國家發展普遍悲觀。
總統布希的低支持率會傷害共和黨。歐巴馬募到了一堆錢，面對強大的克林頓陣營
打贏了場很技巧的選戰，且他還有一股非常積極的支持者。

But he is still a very vulnerable candidate. Can he lose? Yes he can.

但他仍然是個非常脆弱的總統參選人。他可不可能輸？他可能輸。

[email protected]

Post and read comments at Gideon Rachman’s blog

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008


http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/dc529668-729e-11dd-983b-0000779fd18c,dwp_uuid=
729ab242-9cb1-11db-8ec6-0000779e2340.html

新聞來源:                                 (需有正確連結)

--

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 60.245.119.174
※ 編輯: pursuistmi      來自: 60.245.119.174       (08/26 13:47)
推 qilai:作者是不是太強調種族了一點?
→ pursuistmi:這次種族議題只是被壓著不談..這的確是極大的隱憂
→ shouri:選馬侃 救地球~~~
推 yeh67:歷練不足  選民心底不踏實
推 bluewzy:我不看好民主黨的這次選舉
推 Beretta:Republicans will win for sure
推 ncyc:看了下民主黨全代會，我覺得歐巴馬兩個女兒上台與老爸做衛星
→ ncyc:連線的片段，感覺上有點怪怪的...
推 overwhelming:原來這就是自由跟民主的模範啊 (煙~)
推 swatteam:任何人都可以輕易看見這個制度的缺失和不完美
→ swatteam:這不叫模範不然該叫什麼?
推 Su22:這週的亞洲週刊也酸了台灣的民主一頓...
※ 編輯: pursuistmi      來自: 118.169.28.144       (08/26 22:56)
→ ieor:looks vulnerable=是會輸的??
推 Vicky1016:HC敗陣後 就改挺MaCain了 這是我第一次支持共和黨
→ pursuistmi:ieor我想了一陣子...本來想用看起來脆弱之類的
→ pursuistmi:但想一想重點是會不會輸..是會輸代表機率高而不是絕對
推 hawardhsz:若翻成居劣勢呢?!接下來就看McCain的逆轉秀了
推 Sarkozy:翻成「看來岌岌可危」如何？
推 tcancer:「有機可趁」怎樣?
→ pursuistmi:我今天想了一下..."歐巴馬看來有罩門"???
推 McCain:原本不敢抱太大期望 現在有點機會了XD
→ pursuistmi:我決定了...用罩門
→ pursuistmi:馬坎先生：原本不敢抱太大期望 現在有點機會了XD
推 bizkit:標題翻的怪怪的@@
→ pursuistmi:現在再看..我承認更怪了...
→ pursuistmi:算了我投降...
→ pursuistmi:選情不甚樂觀...應該不怪了