推 MRZ:真是標準的自由派危言聳聽悲觀論啊XD 08/29 21:58
推 shouri:歐巴瑪不倒 台灣就會倒啊 08/29 23:52
推 qilai:大神指的危言聳聽是指馬侃當選的可能or當選後的"慘狀"?XD 08/30 00:02
推 MRZ:就是當選後 08/30 00:27
原文網址：http://kuso.cc/3Oen
McCain could yet ignite a bonfire of the liberal vanities
Electing Obama would be one of America's noblest gestures of historical
redemption - which is why it may not happen
Martin Kettle
The Guardian,
Friday August 29 2008
Maybe it hardly bears thinking about the morning of November
5 if Barack Obama has lost to John McCain the previous day.
And it may seem perverse to think about it at all on a day
like today, when Obama yet again commands the stage. But let's
try to do it, right now, partly because the closeness of the
polls suggests a narrow McCain win is a real possibility —
partly because there has been so much underlying nervousness,
as well as renewed exhilaration, among Democrats in Denver this
week; and partly just out of common political prudence.
想想看，如果你在11月5日的早上起來，想到前一天是歐巴馬輸給了馬
侃，可能會是一件難以想像的事。尤其是在今天，歐巴馬正在舞台上風
風光光的時候，會想這種事的人可能是頭殼壞去了。但是我們應該要設
想這種狀況會發生，部分原因是因為雙方民調很接近，馬侃最後險勝不
是不可能。同時也因為這個禮拜在丹佛舉行的民主黨提名大會，歡欣的
氣氛之下也暗藏緊繃不安的情緒。也因為在政治這檔事上，謹慎點總是
不為過。
So, why might McCain win on November 4? I think there are five
main reasons to consider.
所以，為什麼11月4日馬侃有機會勝選？我認為有5個主要的因素。
The first is that these remain insecure times. The economic
downturn has been very real in the US, in spite of yesterday's
good growth figures. America's fear of rising fuel prices
remains a potent electoral issue, laced as it now is with the
fear that high oil prices are lining the coffers of America's
enemies in places such as Russia, Iran and Venezuela. American
soldiers are fighting difficult wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
McCain has a big poll lead on national security, foreign policy
and ability to deal with a crisis. Every Russian tank rumbling
around the Caucasus is harvesting votes for McCain — and the
electorate may prefer to entrust the country to a leader with
warrior credentials than take a chance on a visionary neophyte.
第一個因素是：現今不穩定的政經情勢。雖然昨天公佈的經濟成長數
字不錯，但是經濟衰退對美國人來說還是個切身的問題。美國所擔憂
的燃料價格上漲問題依舊是具影響力的選舉議題。尤其現在又要擔心
高油價使美國的敵人的荷包（如俄羅斯，伊朗，委內瑞拉）越來越充
足。美軍在伊拉克和阿富汗戰場上面臨艱困的戰事。馬侃在國家安全
，外交政策，還有處理危機的能力方面民調都大幅領先。在高加索地
區轟隆馳騁的每一部坦克可說都是馬侃的助選員，選民可能會比較放
心把國家交給一個有軍人歷練的領導人，而非在一個滿腹理想主義的
新手身上壓寶。
The second reason why McCain might win is that this election
is no longer about George Bush. America in late 2008 has a
president who is a member of the political living dead. His
name was barely mentioned at the Democratic convention this
week. Along with Dick Cheney he will make an early appearance
at St Paul on Monday at the Republican convention; after that,
he's out of it. And with him may go many of his negatives. That
leaves McCain some elbow room to fight the campaign his own
way. McCain is a tough campaigner. He is also a smart one. He
could do well in the televised debates. Compared with the
midterms in 2006, the Democrats may find it hard to make this
an election about Bush.
第二個馬侃可能勝選的原因是：在這場選舉裡，布希已經不是主角了。
現任美國總統已經變成一個政治圈的活死人，這個禮拜的民主黨大會上
他的名字很少被提及。布希禮拜一會在聖保羅的共和黨提名大會上與錢
尼一同亮相，但在此之後，他就沒戲份了。他的負面評價和影響也可能
隨之而去。因此馬侃就有比較多的空間以他自己的方式來打選戰。馬侃
不只是個堅強的候選人，他也是個聰明的候選人。他在電視辯論上是可
以有好表現的。跟2006年的期中選舉相較，民主黨這次要把布希作為攻
擊的主線是沒那麼容易的。
Which brings us to reason No 3. American presidential elections
are always close these days. Bush beat John Kerry with just 51%
of the popular vote in 2004 and was neck-and-neck with Al Gore
in 2000. In the electoral college Bush won by 286-251 against
Kerry and by 271-266 against Gore. In the past four presidential
elections — even the two that Bill Clinton won — no Democratic
candidate has ever polled more than 49%. Democratic landslides
have not been in fashion since 1964. This year's polls — in
which Obama's average lead is now just 1.8% — are beginning to
point to yet another 50:50 election. In these close races discipline,
negative campaigning, and get-out-the vote organisation in the
battleground states all matter. Over the years these have been
Republican strengths, not Democratic ones.
這也就帶到了第三個原因：近幾年來美國總統大選結果都很接近。布希
在2004年擊敗凱瑞時普選得票率只有51％，2000與高爾競選時得票率不
相上下。選舉團票數上，布希以286-251擊敗凱瑞，以271-266擊敗高爾
。在過去四次總統大選中，沒有一個民主黨候選人得票率超過49％，就
連柯林頓獲勝的那兩次也一樣。自1964年之後，民主黨大勝就很少見。
今年的民調裡，歐巴馬平均僅領先1.8％，顯示這次很有可能又是旗鼓相
當的選舉態勢。在這種緊繃的選舉中，紀律、負面競選手段、在戰情激
烈的州的催票組織都會影響選情。一直以來，這些面向都是共和黨的強
項，而非民主黨的長處。
Recent polls also point to the fourth piece of good news for
McCain: voters may be suffering from Obama fatigue. Obama is
still fighting a campaign that is centred on self. His own story,
his own vision and his own uniqueness are at the heart of his
message. He consciously takes the whole weight of the campaign
on his own slim shoulders, as he did again last night by taking
his acceptance speech out of the convention hall and into the
local football stadium, where he spoke against a backdrop of
Greek pillars. Hubris? What if the nation that fell in love
with Obama in the first phase of his great campaign decides he
is yesterday's rock star as the real election nears. I think
Obama is well aware of this — but voters don't just want big
vision and soaring oratory.
最近的民調也指出了對馬侃有利的第四個因素：選民可能會厭倦歐巴馬
。歐巴馬的競選主軸仍舊在他自己身上。他的個人故事、理想、獨特性
是他所傳遞訊息的主要部分。他特意將整個選舉的重心擔在自己瘦弱的
肩上，如同他昨晚選擇在當地的足球場發表接受提名演說，選擇背後有
一群希臘柱的地方作演說場地，而不在大會會場。這表示他很自大嗎？
那些在歐巴馬競選初期喜歡上他的人，萬一隨著選舉接近感覺變質，那
歐巴馬豈不成了過氣的搖滾明星？我認為歐巴馬自己很清楚這一點，但
選民要的不只是宏大的遠景和滔滔不絕的口才。
The final reason is simply Obama's race. The nomination of a
black man to be president is not something marginal but something
massive. It goes to the heart of whether America's self-identity
is genuinely multiracial, or whether , in spite of everything,
it is still white. This election isn't just about the possibility
of a black president, but the possibility of a black first family.
It asks white voters to see themselves embodied and represented
by African-Americans, and to vote to be led by black people.
This is something bigger than electing a woman leader would
be, were that on offer. Race and slavery are America's original
sin. The election of Obama would be, beyond question, one of
the noblest gestures of historical redemption that Americans
have ever been called upon to make. But that is precisely why
it may not happen.
最後一個因素是歐巴馬的種族身份。提名一個黑人參選總統並不是件
小事，它是件大事。這個提名觸及一個核心問題：美國的自我認同到
底是不是真的能包含多種族？或著到頭來，還是白人為主？這次選舉
並不只是選一個黑人作總統，它同時也可能形成一個黑人第一家庭。
白人選民必須要願意由非裔美人作他們的代表，也要願意選一個黑人
來領導他們。這其中的意義比選一個女性作領導人更大。種族問題和
奴隸制度是美國的原罪。毫無疑問的，選擇歐巴馬會是美國人前所未
有，最偉大的一個歷史性贖罪舉措，但正因為很偉大，所以這樣的事
有可能不會發生。
So if, on January 20 2009, it is McCain, not Obama, who stands
in the winter's air on Capitol Hill to be sworn in as Bush's
successor, what would that mean for America and the world? The
first thing to say is not to exaggerate the domestic or even
the international impact; McCain would be the president of an
already humbled, not newly triumphalist, conservatism. The economy
would dominate his agenda. The next, umbilically linked point
is to remember that McCain would have to work with a Congress
in which, on the same election day, the Democrats are likely
to strengthen their majority in the House of Representatives
and secure firm control of the Senate. He could very easily
find himself a weak president.
所以，如果在2009年1月20日的冬日寒風中於國會山莊宣誓就職，繼
任布希職位的人是馬侃而非歐巴馬的話，對美國和全世界這代表著什
麼？首先，我們不應該誇大美國國內，甚至國際間受到的影響。馬侃
當上總統的話，他代表的會是一個姿態降低的保守主義勢力，而非因
勝選得意洋洋的保守主義勢力。經濟會是馬侃要處理的首要議題。另
外一個重點是，馬侃必須要和國會合作，而民主黨在選舉同日也很可
能強化他們在眾議院的多數地位，並且鞏固對參議院的掌控。馬侃的
權力有可能因此受限。
Yet there could be no disguising the lessons for the Democrats,
who would have lost three winnable presidential contests in a
row. If Obama loses, there will not be another African-American
nominee for at least a generation. Hillary Clinton might have
the consolation that she would become, overnight, the overwhelming
favourite to finally win the Democratic nomination in 2012. But
who would bet against such a divisive figure not extending the
losing streak from three to four? It would begin to look as if
the only way of getting a Democrat into the White House would
be as the result of an armed uprising.
然而毫無疑問的民主黨會受到教訓，屆時他們就會是連續輸掉三場有
勝算的總統大選。如果歐巴馬落敗，至少一個世代之內都不會再有非
裔美人獲得提名。希拉蕊也許會覺得稍感安慰，因為她一夕之間會成
為最有可能贏得2012年民主黨提名的人選。但是希拉蕊是這樣一個容
易分裂黨的人物，誰敢保證她不會讓民主黨連續第四次敗北呢？屆時
，除非發動軍事政變，民主黨人也許永遠進不了白宮。
All that would be as nothing to the global dismay that would
greet the election of President McCain. Much of the world would
simply despair of the American people — and so would many
Americans. Anti-Americanism would have a new recruiting sergeant,
and global confidence in the democratic progressive project would
suffer a historic blow. November 5 would be a bonfire night of
the liberal vanities. I tend to think it won't happen that way
— but it certainly could. And it may all be just 10 short weeks
away.
所有這些跟全世界的失望相較起來，都不算什麼。全球很多人會對美
國人絕望，甚至很多美國人也會非常失望。新一波反美浪潮會掀起，
全世界對民主進程的信心會大大受挫。11月5日會成為自由派理想被摧
毀的一天。我覺得事情的走向應該不會是這樣，但這種事的確有可能
發生。而且有可能在10個禮拜之後，就會發生。
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