Re: [新聞] 準備好了 歐巴馬、麥肯擬對戰策略

[swallow73 (吃素，減碳，救地球)]

我猜上篇新聞大概是從這篇紐約時報的報導編譯過來的。不過有興趣的話，
原文還是值得一讀，因為國內編譯新聞似乎常常自動篩掉相當部份的細節，
而這些細節很不幸的有時候也頗為重要。

隨口提兩點上篇編譯新聞忽略掉，我個人認為也值得一提的部份。首先是
截至目前為止，McCain募了8000萬美元，手頭上目前有1100萬的現金。
Obama募了2億四千萬，即使經過初選的大量消耗，銀行內仍然有超過
McCain四倍以上的現金。雖然黨部方面，共和黨募到的3100萬(這筆錢可以
直接拿來支援McCain)遠比民主黨的600萬來的多；不過綜合來說，Obama
仍然享有競選經費上的優勢。

另外，Obama競選團隊雖然利用初選過程建立強大的全國競選網路，但由於
民主黨黨部為了懲罰提前舉行初選的Flordia跟Michigan，禁止候選人在該
處競選；在初選正式結束前，Obama團隊仍然受到這項規定的限制，因此這
兩州也成了目前Obama團隊在組織上最弱的地方。

==
回應一點推ncyc大之前在14154的推文

推 ncyc:這好像有點太囂張了...

n大應該是在批評Obama還沒正式取得提名，就說要跟McCain舉辦聯合競選活動吧。
不過從紐時這篇報導看來，這個提議是McCain陣營首先倡議的，McCain陣營
也早已鎖定Obama為大選時的對手，那這樣看來就不是Obama態度囂張了。

==
隨著這篇新聞，紐約時報有一張兩方陣營認定會成為大選時關鍵戰場的州的圖表。
這張圖表我認為整理的不錯，想直接看原圖的板友可以看這裡:

http://tinyurl.com/597cgn

不過為了照顧因為種種原因，偏好BBS介面的板友，我整理如下:

鐵票州
民主黨:172票(Electoral Votes)
共和黨:200票

戰場州
04年由Kerry勝出: 80票
04年由Bush勝出 : 86票

另外，由於在Pennsylvania跟Ohio取得令人印象深刻的大勝，
Clinton女士及其支持者賣力的推銷能得到大選時關鍵州的
選舉人票是Clinton女士最大的優勢之一。

或許我們可以藉由這個表格來檢視這個論點客不客觀。

去掉還未舉行初選的Oregon(7票)，Florida(27票)跟Michigan(17票)
後；
Clinton女士在初選贏得了
Ohio (20票), Pennsylvania (21票), New Hampshire (4票)
Nevada (5票), New Mexico (5)票)
總共是55票

Obama贏得了

Washington (11票), Minnesota (10票), Wisconsin (10票),
Virginia (13票), Colorado (9票), Iowa (7票)
總共是 60票

Obama占優勢的州總共有60票，比Clinton女士的55票還多。

如果要爭論Florida若能按時程舉行初選，Clinton女士將順利勝出
別忘了根據稍後的民調，Obama也在Michigan略占優勢，在2/17號
後所做的三次對比式民調，Obama vs McCain也都比Clinton vs McCain的組
合略占上風(http://usaelectionpolls.com/2008/general-election/michigan.html)
；再加上5/20才舉行初選，但Obama占了相當程度優勢的Oregon；
加起來Clinton女士仍以 82票(55+Florida 27)落後於Obama的84票
(60+ Michigan 17+ Oregon 7)。

從這樣計算看來，Clinton女士雖然更有機會拿下Florida、Pennsylvania、
Ohio三個非常high profile的swing state(近來的對比民調也證實了
這一點)；然而在選舉人票的計算上卻並未占有優勢。Obama勝出的
swing state的確都不是那麼的大，但是總合加起來所掌握的選舉人票還是比較多。
如果要"拿Obama贏的多是大選時毫無機會的紅州，Clinton贏的多是大選時
重要的大州"這點來爭論Clinton比Obama更適合代表民
主黨參選，得先考慮一下上面那個計算。


Washington (Kerry,04)  11票

      民主黨  共和黨
2004    7%
2000    6%
1996   12%
1992   11%
1988    2%
1984            13%
1980            12%


Oregon (Kerry, 04) 7票

      民主黨  共和黨
2004    4%
2000    0%
1996    8%
1992   10%
1988    5%
1984            12%
1980            10%

Navada (Bush, 04) 5票

      民主黨  共和黨
2004            3%
2000            4%
1996     1%
1992     3%
1988            21%
1984            34%
1980            36%

Colorado (Bush, 04) 9票

      民主黨  共和黨
2004            5%
2000            8%
1996            1%
1992     4%
1988            8%
1984           28%
1980           24%

New Mexico (Bush, 04) 5票

      民主黨  共和黨
2004            1%
2000     0%
1996     7%
1992     9%
1988            5%
1984           21%
1980           18%


Minnesota (Kerry, 04) 10票

      民主黨  共和黨
2004     4%
2000     2%
1996    16%
1992    12%
1988     7%
1984     0%
1980     4%


Iowa (Bush, 04) 7票

      民主黨  共和黨
2004            1%
2000     0%
1996    10%
1992     8%
1988    10%
1984            7%
1980           13%

Wisconsin (Kerry, 04) 10票

      民主黨  共和黨
2004     0%
2000     0%
1996    10%
1992     4%
1988     4%
1984             9%
1980             5%

Michigan (Kerry, 04) 17票
      民主黨  共和黨
2004     3%
2000     5%
1996    13%
1992     7%
1988            8%
1984           19%
1980            7%

Ohio (Bush, 04) 20票
      民主黨  共和黨
2004            2%
2000            4%
1996     3%
1992     2%
1988            11%
1984            19%
1980            11%

Pennsylvania (Kerry, 04) 21票

      民主黨  共和黨
2004     2%
2000     4%
1996     9%
1992     9%
1988            2%
1984            7%
1980            7%

New Hapshire (Kerry, 04) 4票

      民主黨  共和黨
2004     1%
2000             1%
1996    10%
1992     1%
1988             26%
1984             38%
1980             29%

Virginia (Bush,04) 13票
      民主黨  共和黨
2004            8%
2000            8%
1996            2%
1992            4%
1988           21%
1984           25%
1980           13%

Florida (Bush,04) 27票
      民主黨  共和黨
2004             5%
2000             0%
1996     6%
1992             2%
1988            22%
1984            31%
1980            17%




Already, Obama and McCain Map Fall Strategies

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/11/us/politics/11strategy.html?th&emc=th

Published: May 11, 2008
Senators John McCain and Barack Obama are already drawing up strategies for
taking each other on in the general election, focusing on the same groups —
 including independent voters and Latinos — and about a dozen states where
they think the contest is likely to be decided this fall, campaign aides
said.

In a sign of what could be an extremely unusual fall campaign, the two sides
said Saturday that they would be open to holding joint forums or unmoderated
debates across the country in front of voters through the summer. Mr. Obama,
campaigning in Oregon, said that the proposal, floated by Mr. McCain’s
advisers, was “a great idea.”

Even before Mr. Obama fully wraps up the Democratic presidential nomination,
he and Mr. McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, are starting to
assemble teams in the key battlegrounds, develop negative advertising and
engage each other in earnest on the issues and a combustible mix of other
topics, including age and patriotism.

Mr. McCain, of Arizona, will spend the next week delivering a series of
speeches on global warming, evidence of his intention to battle Mr. Obama for
independent voters, a group the two men have laid claim to. Those voters tend
to recoil from hard-edged partisan politics, and presumably would be
receptive to the kind of bipartisan forum that Mr. McCain and Mr. Obama
seemed open to on Saturday.

Clearly concerned that questions about such things as his association with
his former pastor had damaged his standing with independents, Mr. Obama, of
Illinois, is likely to embark on a summertime tour intended to highlight the
life story that was once central to his appeal. Preliminary plans include a
stop in Hawaii, his birthplace, and a major address there at Punchbowl
Cemetery, where his maternal grandfather, who fought in World War II, is
buried.

Mr. Obama’s campaign is firing up voter-registration efforts and sending
troops to Ohio and Pennsylvania, states that he lost in the primaries but
that his aides said he must win to capture the White House. Mr. McCain’s
advisers said they had tracked Mr. Obama’s struggles with blue-collar voters
there and would open campaign headquarters in both states in early June.

Beyond that, aides to the two men said Latino voters would be central to
victory in a swath of Western states now viewed as prime battlefields,
including Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico.

These decisions by Mr. McCain and Mr. Obama to look ahead to the fall reflect
their conclusion that it is only a matter of time before Senator Hillary
Rodham Clinton of New York steps away from the fight for the Democratic
nomination.

Mr. McCain is looking first to states where President Bush narrowly lost in
2004 and where Mr. Obama lost primaries, starting with New Hampshire and
Pennsylvania. Mr. Obama is looking to states where he won caucuses and
primaries — including some, like Virginia, that have been solidly Republican
in recent presidential elections — as well as others where he has
organizations in place.

And the two sides have produced television advertisements that will be rolled
out as soon as the Democratic contest is officially resolved. These
advertisements are directed less at promoting themselves than at undercutting
their opponents.

The Republican National Committee is planning a $19.5 million advertising
campaign to portray Mr. Obama, 46, as out of touch with the country and too
inexperienced to be commander in chief, seeking to put him on the defensive
before he can use his financial advantage against Mr. McCain, 71, party
officials said.

“In 1984, Ronald Reagan said, ‘I’m not going to exploit for political
purposes my opponent’s youth and inexperience,’ ” said Frank Donatelli,
the deputy chairman of the Republican National Committee. “Well, we are
going to exploit Obama’s youth and inexperience.”

On the Democratic side, Mr. Obama’s aides this week put finishing touches on
advertisements intended to tether Mr. McCain to Mr. Bush and chip away at his
image as a maverick, an identity that the aides said they found remained
strong with voters.

“By November, every voter will know that McCain is offering a third Bush
term,” said Mr. Obama’s campaign manager, David Plouffe.

Advisers to Mr. Obama said their research suggested that Mr. McCain,
notwithstanding his high profile in American politics for more than a decade,
was not well known to many voters. In particular, Mr. Obama’s aides said
they would highlight Mr. McCain’s opposition to abortion rights to try to
stem the flow of disaffected women who backed Mrs. Clinton in the primaries
and whom Mr. McCain’s aides said they would aggressively court.

The strategies reflect a lesson from the 2004 presidential campaign, when top
aides to Mr. Bush, some of whom are working for Mr. McCain today, began a
well-financed television campaign to define and undercut Senator John Kerry,
Democrat of Massachusetts, the moment he became his party’s nominee.

Mr. Obama’s advisers said they were mindful that he had not yet won the
nomination and that six contests remained. Still, they said it was crucial to
begin engaging Mr. McCain as soon possible.

Independent voters have been critical in presidential elections as the
country has become polarized along party lines. What makes this election
different is the extent to which Mr. Obama and Mr. McCain have turned to
independent voters for support throughout their careers.

Historically, independent voters have responded to specific issues and
concerns, in particular an emphasis on government reform and an aversion to
overly bitter partisan wrangling. Accordingly, Mr. McCain’s advisers said
they would present him as a senator who frequently stepped across the aisle,
while portraying Mr. Obama as a down-the-line Democratic voter who is
ideologically out of touch with much of the country.

“We believe America is still a slightly right-of-center country, and that is
what McCain is,” said Charlie Black, a senior adviser to Mr. McCain. “If
you look at Obama’s base and his record, he is a pretty conventional liberal.
”

Mr. Obama’s advisers, meanwhile, intend to present Mr. McCain as a product
of Washington who moved closer to the Bush administration to win the
Republican nomination.

The two men also have sought to build their candidacies around images of
reform, unconstrained by traditional political molds. The rivals are openly
discussing staging forums across the country to speak directly to voters, an
idea that is by any measure unconventional for a general election campaign.

Asked about the idea on Saturday, Mr. Obama told reporters in Oregon, “If I
have the opportunity to debate substantive issues before the voters with John
McCain, that’s something that I’m going to welcome.”

Hispanic voters could find themselves drawing more attention from
presidential candidates than ever before. Their votes could prove critical in
determining whether Democrats capture states like Colorado, Nevada and New
Mexico and whether Republicans have any chance of being competitive in
California.

Mr. McCain’s identification with legislation that would have permitted some
illegal immigrants to attain citizenship, a position he moved away from in
the primaries but never renounced, gives him an opportunity to compete for
those voters, who except for Cubans in Florida appear to have largely settled
into the Democratic camp in recent years.

Mr. Obama also supported measures that would have allowed immigrants to
attain citizenship but struggled to win over Hispanic voters in his primary
fight, signaling a potential problem for him in the fall campaign. Mr. Obama’
s aides said the endorsement by Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico, one of
the nation’s most prominent Hispanic leaders, could prove more critical in
the general election than in the primary.

Both sides say the states clearly in play now include Colorado, Florida,
Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Oregon,
Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington and Wisconsin.

Republicans said they hoped to put New Jersey and possibly California into
play; Democrats said African-Americans could make Mr. Obama competitive in
Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina. Mr. Obama’s advisers said they
had a strong chance of taking Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio and
Virginia away from the Republican column.

Mr. Obama has a clear financial advantage. By March 31, Mr. McCain had raised
about $80 million and reported about $11 million in cash on hand. Mr. Obama
had raised three times as much — about $240 million — and had more than
four times as much in the bank.

But the Republican National Committee, which is permitted to spend money on
Mr. McCain’s behalf, has raised $31 million, compared with just $6 million
by the Democratic National Committee. And Republican officials said they were
not concerned about being outspent between now and the conventions.

Mr. Obama’s advisers said that as a result of the five-month series of
primaries and caucuses, he had a nearly national campaign apparatus in place
and had identified and registered thousands of new voters. That said, they
acknowledged that they were at a disadvantage in two important states —
 Florida and Michigan — because those states had early primaries in defiance
of the Democratic National Committee, and the candidates agreed not to
campaign there.

“Organizationally, we have now built very powerful organizations in every
state but Michigan and Florida,” Mr. Plouffe said. “That is one huge silver
lining to how long this nomination fight has gone on.”

Republicans will seek to portray Mr. Obama as out of touch with many voters
on issues like abortion and gay rights. Some of Mr. McCain’s advisers said
they also thought that Mr. Obama had displayed a number of vulnerabilities as
a candidate that they would seek to exploit: they argued that he was prone to
becoming irritated when tired or pressed on tough questions, that he had
trouble connecting with voters in smaller settings and that he had run a
campaign light on substance.

In the eyes of the Obama campaign, Mr. McCain’s chief weaknesses include
continuing to embrace the Iraq war, his support for extending the
administration’s tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans (he once opposed the
idea) and his suggestion that the economy had made “great progress” in the
last eight years.

Mr. Obama has said he has no intention of making age — Mr. McCain is 25
years older — an overt issue in the general election campaign. Yet in recent
weeks, the Obama campaign has made a point of showing their candidate in
settings, on the basketball court, as well as surrounded by his young family,
that could be seen as telegraphing the message without explicitly raising the
issue.


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                                                   ---培力作文補習班
                                                 http://www.empower.idv.tw/

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◆ From: 122.127.64.57
※ 編輯: swallow73       來自: 122.127.64.57        (05/13 19:11)
推 NPLNT:請問McCain反對生質燃料是不是會讓他在Iowa不利呢
→ NPLNT:McCain跟Obama誰在Iowa的贏面會較大
→ swallow73:選戰優勢方面請看這裡http://tinyurl.com/4cqg68
→ swallow73:Obama從來沒在Iowa落後過McCain。不過為什麼N大會認為
→ swallow73:Iowa選民會特別關心生質燃料問題?是有什麼相關新聞我漏
→ swallow73:掉沒讀過?
推 ncyc:愛荷華州產玉米，玉米練出來的乙醇是生質燃料的主要原料
→ ncyc:請看The West Wing 6x13 "King Corn"
推 zzaa:滿認同S大的觀點,Obama也有贏得關鍵州的實力
→ ncyc:Alan Alda扮演的Vinivk在裡面就把生質燃料罵翻過去
推 NPLNT:Iowa所生產的乙醇好像是全美最多的
→ swallow73:謝謝,這個面向似乎是選戰相關新聞比較少會提到的,不曉得
→ swallow73:哪位板友有較詳細一點的相關資料可以分享?
推 zzaa:個人覺得Obama仍然可以在賓州和Ohio州勝出,只是幅度較小而已
推 zzaa:至於IA,NM,CO,NV,及VA都可能由紅轉藍,被Obama拿下
→ swallow73:根據民調，Pennsylvania近期Obama的確是穩定領先；
→ swallow73:Ohio就辛苦了,2/26日以來，除了一次領先1%後，其餘都落
→ swallow73:後.至於Florida,看起來是從來都沒贏過XD
→ swallow73:這三州Clinton女士的確是比較有競爭力沒錯