目前在加州民調很明顯的是Clinton占上風,不過一項因素仍然
可能影響最後的結果.加州民主黨的初選是開放式的,共和黨
則是封閉式的,也就是原本可能會去投共和黨初選的中間選
民都可能跑來投民主黨的初選,這對頗能吸引中間選民的Obama
相當有利.如這篇報導所表示的,有幾位過去投Bush的現在都
改幫Obama活動了.如果這個驅勢是大規模的話,Obama在加州
仍然很有一搏的機會.
California dreaming: Clinton's grip shaken by Obama's young guns
Dan Glaister in Los Angeles
Wednesday January 30, 2008
The Guardian
http://0rz.tw/de3D4
Clad in a black Monterey pop festival jacket with the word "Peace" emblazoned
on the back, Robin Tarne doesn't look like a typical Bush Republican. "I was
for Bush and I believed in the war but as time went on I became saddened,"
she says. Around her, in a chain hotel bar in Calabasas, San Fernando Valley,
her words provoke a hush.
"I believed in the good guy," she continues, "the cowboy who can go in and
sort things out."
But that was then. Now, Tarne has joined five other volunteers at a phone
bank. A staple of American grassroots political campaigning, a phone bank
involves like-minded individuals getting together to cold call registered
voters in the hope of getting them to the polls and, perhaps, voting for
their candidate.
But this phone bank is not for Mitt Romney or John McCain. Tarne is here to
push the word for a Democrat, Barack Obama. "I like Obama," she says. "I
don't agree with everything he says, but I understand it."
Sitting at another table is George Kappas, who first noticed Obama when the
Illinois senator made a speech at the 2004 Democratic convention. "I've sort
of kept an eye since," he says. Like Tarne, Kappas has crossed the political
divide.
"I'm a lifelong Republican. I've never donated before, I've never volunteered
before. I guess I'm feeling like it's kind of important. I like this guy."
At the Obama campaign's West Los Angeles headquarters, in the bohemian
coastal city of Venice, volunteers tramp up the stairs, mobile phones in
their hands, laptops under their arms.
BJ Donovan, one of six full-time volunteer staff based at the office, also
voted Republican in 2000 and 2004.
"Ever since, I've been independent," he says. "I think there's a huge trend
moving away from identifying yourself with a party because people have seen
how partisan politics doesn't work. The independents are going to carry us if
we're going to win this state."
That much, at least, the pollsters and analysts would agree on. While Obama's
rival, Hillary Clinton, has a seeming lock on most of the demographic
categories in the delegate-rich California, the independents may be the ones
to wriggle the state away from her grasp.
Democrats are allowing California's three million independent voters to take
part in the state's primary, one of at least 22 elections across the US on
next week's Super Tuesday. In contrast, California Republicans decided to
restrict their primary to voters registered as supporters, thus depriving the
party of the possibility of attracting swing voters to its tent, and leaving
the Democrats as the sole suitor of such voters.
And this year, unlike 2004, the Democrats have a candidate in Obama who
attracts independent voters - and even Republicans.
According to conventional wisdom, independents are expected to make up
between 8% and 12% of Democratic primary voters in California. But 2008's
Democratic primaries have not followed convention so far. Turnout among
first-timers, independents and young voters has been unprecedented - from
South Carolina to Nevada. And the chief beneficiary of this surge in interest
has been Obama.
The latest poll of registered Democrats, published by CNN and the Los Angeles
Times yesterday, gives Clinton a healthy lead of 49% to Obama's 32%. The
figures reflect strong backing for Clinton among Latinos, women and those
earning less than ￡40,000 a year.
To win, Obama will need to dent some of that support, win over the bulk of
the undecided Democrats, recently estimated at a sizeable 20% of Democratic
party voters, and persuade those all-important independents to join him.
This week's endorsement of Obama by Edward Kennedy, a party grandee with a
strong pro-immigrant record, may help him among Latinos. Kennedy will join
the candidate on the campaign trail in California later this week.
The decision to move the Californian primary up in the calendar was designed
to give the most populous state more of a say in the nomination of the
candidates for November. However, the uncertainty surrounding the Democratic
race may well mean that despite the state's trove of 441 delegates,
representing almost a quarter of those at stake in more than 20 elections on
Super Tuesday, California may not be decisive. Both the Clinton and Obama
camps are suggesting that they expect the fight to extend well beyond
February 5.
This - along with the sheer size of the state and the logistical problems
that causes - may explain the low-key nature of the campaign in California so
far. The TV ads are running, the mailers have been sent out, and the phone
calls are coming in - but candidate appearances have been rare.
That will change over the next few days, as the candidates - Republican and
Democratic - arrive in California for two televised debates, and the
campaigns move from phone banking to door-to-door canvassing.
Back in Calabasas, the Obama volunteer George Kappas muses aloud about the
campaign. "Why did you come here?" he asks. "To see six people who changed
the world?"
It's meant as a joke, but there is a sense that he, and the five others with
him, believe the fairytale might just come true.
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