[評論] Lost in Wisconsin

[swallow73 (swallow73)]

Clinton女士真的被她的天兵幕僚給害慘了，在Texas、Ohio布署
重兵背水一戰的決心固然令人動容，不過這些天兵幕僚居然這幾
天才發現Texas初選的規則特別怪異，而且還運氣頗背的怪異的
對己方頗為不利(請見11798)。

Clinton女士真該把一個個把天兵幕僚們抓來打屁股。

Lost in Wisconsin

US elections 2008: Hillary Clinton's campaign has made a series of strategic
and tactical blunders that will ultimately cost her the presidential
nomination

Richard Adams

The Guardian


http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/richard_adams/2008/02/
lost_in_wisconsin.html

If Hillary Clinton loses the Democratic presidential nomination - and after
another hammering at the hands of Barack Obama in Wisconsin, it's
increasingly looking as if she will - then it didn't just happen last night.
Nor did she lose it last week, when she was devastated in the "Potomac
primary" - three big losses in one day. Nor was it the series of defeats she
suffered in states such as Washington, Louisiana and Nebraska, although none
of those things helped. No, the day when the first nails went into the
Clinton campaign's coffin was exactly two weeks ago, on February 6.

We didn't know it at the time, but February 6 was the day when there began a
big blank gap on the Clinton campaign calendar. Because her team of
battle-tested veterans failed to plan for much of anything after Super
Tuesday. We now know that the Clinton campaign blew so much of its cash on
the February 5 multi-state primary that it didn't have much left in the tank
for what was to follow, forcing the candidate to loan herself $5m and spend
valuable time last night on television trying to raise more.

So strongly did the Clinton campaign assume that Super Tuesday, with its
1,000-plus pledged delegates up for election in more than 20 states, would be
the effective end of the nomination campaign, that it failed to have any Plan
B. Organising for the string of caucuses that followed Super Tuesday? Opening
field offices in the smaller states? Drumming up the extra fundraising needed
to pay for it all? None of it, or not enough of it, got done. And as a
result, when Super Tuesday failed to deliver the knock-out blow that Hillary
Clinton expected, her campaign was exposed to a series of rapid jabs in
places like Maine, Virginia and now Wisconsin - states the Clinton campaign
should have competed in strongly, not lost by double digits.

But again and again, following Super Tuesday, the Clinton campaign failed in
basic on-the-ground organisation. In each of the states after February 5 it
was the Obama campaign that arrived first, opened more field offices and
began advertising on local television weeks ahead of its rival.

Why have the Clintons, experienced politicians if nothing else, campaigned so
poorly in this election? Partly, it may just be that they were out-organised
- and the story then is how a solitary junior senator from Illinois managed
to put together such a well drilled and accomplished political organisation
from scratch. But another reason is that the Clintons have not fought a
primary anything like this one. Hillary barely faced a contest in the primary
for her New York senate seat in 2000. For Bill, 1992 was a long time ago -
and Paul Tsongas was no Barack Obama.

The Clinton campaign has had something of a shake-up, but the same bad
decisions are still being made, by many of the same people who remain in post.

First, after the Potomac primary, it declared that Ohio and Texas would be
where the big showdown was to take place on March 4. But even if the Clinton
campaign team even believed that - and to be fair, it made some sense as a
straw to clutch - then they were stupid to say so (thus undermining their
campaign in Wisconsin) and stupid to bracket Texas with Ohio, because the two
states are very different - especially as Texas has a complex method of
allocating delegates that makes it all but impossible for a candidate to win
a significantly larger slate and actually has an built-in advantage for
Obama. The Clinton team only realised this sometime in the last few days -
which is stunning, considering the size and potential importance of Texas.
And these people are meant to be smart?

Second, the Clinton campaign is still trailing behind Obama in organisation
for the upcoming primaries. Concentrating on Ohio as its last chance, the
Clinton campaign has taken aim at its own foot again - by failing to organise
in the other two states, Vermont and Rhode Island, which also vote on March
4. In Vermont, for example, while the Clinton campaign hasn't yet opened a
state office, the Obama campaign already has seven paid staff and four
offices there, and has been advertising for a week on local TV. Now, Vermont
is tiny compared to Ohio or Texas - but it is another state, and another big
win gives Obama more net delegates.

As on Super Tuesday, Obama won the delegate race by winning big in small
states and losing small in the big ones. But the Clinton campaign still
hasn't figured that out yet.

There are signs that Texas may be a tough battle for both sides, with Obama
organising among younger Latino voters and helped by a sizeable black
population, while Ohio is not so different to Wisconsin: blue collar,
strongly white and heavily unionised. Well, Obama won in Wisconsin by two to
one among those men that are so prized in Ohio, among white voters by a
similar margin, and was close to splitting the female and union vote. By 63%
to 37% the voters of Wisconsin thought that Obama was the most electable
candidate in November.

But now though, Clinton needs to win not just Texas and Ohio but win them by
large margins, of around 20%, to stay competitive. So far those sort of big
leads have eluded her, even in her home state of New York, where she only
managed a 17% margin. The national polls show Obama now beating Clinton
regularly, and eating away her support among women and Latinos. She has now
lost 10 primaries or caucuses in a row - by big margins, as Obama won
virtually unopposed, thanks to her campaign's mismanagement. Now Clinton
desperately needs a new message and a new sense of competition.

The spin coming from the Clinton campaign last night was that she was
out-spent by Obama in Wisconsin. Well, duh. They are kidding themselves if
they think it was about money - although the fact that Obama has more money
is in his favour.

The tone of the campaign has gotten nasty in the last week, as time runs out
and the finishing line gets closer. A majority of voters in Wisconsin said
they thought Clinton's attacks on Obama in recent days - the accusations of
plagiarism, and of offering just "words" - were unfair. The Clinton campaign
might be tempted to return to the attack over the next two weeks, but the
reply from Wisconsin is "that dog won't hunt" - as they say in Texas.

--
 Clinton is an essay, solid and reasoned; Obama
is a poem, lyric and filled with possibility. Clinton would be a valuable and
competent executive, but Obama matches her in substance and adds something
that the nation has been missing far too long -- a sense of aspiration.

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 122.127.67.95
※ 編輯: swallow73       來自: 122.127.67.95        (02/20 13:21)
推 ncyc:大概是之前根本沒料到居然會變成要靠Texas逆轉，畢竟以往打到
→ ncyc:Texas的時候，都是初選結果都差不多底定之時
推 Taipei101:swallow73大大真是美國專家  ^^
→ Taipei101:德州若無大贏 HC只有退選的下場了
→ ncyc:個人覺得要讓柯林頓退不是那麼容易的
推 hawardhsz:新上任的黑人總幹事該不會是抓耙子吧?
→ swallow73:我從拿奶瓶的時候就對開票有興趣了,所以雖然不了解美國
→ swallow73:文化,不過倒是從選舉新聞學了些皮毛知識
→ hawardhsz:CNN之前有預測過如果之後BO都照現在的比例贏的話 也不會
→ hawardhsz:達到2025的門檻 最後還是要看super delegates的決定了
推 isaacchen:BO如果之後都照現在的比例贏的話，希要不退也很難了
→ hawardhsz:MH都可以撐下去了 更何況沒輸很多的HC
→ nplnt:我覺得MH的目標應該不是勝選了吧
推 argon007:18萬了
推 hboo:第一次看到這麼多人
推 nplnt:Super Tuesday時不是68人嗎
→ nplnt:這次還不是最多的
推 hawardhsz:我的重點是HC沒理由退選 所以才舉MH的例子 連他不可能贏
→ hawardhsz:都沒輕言退選了 黨內應該還是有很多人支持HC吧?
推 nplnt:這是一定的阿
→ hawardhsz:Super Delegates不只是有黑人而已
→ nplnt:感覺在結果出來之前會發生什麼事都還很難說
→ hawardhsz:BO真的還太嫩 小布希都能把國家搞成這樣了 更何況BO只有
推 yeh67:美國黑人高級知識份子 思想其實和上流社會的白人沒差別
→ hawardhsz:滿腔熱血抱負理想 真的很怕他處理伊拉克沒處理好 挫賽說
→ yeh67:歐巴馬當過大學講師 教憲法
→ swallow73:林博文是提出一個類比,林肯幹總統前只當過一屆眾議員
→ hawardhsz:BO他只會抓住HC當初投贊成票出兵伊拉克的小辮子
→ swallow73:林肯前任當過國務卿,參議員,資歷之完整歷屆總統罕有能
→ yeh67:看維基的資料 他念過哥倫比亞大學 政治系主修國際關係
→ swallow73:與之相提並論的.不過該位經驗豐富的總統歷史評價卻遠
→ swallow73:不如林肯
→ swallow73:不過記得y大對林肯評價不太好
推 hawardhsz:閉門造車跟實務經驗是有差的 BO可能會想的太天真了
推 ncyc:南北戰爭期間，林肯經常以政治因素干預前線的軍事指揮
推 yeh67:我沒批過林肯 林肯是共和黨 南方黑人州傳統上都支持共和黨
→ ncyc:沒這回事吧，南方導向共和黨應該是貝瑞高華德競選失敗之後的
→ swallow73:萊斯和他父親本來都是民主黨,不過一次萊斯父親想去投
→ nplnt:現在南方的黑人是反共和黨的
→ yeh67:美國國務卿賴斯 研究俄羅斯的博士
→ swallow73:票,負責登記的民主黨人士不讓他註冊,於是父女倆一氣之下
→ ncyc:事情了。附帶一提，高華德參議員退休後留下的席位就是由麥坎
→ swallow73:就跑去共和黨了
→ ncyc:接替的。
→ yeh67:她是當上國務卿才有接觸俄羅斯高層的機會 之前也在大學教書
→ fjjkk:哈克比人他是有什麼大金主嗎?明明就不會上還支持他
→ ncyc:哈克比的競選資金應該是來自福音派基督徒
→ swallow73:投哈克比的票有相當部份是對馬肯的賭爛票