推 ncyc:假設麥坎贏的提名，個人以為搭檔來自保守派應該是不可避免 01/28 15:17
推 yeh67:美國人民厭戰 McCain是將門之後 越戰老兵 01/28 19:41
佛州幾個最近的民調都顯示Romney跟McCain支持度不分上下.
usaelectionpolls.com的David Terr教授甚至直斷由於在
S.C幫忙McCain分散Huckabee保守派選票的Thompson退選,
Romney將因此得利贏得佛州初選.不過佛州有提前投票制度,
目前大約有40萬選民已經提前投票,不少票可能在Fred Thompson
退選前已經投下,這部份Romney可能占不了太大的便宜.再加上
頗有群眾魅力的佛州現任州長公開支持McCain,很有可能發
揮臨門一腳的作用讓McCain拿下佛州.
雖然共和黨中有人質疑目前McCain都只能在舉行開放式初選,
允許中間選民進來投票的州勝選,到了封閉式初選的大州如加州
跟紐約州很難討好,不過民調顯示McCain在加州跟紐約州的領
先幅度都很明顯.1/29拿下佛州後,McCain在Super Tuesday大
勝的可能性將大幅增加,或許只有南方幾個保守的州如田納
西跟喬治亞會輸給Huckabee.
個人很看好McCain贏得共和黨總統初選,不過倒是要擔心保
守派人士在大選另推人選搶右翼選票.
The New York Times
McCain, Long a G.O.P. Maverick, Is Gaining Mainstream Support
By JOHN M. BRODER
Published: January 28, 2008
http://0rz.tw/af3Br
LADY LAKE, Fla. — Is John McCain, the maverick flyboy of the Republican
Party, becoming the candidate of the Republican establishment?
Mr. McCain, who has delighted in
sticking his thumb in the eye of mainstream Republicans throughout his
political career, is now accumulating a base of support among party regulars
who see him as the strongest general election candidate in the remaining
Republican field.
The latest evidence came Saturday night with the endorsement of Florida’s
popular Republican governor, Charlie Crist, which surprised even Mr. McCain.
That state holds primary elections on Tuesday.
In an interview Sunday, Mr. Crist said his endorsement was based on “trust
and confidence and friendship,” as well as what he said were Mr. McCain’s
unmatched national security credentials.
But he also said he believed that Mr. McCain had the broadest appeal of the
four major Republican candidates still standing and the best chance of
beating the Democratic nominee in November. “I’ve been traveling the state,
and in the last few days people have been taking this very seriously,” he
said. “I think Tuesday will be very telling, and it will be a great day for
Senator McCain.”
The Crist endorsement came 24 hours after that of Senator Mel Martinez of
Florida, a former general chairman of the Republican National Committee and a
popular figure in Florida’s Cuban-American community.
Mr. McCain has also won the support of a number of established party figures,
including moderates like former Senators John C. Danforth of Missouri and
Howard H. Baker Jr. of Tennessee and conservatives like Senator Tom Coburn of
Oklahoma and former Representative Jack F. Kemp of New York.
A year ago, Mr. McCain entered the nominating contest as the presumed
front-runner, surrounded by a team of policy advisers and fund-raisers from
the Bush administration and the two winning Bush campaigns. But the McCain
effort imploded last summer in acrimony and financial ruin, and Rudolph W.
Giuliani, a former New York mayor, and Mitt Romney, a former governor of
Massachusetts, surged to the front of the pack.
But Mr. McCain battled back, and many party leaders and Congressional
colleagues rallied to his side after it became clear that he was again viable
with his victories in New Hampshire and South Carolina.
“Maybe some of it is because of friendship,” Mr. McCain said in an
interview Sunday, “although that is the most overrated aspect of American
politics. But some of it is because of electability.”
He cited several polls that seemed to show him the strongest of the
Republican candidates against the leading Democratic candidates, Senator
Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and Senator Barack Obama of Illinois.
Mr. McCain also has a long list of newspaper endorsements, far more than any
of his rivals.
All this, of course, in part reflects the bandwagon effect in politics, the
cold calculation by politicians that it is wise to get behind the
front-runner, and the earlier the better. There is an element, too, of
disdain for Mr. Romney, who has altered a number of positions he held as
governor and who is running against Washington, which he has proclaimed “
broken.”
Mr. Martinez, introducing Mr. McCain at a town-hall-style meeting at a
retiree development here, about 45 miles northwest of Orlando, made the
electability argument explicit. “It’s important that we win in November,
and I think John McCain gives us the best chance to win in November,” he
said, citing polls that show Mr. McCain would be the most competitive against
the Democratic nominee.
“We need John McCain to be the standard bearer,” Mr. Martinez said.
But the apparent coalescing of much of the Republican establishment around
Mr. McCain carries drawbacks as well. Many in the right wing of the party
consider him an apostate and a certain loser in a general election.
Rush Limbaugh, the conservative radio commentator, has warned that if Mr.
McCain wins the nomination, “it’s going to destroy the Republican Party”
because conservatives will desert in droves. Many object to his moderate
views on immigration. Pro-business conservatives have attacked his positions
on the environment, pointing to legislation Mr. McCain has co-sponsored to
address climate change. Conservatives have also attacked his high-profile
criticism of Republicans in Congress over pork barrel spending and of
President Bush on the early conduct of the Iraq war.
A spokesman for Mr. Romney, who is competing fiercely with Mr. McCain for
votes in Florida’s primary on Tuesday, said the endorsement of Mr. Martinez
was predictable because he and Mr. McCain had co-sponsored immigration
legislation that many Republicans rejected as too lenient on illegal
immigrants.
Mr. Romney’s endorsement list tilts toward the conservative wing of the
party. It includes Senators Thad Cochran of Mississippi and Judd Gregg of New
Hampshire, Govs. Dave Heineman of Nebraska and Matt Blunt of Missouri and the
conservative advocates David Keene and Paul Weyrich.
One neutral state party Republican chairman, who insisted on anonymity to
discuss the contest candidly, said that the endorsements might help validate
Mr. McCain with some Republican voters, but they would turn off others.
“It’s a tricky double-edged sword,” the official said. “They point out
all the problems conservatives have with him.”
The official added: “The real problem is, where is the base? He hasn’t won
anywhere with just Republican votes. California is much more conservative on
the Republican side, and so is New York, and those are closed primaries and
he can’t count on independent or Democratic votes.”
Steve Duprey, a former Republican chairman in New Hampshire who is now a
McCain supporter, said that many establishment figures were falling in line
behind Mr. McCain now after watching the campaign unfold. He said that his
peers — state and county party leaders, precinct captains, local elected
officials — were now starting to ask which candidate had the best chance of
winning.
“As the race has sorted itself out,” he said, “more and more people are
coming to believe that John McCain has made a compelling case that he’s
ready to lead on Day 1.”
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※ 編輯: swallow73 來自: 122.127.70.206 (01/28 13:53)