作者swallow73 (swallow73)
看板IA
標題[資訊] 美國總統大選選舉人票預測
時間Thu Feb 21 15:40:34 2008
值得訝異的是,Obama跟McCain的對決,Obama竟然會在Msachusetts
(12)輸掉。2004年Kerry在該處拿了62%的選票,橫掃全部的county,
該州看起來不像是民主黨會輸的地方。這份民調或許說明了McCain對
中間選民的吸引力。
另外雖然McCain板友對Virginia相當有信心,不過民調顯示Obama
能拿下Virginia(13),補償了丟掉Msachusetts的差距。近年總統大選
Virgina並不能算是共和黨的鐵票區。2000年跟2004年兩黨在Virginia的
差距便頗為有限,Kerry輸得比Gore多了一些,不過也只差
Bush八個百分點左右。
另外Obama還能從共和黨手中搶下Missouri(11),除了一次例外,歷年
來Missouri的贏家都能當上總統;兩黨在兩次大選差距都不到1%的Iowa(7)
;以及Colorado(9)。總計Obama跟McCain的對決,Obama會以274票打敗253。
相對的Clinton跟McCain的對決會以176對327的懸殊差距落敗。雖然
相較於Obama,Clinton能以小幅差距守住Msachusetts,也能搶回Missouri
,不過會讓出Minnesota(10)。另外在Washington(11)、Michigan(17)與McCain打
平,再加上California(55)很危險的只以2個百分點的幅度領先。或許顯示
了Clinton很難去跟McCain去競爭中間選民的支持。
最後,最引人注目的Florida(27)跟Ohio(20);Florida方面Obama以16%的
懸殊差距落後,Clinton表現好得多,只差6%。Ohio方面雖然不論跟HC,
BO對決,JM都是領先的,不過幅度也都只有1%。顯示Ohio今年還是雙方
爭奪的關鍵要地。
Barack Obama vs. John McCain Head to Head Matchup Polls
Last Updated: 2/20/08
http://www.presidentelectionpolls.com/2008/presidential-matchups/
barack-obama-vs-john-mccain.html
Number of electoral votes based on the latest polls for each state:
Barack Obama - 274
John McCain - 253
National Poll Averages by Month
Month BO JM
February 48.2 44.2
January 43.7 44.6
Latest Poll Results By State
State #EV End Date Barack Obama John McCain
California 55 2/1/08 47.0 40.0
New York 31 2/14/08 47.0 40.0
Massachusetts 12 1/21/08 45.0 50.0
Illinois 21 1/24/08 58.0 37.0
Alabama 9 1/17/08 29.0 63.0
Ohio 20 2/12/08 38.0 39.0
Minnesota 10 2/16/08 53.0 38.0
Pennsylvania 21 2/14/08 49.0 39.0
Wisconsin 10 2/10/08 45.0 44.0
Nevada 5 2/12/08 50.0 38.0
Washington 11 2/4/08 55.0 38.0
Oklahoma 7 1/30/08 30.0 58.0
Colorado 9 2/14/08 46.0 39.0
Missouri 11 1/24/08 47.0 42.0
Rhode Island 4 2/10/08 42.0 30.0
New Mexico 5 1/21/08 41.0 50.0
Oregon 7 2/13/08 49.0 40.0
Virginia 13 2/17/08 51.0 45.0
Indiana 11 2/4/08 40.0 50.0
Kansas 6 1/17/08 39.0 53.0
Kentucky 8 2/4/08 32.0 61.0
Iowa 7 2/17/08 51.0 41.0
New Hampshire 4 2/11/08 49.0 36.0
Michigan 17 2/17/08 47.0 39.0
Florida 27 2/16/08 37.0 53.0
Hillary Clinton vs. John McCain Head to Head Matchup Polls
Last Updated: 2/20/08
http://www.presidentelectionpolls.com/2008/
presidential-matchups/hillary-clinton-vs-john-mccain.html
Number of electoral votes based on the latest polls for each state:
Hillary Clinton - 176
John McCain - 327
National Poll Averages by Month
Month HC JM
February 44.4 48.2
January 44.0 46.3
Latest Poll Results By State
State #EV End Date Hillary Clinton John McCain
California 55 2/1/08 45.0 43.0
New York 31 2/14/08 49.0 42.0
Massachusetts 12 1/21/08 49.0 45.0
Illinois 21 1/24/08 54.0 40.0
Alabama 9 1/17/08 37.0 58.0
Ohio 20 2/12/08 43.0 44.0
Minnesota 10 2/16/08 42.0 47.0
Pennsylvania 21 2/14/08 42.0 44.0
Wisconsin 10 2/17/08 42.0 49.0
Nevada 5 2/12/08 40.0 49.0
Washington 11 2/4/08 46.0 46.0
Oklahoma 7 1/30/08 36.0 57.0
Colorado 9 2/14/08 35.0 49.0
Missouri 11 1/24/08 45.0 44.0
Rhode Island 4 2/10/08 43.0 32.0
New Mexico 5 1/21/08 42.0 51.0
Oregon 7 2/13/08 42.0 45.0
Virginia 13 2/17/08 45.0 48.0
Indiana 11 2/4/08 42.0 51.0
Kansas 6 1/17/08 40.0 53.0
Kentucky 8 2/4/08 43.0 53.0
Iowa 7 2/17/08 41.0 52.0
New Hampshire 4 2/11/08 43.0 41.0
Michigan 17 2/17/08 44.0 44.0
Florida 27 2/16/08 43.0 49.0
本文願意開放自由轉載
--
Clinton is an essay, solid and reasoned; Obama is a poem, lyric and filled
with possibility. Clinton would be a valuable and competent executive, but
Obama matches her in substance and adds something that the nation has been
missing far too long -- a sense of aspiration. -Los Angels Times
--
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◆ From: 122.127.67.95
※ 編輯: swallow73 來自: 122.127.67.95 (02/21 16:02)
推 fjjkk:Clinton在紐約也才贏7% 因為Guiliani支持McCian嗎? 02/21 16:39
推 nplnt:沒想到兩人分別跟McCain對決的差別會這麼大 02/21 17:15
推 isaacchen:包袱沉重的Hilary對上溫和派的Mccain真的會很難打 02/21 17:17
推 McCain:最近七屆的總統選舉 只要能贏俄亥俄 阿肯色州的人都會當選 02/22 01:22
→ swallow73:阿肯色州是紅區,會造成這樣應該是其間唯一一任民主黨總 02/22 01:30
→ swallow73:統剛好是前阿肯色州州長 02/22 01:30
→ Gustave:麻州怎麼回事? 支持希拉蕊而不支持歐巴馬? 02/22 02:17
推 zzaa:這是初選中的民調,要等兩黨都確定後才比較準 02/22 07:35
推 zzaa:我看過其他媒體綜合的結果是Obama:McCian=309:229 02/22 07:38