推 longreach:從喬治亞沒有清出俄國PKO力量 怎麼動他都失敗 08/09 22:48
→ pursuistmi:但這次是...徹底失敗XD 08/09 22:50
→ A6:4小時被KO 08/09 23:09
From The TimesAugust 9, 2008
How Georgia fell into its enemies' trap
The fighting in the Caucasus should be a deafening wake-up call to the
West
Edward Lucas
When is a victory not a victory? When it dents your country's image, scares
your allies and gets you into an unwinnable war with a hugely stronger
opponent.
啥時勝利不是勝利？當這勝利毀了你國家的形象，把你的盟友嚇跑，把你拖入一場
無法打勝的戰爭，面對無法抗衡的對手。
That is the bleak outlook for Georgia this weekend, after what initially
looked like a quick military win against the separatist regime in South
Ossetia. Georgia's attack followed weeks of escalating provocations,
including hours of heavy shelling by the Russian-backed breakaway province
and signs of large-scale Russian reinforcement.
這就是喬治亞這週末的窘樣，就在該國似乎才迅速贏得了對南奧賽梯獨立份子的勝利。
喬治亞的攻擊是在幾週不斷升級的挑釁之後，包括數小時的俄國支持的南奧賽梯砲火
攻擊，以及大規模俄軍集結的跡象。
Thanks to American military aid, Georgia's 18,000-strong armed forces are the
best-trained and equipped fighting force in the Caucasus. But it is one thing
for them to defeat the raggle-taggle militia of a tinpot place like South
Ossetia (population 70,000). It is another for a country of less than five
million people to take on Russia (population 142 million). Now the Kremlin is
reacting strongly. Russian warplanes are reportedly striking targets in
Georgia. Reinforcements are pouring in. And the Kremlin's mighty propaganda
machine is lumbering into action while a cyber-attack appears to have
crippled Georgia's websites.
美軍的軍事支援讓喬治亞的一萬八千名武裝部隊在高加索區域獨步，有最好的訓練和
最精良的配備。但擊敗風餐露宿的非正規軍如南奧賽梯的部隊是一回事，要以五百萬人口
的國家力量挑戰俄國約一億四千兩百萬人口的國家是另外一件事。現在克里姆林宮
反應強硬。俄國戰機正在轟炸喬治亞境內目標。援軍源源不絕地湧進。克里姆林宮
強大的宣傳機器正在轟然啟動網路攻擊，且似乎已經重創喬治亞的各個網站。
For it is the information war, not what happens on the ground, that will
determine the victor of this conflict. Russia is portraying Georgia as the
aggressor, an intransigent and unpredictable country determined to restore
its supremacy over an unwilling province by means of military force and “
ethnic cleansing”. Such a country, clearly, would be unfit to receive
Western support.
是這場資訊戰爭，而不是地面的傳統戰爭，決定這次衝突的勝者。俄國把喬治亞
渲染成滋事者，一個頑固而無法預測的國家，鐵了心要把自己的勢力範圍擴張到
一個強力抵抗的省分，並不惜以武力和「種族屠殺」作為手段。這麼一個國家，
很明顯地，不配得到西方國家的支持。
That seems to be working. European leaders have long been dubious about
Mikhail Saakashvili, a charismatic US-educated lawyer who stormed to power in
the Rose Revolution of 2005. Where the fans of the Georgian President see
charm and brains, his critics - such as the German Chancellor Angela Merkel -
see a dangerously headstrong and erratic leader. A crackdown on the
Opposition in November, bullying of the media and instances of abuse of power
among senior officials have allowed detractors to draw uncomfortable
parallels between Georgia and Vladimir Putin's Russia.
這似乎奏效了。歐洲領袖們一向對Mikhail Saakashvili心存猶疑。這位總統是美國教育
出來的律師，在2005年的薔薇革命中挾龐大民意取得大位。這位總統的粉絲看到的是
魅力和腦子，而他的批評者，如德國總理Merkel，看到的則是冥頑不靈並且無法預測的
領袖。十一月這位總統出手打擊反對派，要脅媒體，以及幾個高級官員耍特權的例子，
讓批評者能把這個政府與普丁的俄國政府聯想在一起。
These are misplaced: Georgia is not perfect, but it is not a dictatorship.
Its leadership does not peddle a phoney ideology, such as the Kremlin's
mishmash of Soviet nostalgia and tsarist-era chauvinism. It has a thriving
civil society, vocal opposition and ardently wants to be in the EU and Nato.
Moral grounds alone would be enough reason for supporting it against Russian
aggression.
這是不當的連結：喬治亞並不完美，但它絕對不是獨裁政府。他的領導人不會鼓動虛假
的意識型態，如克里姆林宮玩弄蘇聯懷舊和沙皇時代的沙文主義的手法。喬治亞有個
蓬勃的公民社會，有響亮的反對派聲音，積極想要加入歐盟和北約。光是道德上就有
足夠原因支持喬治亞對抗俄國的蠻橫。
But on top of that is a vital Western interest. The biggest threat Russia
poses to Europe is the Kremlin's monopoly on energy export routes to the West
from the former Soviet Union. The one breach in that is the oil and gas
pipeline that leads from energy-rich Azerbaijan to Turkey, across Georgia. If
Georgia falls, Europe's hopes of energy independence from Russia fall too.
但除此之外，介入是符合西方政府的利益的。俄國對歐洲最大的威脅，是克里姆林宮
對於從前蘇聯領域通往西方的能源出口路線的獨裁。通過喬治亞，把雅塞拜然的油氣
資源運往土耳其的油管是能源通往西方的唯一缺口。如果喬治亞倒了，歐洲希望能
在能源上擺脫對俄國的依賴就也會幻滅。
Yet the West is both divided and distracted. America will be furious if
reports turn out to be true that Russian warplanes bombed an airfield where
Pentagon military advisers are based. But a lame-duck president is not going
to risk World War Three for Georgia. In Europe, Georgia's allies are mostly
small ex-communist states such as Lithuania; heavily outnumbered by those
such as Germany that prize their relations with Russia, seemingly, above all
else. It seems Russia is ready to hit back hard, in the hope of squashing the
West's pestilential protégé.
但西方既分歧又迷糊。如果俄國戰真如報導中所說，曾對五角大廈軍事顧問駐紮的空軍
基地轟炸，美國會氣瘋。但一個跛腳總統是不可能為喬治亞打一場第三次世界大戰的。
在歐洲，喬治亞的同盟都是小型前共產國家，如立陶宛；在數量以及力量上都比不過如
德國這種珍視對俄友好關係的國家（且似乎比什麼都還重視）。似乎俄國準備狠很教訓
一下喬治亞，徹底弭平這個討厭的西方門徒。
In short, it looks more and more as though Georgia has fallen in to its
enemies' trap. The script went like this: first mount unbearable
provocations, then wait for a response, and finally reply with overwhelming
military force and diplomatic humiliation. The idea that Georgia sought this
war is nonsense. Recovering control of South Ossetia from its Russian-backed
rulers has been a top priority for the Georgian authorities for years. But
nobody thought it would come by military means. The Georgian strategy had
been to use soft power, underlining its prosperity and the corruption-
busting successes of Mr Saakashvili's rule. That contrasted sharply with the
isolation and cronyism of South Ossetia, which survives only on smuggling and
Russian subsidies.
檢而言之，看起來喬治亞掉入了他敵人的陷阱之中。劇本是這樣的：先是無法忍受的
一堆挑釁舉動，然後等待反應，然後終於以絕對優勢的武力和外交羞辱全面反擊。
若要認為喬治亞求戰是不可能的。從俄國支持的領導者手中重新取回南奧賽梯一向
是喬治亞當局的第一要務。但是沒有人會想到竟會是以武力作為手段。喬治亞戰略
一直是用軟實力，用他的繁榮發展和成功掃蕩貪腐的Saakashvili政府作為說詞主軸。
這與南奧賽梯政府的與世隔絕和近親政治造成極大反差。南奧賽梯政府強烈依靠
走私和俄國補貼為生。
Now that strategy is in ruins. As things stand, Georgia will be fighting not
to regain South Ossetia or even to deter aggression, but to survive. It is
hard to see any good outcome. Georgia has failed to win a quick victory:
crucially, it failed to block the Roki tunnel under the Caucasus mountains,
normally used as a smugglers' highway, but now the route for Russian heavy
weapons that Georgia cannot counter for long. Worse, the authorities in
Abkhazia, Georgia's other breakaway region, may mount an attack, either on
its own or with Russian help.
現在，這套戰略全毀了。現況是，喬治亞不再是為了奪回南奧賽梯而戰，或反制滋事
事件，而是為了生存而戰。很難看到情勢會有什麼好的結果。喬治亞無法取得迅速的
勝利：更關鍵地，喬治亞無法封住高加索山區的Roki隧道。這條路線通常是走私者的
富貴大道，但現在成了俄國重裝備運送紐帶，而喬治亞軍不可能長期抵抗的。更糟
的是，Abkhazia當局，喬治亞另一個鬧獨立的區域，可能會以己之力或接受俄國幫忙
發動攻擊。
The fighting should be a deafening wake-up call to the West. Our fatal
mistake was made at the Nato summit in Bucharest in April, when Georgia's
attempt to get a clear path to membership of the alliance was rebuffed. Mr
Saakashvili warned us then that Russia would take advantage of any display of
Western weakness or indecision. And it has.
這次戰事應該對西方是很響亮的警鐘。我們最嚴重的錯誤是在四月的Bucharest北約
高峰會犯下的，那時喬治亞希望能夠加入北約聯盟的希望被駁回。Saakashvili警告過
我們，俄國會佔任何西方軟弱和舉棋不定的便宜。且他已經得利了。
Edward Lucas is the author of The New Cold War (Bloomsbury)
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_contributors/
article4488503.ece
新聞來源: (需有正確連結)
--
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 220.129.160.164
※ 編輯: pursuistmi 來自: 220.129.160.164 (08/09 21:58)