標題:
By Janet McBride
LONDON (Reuters) - Russian President Dmitry Medvedev ordered a halt to
military operations in Georgia on Tuesday after five days of fighting, just
before French President Nicolas Sarkozy was to hold peace talks in Moscow.
Here are some of the implications for Russia, Georgia and the West.
* Russia has shown once again it calls the shots regionally, whether it is
turning off gas supplies to Ukraine, turning off oil supplies to Lithuania or
rebuffing a Georgian attempt to retake the pro-Russian, breakaway region of
South Ossetia.
* Moscow tuned out calls by the United States, NATO and the European Union to
halt its offensive in Georgia until it was satisfied the timing was right and
it had achieved its objective of driving Georgian forces out of South Ossetia.
* Moscow's announcement of a unilateral halt to its military operations came
shortly before French President Nicholas Sarkozy was due to speak to Russian
President Dmitry Medvedev in an effort to broker a peace deal. It looks to
have made the shuttle diplomacy by France, the EU and OSCE largely irrelevant.
* Analysts say the United States' unwavering support of Georgia's pro-Western
President Mikheil Saakashvili encouraged him to overreach himself and
ultimately left Washington with little room to maneuver.
* The European Union, reliant on Russia for much of its oil and gas, showed
itself relatively powerless against the will of Moscow.
* Russia may feel emboldened by its perceived success, but it may pay a price
in terms of foreign investment. The rouble fell one percent against a
dollar/euro basket on Friday and extended losses on Monday, though some of
this was reversed after Medvedev's ceasefire announcement. Russian stocks hit
their lowest level in two years on Monday. Foreign investors fear a
deteriorating climate in Russia. They were already unnerved by the battle for
control of oil firm TNK-BP and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's attack on the
pricing policies of New York-listed coal and steel firm Mechel.
* Anyone wondering who calls the shots in Russia will have noticed Putin's
lead role in articulating Russian policy, his appearance on the front line
and his two conversations with U.S. President George W. Bush compared with
Medvedev's one. Putin handed over the presidency to Medvedev last year but
many observers suspected the prime minister would continue to wield the
power. It may become more difficult for Medvedev to command authority, though
it was he who announced the unilateral ceasefire on Tuesday.
* For Georgia's Saakashvili the future looks very uncertain. Defeat in South
Ossetia could mean Georgia has lost the province for good, a bitter blow to
Saakashvili who had promised to restore central control there and in
Abkhazia, the other breakaway Georgian region. His military has been
humiliated.
* Saakashvili's political currency has been debased. Longer term that could
lead Georgians to question the wisdom of such stridently pro-Western
policies. Even before the conflict, some opposition leaders had criticized
his policy of confrontation with Russia.
* The crushing setback over South Ossetia could fuel domestic opposition to
Saakashvili's rule. Tens of thousands of people attended a protest rally in
May challenging the results of a snap January presidential poll and spring
legislative elections, saying they were rigged.
* Moscow has made clear it no longer sees Saakashvili as a reliable partner
and believes he should resign.
http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-Georgia/idUSLC40785420080812?sp=true
c Thomson Reuters 2008 All rights reserved
新聞來源: (需有正確連結)
--
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 220.129.160.228