標題:Georgia facing reality of defeat
By Thomas de Waal
Institute for War and Peace Reporting
When Russian troops eventually pull out of Georgian towns such as Gori and
Zugdidi, ordinary Georgians will heave a sigh of relief.
But that will also be the moment that they take on board the fact that the
two territories at the heart of the conflict with Moscow, South Ossetia and
Abkhazia, although formally still regarded internationally as Georgian
territory, are now essentially lost to them.
The people who will suffer most in the long term from this conflict are more
than 20,000 ethnic Georgians from a mosaic of villages in South Ossetia who
have now mostly fled.
Relatively few Georgians left during or after the small-scale 1990-92
conflict over South Ossetia and despite intermittent skirmishes and
incidents, neighbourly contacts continued.
Reporters who have passed through many of the villages in the last few days
say they are now in ruins.
The Russian authorities and their South Ossetian allies are now saying that
they will not allow the Georgians back any time soon.
A Russian foreign ministry statement on August 18 said, "It is clear that
some time – and not a short period of time – must pass in order to heal the
wounds and to restore confidence. Only after this, the conditions will be
created for discussing practical aspects related to the problems of refugees."
Hundreds of South Ossetians also lost their homes in the Georgian military
assault of 7-8 August and, it appears, in the ensuing Russian counter-attack
- but they have the small consolation of knowing they can start rebuilding
them.
Russian leverage
The prospect is also now much bleaker for the 240,000 or so ethnic Georgians
who were registered as displaced from the 1992-3 conflict in Abkhazia.
Their hopes of return were predicated on a successful peace agreement which
now looks more elusive than ever.
Around 50,000 Georgians live in Abkhazia's southernmost Gali district under
an Abkhaz administration.
So far they have managed to stay in their homes, but their future is also
more precarious.
It is not just a matter of Georgian control. It will also be harder now to
maintain an international presence in the two disputed regions.
The final point in the six-point ceasefire plan reads: "Pending an
international mechanism [in South Ossetia], Russian peacekeeping forces will
implement additional security measures."
That effectively puts an end to the former Joint Peacekeeping Forces, which
had a Georgian contingent.
It also gives Moscow even more leverage than before over the shape of any
security arrangements for the region.
Moscow is already insisting it can have the only real security presence there.
"We are of course not against international peacekeepers... but the problem
is that the Abkhaz and the Ossetians do not trust anyone except Russian
peacekeepers," Russian president Dmitry Medvedev told German chancellor
Angela Merkel.
Unattainable dream
The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), the only
international organization with a mandate in South Ossetia, wants to dispatch
an additional 100 monitors to South Ossetia.
But Russia has dragged its feet, saying it wanted to agree the terms of their
deployment in more detail and the OSCE has so far agreed to send just 20 more
monitors.
The OSCE had just nine military monitors on the ground in South Ossetia when
fighting started there on 7-8 August.
The European Union, with French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner taking the
lead, also says it want to provide peacekeepers, but Mr Kouchner's Swedish
counterpart, Carl Bildt, admitted this might not work.
"There are no signs of the Russians letting in anyone else," he said.
In Abkhazia, the United Nations has a small contingent of around 130 unarmed
monitors, who were bystanders in the recent crisis.
When the Abkhaz, with Russian support, wanted to capture the mountainous
Upper Kodori Gorge district from the Georgians, they merely gave the UN
monitors there a 24-hour warning to leave.
The EU has approved small aid programmes for both Abkhazia and South Ossetia
in the last few years, but they have looked relatively modest when compared
to the vast amount of Russian money coming into both regions.
Abkhazia is bigger and more diverse than South Ossetia with a lively media
and many non-governmental organizations.
Many Abkhaz intellectuals dreamed of having some kind of independence free of
both Georgia and Russia and with links across the Black Sea to the EU but
that now looks unattainable.
'Double standards'
Internationally mediated peace talks over both disputes had stalled and there
is little chance of them resuming properly any time soon.
Faced with a tightening Russian grip, Western leaders can only fall back on
expressing support for Georgia's right to these territories.
US President George W Bush made this commitment on 16 August, saying:
"Georgia's borders should command the same respect as every other nation's.
There's no room for debate on this matter."
This becomes a moral argument, with the Russians answering that after
supporting Kosovo's unilateral secession from Serbia, the West is guilty of
"double standards" in the Caucasus.
Caught in the middle of these international wrangles are the current and
former populations of both Abkhazia and South Ossetia – Abkhaz, Ossetians
and other nationalities such as Armenians on the one hand, and the displaced
Georgians on the other.
They often get along fine when they have a chance to engage in low-level
meetings arranged by foreign organisations or across market stalls.
Now, unfortunately, they are being wrenched apart further than ever by
conflict.
Thomas de Waal is Caucasus Editor at the Institute for War and Peace
Reporting in London.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7571002.stm
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