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推 AirWinters: 08/09 20:07
Analysis: why the Russia-Georgia conflict matters to the West
Richard Beeston, Foreign Editor
It would be a serious mistake for the international community to regard the
dramatic escalation of violence in Georgia as just another flare-up in the
Caucasus.
若國際社會認為在喬治亞地區的衝突事件只是另一起普通的高加索熱血事件，那就會
是個嚴重錯誤。
The names of the flashpoints may be unfamiliar, the territory remote and the
dispute parochial, but the battle under way will have important repercussions
beyond the region.
衝突各方可能名不見經傳，且該地區偏遠，其紛爭狹隘，但已經引燃的戰火會有超越
這個地區的重要震盪。
The outcome of the struggle will determine the course of Russia’s relations
with its neighbours, will shape Dmitri Medvedev’s presidency, could alter
the relationship between the Kremlin and the West and crucially could decide
the fate of Caspian basin energy supplies.
這次衝突的結局會取決於俄國與他臨邦的關係，且會行塑Dmitri Medvedev的總統格局，
同時會改變克里姆林工與西方之間的關係，還有決定裡海盆地能源資源的前途。
Quite what triggered the Georgian offensive, on the day that the world was
supposed to gather in peace for the start of the Beijing Olympics, is not yet
clear.
到底什麼讓喬治亞發動攻勢，且是在北京奧運開幕式這全世界應該都保持和平的一天，
還不甚明朗。
It was known that a serious confrontation had been building up. British
Intelligence predicted this year that a war in the Caucasus was probable. The
focus was Georgia, the West’s main ally in the region and the only export
route for Caspian oil and gas outside Kremlin control.
嚴重衝突的可能性在近期早就有跡象了。英國情報單位預測今年高加索地區爆發戰爭
是十分可能的。焦點是喬治亞，西方在該地區最主要的盟邦，以及克里姆林宮控制之外
唯一出口裡海油氣資源的途徑。
Part of the responsibility must lie with President Saakashvili. The
US-educated Geogian leader has rightly been praised for turning around his
country’s dire economy, transforming the Soviet-style army into a modern
Western force and standing up to the Kremlin.
部分的責任必須歸給Saakashvili。這位受過美國教育的喬治亞領袖因為翻轉其國家的
悲慘經濟而得到應有的讚美，並轉換蘇維埃系統的軍隊成為一支現代西方武力，同時
還忤逆克里姆林宮。
Georgia has been saddled for the best part of two decades with breakaway
regions in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, both supported by Russia as part of
the Kremlin’s strategy to weaken Tbilisi’s authority. Nevertheless, seeking
to reintegrate the separatist provinces by force is a risky, some would say
reckless, move that threatens to trigger an all-out war between Russia and
Georgia.
喬治亞過去二十年都必須承受Abkhazia和南奧賽梯這兩個分離主義地區。這兩個地區都受
俄羅斯的支持，屬於克里姆林宮弱化Tbilisi的權力的戰略。但是要以武力吞併這些分離
省分是非常危險的，有些人會說是魯莽的。這個動作可能引發俄國與喬治亞之間的全面
戰爭。
On paper the small Georgian military is no match for the might of Russia. But
Mr Saakashvili has calculated that his friends in the West, notably America
and Britain, will protect him. Russia must also shoulder responsibility for
the crisis. Under President Putin, the Kremlin increased its support for
Georgia’s breakaway regions, offering their inhabitants Russian citizenship
and arming separatist forces while pretending to be honest broker.
帳面上，小型的喬治亞軍隊不可能贏得了超強的俄國。但Saakashvili評估認為他的
西方朋友，特別是美國和英國，會保護他。俄國必須也要擔起這次危機的責任。在普丁
任內，克里姆林宮不斷增加對於喬治亞的分離主義地區的支持，提供他們的的住民
俄國公民權，並且提供武裝之餘還假裝當個非常誠實的仲裁者。
The Kremlin tried to break Georgia’s resolve by deporting its citizens from
Russia, imposing blockades and banning the import of Georgian goods. It had
been hoped that the election this year of President Medvedev might lead to an
easing of tensions between the two neighbours. It seems more likely that,
thanks to Mr Putin’s continued influence as Prime Minister and the role
played by hardliners in the military, Mr Medvedev may instead find himself
embroiled in war.
克里姆林宮試圖瓦解喬治亞的堅持，透過遣返喬治亞的公民，架起封鎖線並且禁運
喬治亞的貨物。曾有希望在今年Medvedev可以把兩方的緊張情勢降低。但看起來
更可能的是Medvedev將因為普丁居位總理的影響以及軍方鷹派的角色而陷入
一場戰爭之中。
The West, in particular America, has stoked the regional fire. At the Nato
summit in Bucharest this year it pressed for Georgia and Ukraine’s
membership of the alliance. The move was blocked by the Europeans but Nato
did give a commitment to offer the two countries membership later. That move
was seen in Moscow as a challenge to its dominance in what it calls the “
near abroad”, the former Soviet republics.
在西方，特別是美國，為這場地區之火添加柴火。今年在Bucharest的北歐高峰會中，
美國強勢推銷喬治亞和烏克蘭加入北約的主張。這個提議被歐洲國家否決了，但北約
確有對兩個國家做出未來能成為會員國的保證。這個行為被莫斯科視為挑戰其在各前
蘇維埃共和國之間的影響力。
Since then Russia has made clear in word and deed that it will do anything to
prevent Nato’s expansion on its western and southern flanks.
從那時起，俄國已經以言語和行動明確表達他會以任何手段避免NATO將其勢力擴張至
俄國的西部和南部疆界。
America and Britain are closely involved in providing military assistance to
the Georgians in the form of arms and training. The support is aimed at
encouraging the rise of Georgia as an independent, sovereign state.
美國和英國已經深度投入提供喬治亞軍事支援，提供武器和訓練。這個支持計畫是藥
支持喬治亞成為主權獨立的國家。
But the help is also partly a means of protecting the oil pipeline across
Georgia that carries crude from the Caspian to the Black Sea, the only export
route that bypasses Russia’s stranglehold on energy exports from the region.
但這個援助行動也是要保護經過喬治亞的裡海往黑海的油管，這是唯一一條俄國控管
之外的能源出口管道。
If Georgia succeeds in reimposing its sovereignty over South Ossetia in the
face of Russian opposition, it will be a huge setback to Moscow’s influence
in the region and embolden other former Soviet republics, such as Ukraine and
Azerbaijan. A defeat for the Georgians could signal the end of Mr Saakashvili
’s rule and severely set back Georgia’s efforts to establish itself as a
modern Western-looking democracy. Either way, the conflict risks further
undermining the strained relations between Russia and the West.
如果喬治亞成功奪回其在南奧賽提的主權，即便面臨俄國的反擊，那喬治亞的勝利可能
對莫斯科在當地的影響力造成極大打擊，並且鼓動其他其他的前蘇維埃共和國，如
烏克蘭和雅塞拜然。若喬治亞失敗，則可能顯示終結Saakashvili的政權並且嚴重阻礙
喬治亞希望能轉變成一個西方現代民主國家的機會。任兩條路都會讓這個衝突破壞已經
非常緊繃的俄國和西方關係。
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article4486297.ece
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