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標題:INSTANT VIEW - Russian president orders stop to Georgia ops
Tue Aug 12, 2008 8:23am EDT
(Reuters) - Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said on Tuesday he had ordered
troops to stop military operations in Georgia before he was due to meet
French President Nicholas Sarkozy for peace talks in Moscow.
俄國總統禮拜二說他命令於喬治亞的部隊停止軍事行動。此命令於他會見法國總統
Sarkozy前發佈。
Following are comments from political, economic and security analysts.
以下是政治、經濟、安全分析師的評論。
ABDULLAH GUL, PRESIDENT, TURKEY
土耳其總統
"We see Russia's decision to stop military operations in Georgia as a
positive development. I hope we see a ceasefire confirmed by the two sides as
soon as possible. Implementation of this decision is very important."
「我們解讀俄國停止於喬治亞的軍事行動為正面發展。我希望兩方會盡快確定停火協議。
落實停火是很重要的。」
"Turkey will continue its efforts for the reinstitution of peace and
stability in the region. We attach importance to Georgia's territorial
integrity and sovereignty."
「土耳其會持續在當地幫助恢復和平與穩定。喬治亞的主權和領土完整對我們來
說很重要。」
"A Caucasian stability pact idea is important in the medium term. We have
similar efforts in Middle East too."
「高加索穩定協約這個主意對中期來說很重要。我們在中東也有同樣的努力。」
JONATHON HAYES, ANALYST, JANE'S STRATEGIC ADVISORY SERVICE
詹氏戰略顧問服務分析師
"Russia's next steps will be to push for the recognition of South Ossetia and
Abkhazia."
「俄國下一步會推動南奧賽梯和Abkhazia的認同。」
"The loss of these regions would be an end to (Saakashvili's) political
career, so impending negotiations over the breakaway regions will be
extremely difficult."
「損失這些區域代表Saakashvili的政治生涯結束了，接下來關於那兩個分離的區域
的協商會非常困難。」
"Georgia is clearly the major loser here. However, American power and its
perception throughout the world has also suffered.
「喬治亞明顯是最大輸家。美國力量和國際觀感也受到打擊。」
"Russia wins well beyond what is going on in Georgia. President Putin
struggled for eight years to make Russia into an international player, but
most Moscow was powerless to move against U.S. and European policies in the
past (missile defence, NATO expansion, Iraq war, and Putin perceives the
recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as a tit for tat response to the
western recognition of Kosovo)."
「俄國贏得的遠比在喬治亞境內得到的多。普丁八年來費盡心思讓俄國重新成為
國際玩家，但莫斯科對美國和歐洲政策一直無法應對（包括飛彈防禦、北約擴張、
伊拉克戰爭普丁把南奧賽梯和Abkhazia的認同問題當作是對於西方認同科所沃的反擊）。
"Putin saw this as an erosion to Russian power. This conflict allowed Russia
to demonstrate its military might, but even more so, its willingness to
utilize it."
「普丁認為這是對俄國力量的侵蝕。這次衝突讓俄國展現他的軍事實力，也展現了俄國
願意用軍事力量的意志力。」
SVANTE E. CORNELL, CO-DIRECTOR, INSTITUTE FOR SECURITY AND
DEVELOPMENT POLICY, STOCKHOLM
安全暨發展政策組織協同主持人
"It's clear that at least for the foreseeable future the outcome of this
conflict has been Russia's annexation... of South Ossetia and Abkhazia."
「很明顯，未來發展會是俄國吞併南奧賽梯和Abkhazia。」
"(Georgia) has also seen a tremendous blow to its economy and potential to
attract investment and a humanitarian tragedy, but it's too early to say that
Georgia has only lost."
「喬治亞的經濟以及吸引外資的潛力受到打擊，同時這也是人道悲劇，但要說喬治亞
只有損失也是太早了。」
"There is a little soul searching to do on the part of European countries in
particular... What's been shown is the West's utter inability or
unwillingness to protect allies."
「對於歐洲國家來說這次特別須要捫心自問...現象是：西方完全無能與不願
幫同盟撐腰。」
"For the United States, for its credibility as a partner across Eurasia has
been severely damaged. There is no country in which the United States has
invested so much political capital as in Georgia in this part of the world."
對美國來說，其在歐亞的信用已經受到嚴重打擊。這個地區喬治亞是美國投注最多
政治資本的國家。」
EDWARD PARKER, HEAD OF EMERGING EUROPEAN SOVEREIGNS, FITCH
"Obviously any ceasefire would be a start towards reconciliation but it would
depend what conditions were attached and of course what happens next."
「顯然停火會是重修關係的開始，但這會要看談判帶著什麼條件，以及接下來會發生
什麼事情。」
"But it wouldn't make an immediate difference to their rating. It doesn't
look very good for Georgia. Going to war with Russia is bad for your
creditworthiness, to put it mildly."
但不管怎麼樣都不會影響大致格局。喬治亞看起來很不妙。與俄國作戰，保守點說，
對信賴度會有壞影響。」
VLADIMIR OSAKOVSKY, EMERGING MARKET STRATEGIST, UNICREDIT
Unicredit市場分析師
"We expect very positive market reaction to the effective end of military
action and potential movement towards diplomatic resolution of the conflict,
as the likelihood of further escalation of armed conflict has eased."
「我們預測市場會對軍事行動的終止以及衝突朝向外交解決發展反應良好，同時進一步
武裝衝突升級的可能性已經降低。」
"However, we need to emphasize the crisis is not over yet... We continue to
believe the conflict is very unlikely to end in a new freeze into the quiet
military standoff that has persisted since 1992, as such solution is
unacceptable to both sides."
「但是我們強調危機還沒結束。我們持續相信衝突不會以1992年以來的冷凍方式作為
結束，這對雙方都是無法接受的。」
ANDY SOMMER, OIL MARKET ANALYST, HSH NORDBANK
石油市場分析師
"It is a little bit of good news because the situation there can be relaxed a
bit and some stopped supplies from Kazakhstan and Turkey can be shipped again
soon. Oil from Ceyhan is distillate-rich so it is a good news.
這是個不錯的消息，當地的局勢可以穩定些，來自哈薩克和土耳其一些停止供給的油料
也可以再次運出。Ceyhan的油仍然是餾分油，所以是好消息。
But it is not such a big thing that the market is going to react
significantly. The oil market has not even reacted to the supply disruptions
from Ceyhan. So we may not see a big change."
「但這消息沒大到市場會顯著反應。由市場還沒有對Ceyhan的供應中斷做出反應。
所以我們可能不會看到什麼顯著的改變。」
MICHAEL DENISON, RUSSIA EXPERT, CHATHAM HOUSE THINKTANK,
查森屋智庫，俄國專家
LONDON
"I think probably the element of international concern has played a part.
What we don't know as yet are the dynamics of Russian internal politics. I'm
sure there was a fairly intense debate going on behind the scenes in the
Kremlin."
「我想國際憂慮有影響。我們不知道的是俄國內部政治的動態。我確定克里姆林宮內
有很激烈的辯論。」
"I would not expect a very strong or unified EU response in relation to this
... What we will find with increasing intensity is a sort of 'What to do with
Russia?' conversation, but that's been doing on since 2004."
我不期待歐盟會對此有強烈或統一的回應...我們會發現一些更頻繁的「該怎麼對付
俄國」的討論，但這從2004就開始了。
"It's highly unlikely now that South Ossetia will come back to Georgia ... I
think what these conflicts have pretty much sealed their fate (of South
Ossetia and Abkhazia)."
南奧賽梯不太可能重新回到喬治亞統治下。我想這些衝突已經確定了南奧賽梯和
Abkhazia的未來了。」
"They've acted as insulators against the resumption of Georgian control
unless there is a very intensive diplomatic track which works very
consistently and rapidly towards a solution here, but I think that's
unlikely."
他們一直在抗拒喬治亞重新控制，除非有很密集的外交軌跡用很連貫地和快速地方式
邁向一個解決方法，但這不太可能。
VIKTOR CHUMAK, MILITARY ANALYST, AT THE INTERNATIONAL CENTRE
FOR POLICY STUDIES, KIEV.
"Ceasing fire today doesn't make a difference. Russia has already achieved
most, 80 percent, of what it wanted to achieve. It only did not achieve a
regime change. Russia has shown precisely that it is in control of the
southern Caucasus. It has consolidated its position."
現在停火意義不大。俄國已經達成80％的目的了。他們的目的不是更換政府。俄國展現出
南高加索是在他的控制之中。他確立了自己的位置。
"NATO countries did not have a uniform stance on Georgia's and Ukraine's NATO
membership and Russia took advantage."
北約國家沒有統一立場處理喬治亞和烏克蘭的北約會員國問題，俄國於是佔了便宜。
"This is a very serious issue for Ukraine. We are thinking very seriously
what it means for Ukrainian politics."
對烏克蘭來說這是非常嚴重的。我們認為對烏克蘭政治來說這非常嚴重。
"As long as Ukraine is not a NATO member Russia can do as she pleases. This
situation could repeat itself in the (pro-Russia) Crimean region. Maybe not
today or tomorrow but in a year or two or three."
只要烏克蘭不是北約會員國，俄國可以為所欲為。這個情況可以在克里米亞地區重演。
可能不是今天或明天但在一兩年或三年之內。
ULRICH LEUCHTMANN, STRATEGIST, COMMERZBANK CORPORATES &
MARKETS, FRANKFURT:
"It's very positive news for the rouble because the Georgian crisis was the
only argument for the rouble weakness we saw in the last couple of days. With
the crisis seemingly gone the rouble should recover from the losses it
suffered."
對盧布來說是好消息，因為喬治亞危機是盧布最近幾天疲軟的唯一可能。危機似乎解除
後，盧布應該會脫離疲軟並重拾之前的損失。
"Certainly there will be a slightly higher risk premium to Russia, because
the market normally remember such higher volatility periods for quite a
while. But if the immediate political and military risk is gone, there could
also be a recovery (in equities)".
當然對俄國來說會有一些些高的風險溢價，因為市場通常會對這種高震盪期記憶深刻。
但如果立即的政治和軍事風險解除，在證券方面會有些回復。」
DENIS KEEFE, BRITISH AMBASSADOR TO GEORGIA, ON BBC TV:
英國駐喬治亞大使
"If this news that military operations are stopping is correct, then that it
what this country needs and we can then get on to build peace.
如果這個軍事行動停止的消逝是正確的，那這就是這個國家需要的，我們可以
從此開始建立和平。
"This is a beautiful place with a wonderful people. They don't deserve the
suffering that has been inflicted by military operations."
這個地方很每人很好。他們不應該受到這種軍事行動的迫害。
MICHAL THIM, ANALYST, ASSOCIATION FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS,
PRAGUE:
布拉格國際事務協會分析師
"We have to wait and see if this is implemented.
我們必須看有沒有落實。
"Russia militarily and politically achieved what it wanted. In all that time,
apart from some verbal criticism, it has not met any sharp or fundamental
reaction from the United States nor Europe.
俄國達成了軍事和政治目的。這段時間內，雖然有很多言語衝突，但俄國沒有面臨美國
或是歐洲的任何尖銳地和顯著的反應。
"The EU council of ministers is only meeting tomorrow and it was Russia's
interest to put them in front of a final state of affairs which they seem to
have achieved.
歐盟部長會議明天才開會，俄國的利益是把他們放在好像是他們完成的事件結局面前。
"It would be tactically disadvantageous for Russia to continue in its actions
during that meeting given that they had achieved what they wanted.
對於俄國來說，在該會議期間持續行動對戰略不利，特別是當他們已經達成所有目標了。
"The attacks on the territory of Georgia and the military action outside the
areas of conflict discredited Russia and I cannot see how Russia wants to
defend the role of an arbiter, a neutral player in those conflicts.
對於喬治亞領域的攻擊以及在衝突區域之外的軍事行動讓俄國有些理虧，而我看不出來
俄國要如何為自己作為仲裁者、中立者辯護。
"EU ministers should agree on changing the negotiating formats for the
conflicts in Ossetia and Abkhazia. The role of Russia can no longer be that
of an arbiter of these conflicts.
歐盟各部長應該要針對更換奧賽梯與Abkhazia的協商形式。俄國的角色不在能夠擔任
衝突的協調者了。
NEIL SHEARING, EMERGING MARKETS ECONOMIST, CAPITAL ECONOMICS
新興市場經濟學家
"We'll see a bounce in stocks. We saw the currency bounce back this morning.
我們會看股市反彈。我們今早已經看到幣值回升了。
"Nonetheless, investors will remain cautious for some time. This is just yet
another in a long line of events that have raised political risk levels in
Russia.
但是投資者還是會謹慎一陣子。這只是另外一起在俄國突然抬生的政治風險。
"Last month we had Putin making some fairly ominous warning sounds on OAO
metal, a mining conglomerate, and hinting at the fact that they may have some
tax irregularities, ominous overtones that are reminiscent of what happened
with YUKOS."
上個月我們已經聽過普丁對俄羅斯金屬發出一些警告了，並且還暗示他們可能會有一些
稅率不正常。這不祥的提示似乎與俄國石油事件當時類似。
"and that is coupled with the fact that the economy is actually overheating.
I think investors will remain cautious, but we will see a bounce in all asset
classes over the coming days and weeks."
且這還要加上經濟其實已經過熱。我想投資者會保持謹慎，但我們會看到所有資產分類
在皆下來幾天和幾個禮拜內回春。
(Reporting by Reuters bureaus)
c Thomson Reuters 2008 All rights reserved
http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-Georgia/idUKLC38599920080812?sp=true
新聞來源: (需有正確連結)
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