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標題:Six days that broke one country - and reshaped the world order
# Ian Traynor
# The Guardian,
# Saturday August 16 2008
Pity Georgia's bedraggled first infantry brigade. And its second. And its
hapless navy.
同情喬治亞被打爆的第一步兵旅。還有第二。跟他不幸的海軍。
For the past few evenings in the foothills of the Southern Caucasus on the
outskirts of Joseph Stalin's hometown of Gori, reconnaissance units of
Russia's 58th army have been raking through the spoils of war at what was the
Georgian army's pride and joy, a shiny new military base inaugurated only
last January for the first infantry, the army engineers, and an artillery
brigade.
過去幾個夜晚，在南高加索山腳，以及在史達林的故鄉革里外郊，俄國第五十八軍的
搜索部隊正在喬治亞去年一月才為第一軍、軍隊工程師、以及一個砲兵旅建的軍事基地裡
翻箱倒櫃。
A couple of hours to the west, in the town of Senaki, it's the same picture.
A flagship military base, home to the second infantry brigade, is in Russian
hands. And down on the Black Sea coast, the radars and installations for
Georgia's sole naval base at Poti have been scrupulously pinpointed by the
Russians and destroyed.
往西幾個小時遠的Senaki也是同樣景象。第二步兵旅的頂級軍事基地落入了俄軍手中。
在黑海沿岸，落座Poti的喬治亞唯一一座海軍基地裡，雷達和各種設備被俄軍非常
仔細地瞄準並摧毀了。
Gori and Senaki are not ramshackle relics of the old Red Army of the type
that litter the landscape of eastern Europe. "These bases have only recently
been upgraded to Nato standard," said Matthew Clements, Eurasia analyst at
Jane's Information Group. "They have been operationally targeted to seriously
degrade the Georgian military."
革里和賽那其並非舊紅軍那種玷污東歐各地景象的破舊古蹟。「這些基地最近才被升級成
北歐等級，」詹氏資訊集團歐亞區分析師Matthew Clements說。「這些基地是策略性
標的，目標是要降低喬治亞軍隊的等級。」
"There is a presence of our armed forces near Gori and Senaki. We make no
secret of it," said the general staff in Moscow. "They are there to defuse an
enormous arsenal of weapons and military hardware which have been discovered
in the vicinity of Gori and Senaki without any guard whatsoever."
「我們有武裝勢力部屬在革里和賽那其附近。這我們很公開，」莫斯科參謀部表示。
「他們在那裡解除一批非常大數量的武裝以及軍事硬體；那些設備是在革里和賽那其
附近被發現了，而且沒有人守著。」
The "enormous arsenals" are American-made or American-supplied. American
money, know-how, planning, and equipment built these bases as part of
Washington's drive to bring Nato membership to a small country that is
Russia's underbelly.
這批「數量龐大的武裝」都是美製或美供的。美國錢、美國知識、計畫、以及設備，
是華盛頓望能讓這個俄國軟腹位置的國家能取得北約會員身份所做的努力。
The American "train and equip" mission for the Georgian military is six years
old. It has been destroyed in as many days. And with it, Georgia's Nato
ambitions. "There are a few countries that will say 'told you so'" about the
need to get Georgia into Nato," said Andrew Wilson, Russia expert at the
European Council on Foreign Relations. "But many more will want to walk away
from the problem. And for the next few years, Georgia will be far too busy
trying to pick itself up."
美國支持喬治亞軍方的「訓練與裝備」任務已經六年了。但在幾天之內這個計畫救被
摧毀了。同時被摧毀的還有喬治亞加入北約的企圖。「有些國家會說「我就跟你說吧」
來強調讓喬治亞加入北約的需要，」歐洲理事會外交關係部門的俄國專家Andrew Wilson
說道。但還有更多國家會避開這個問題。同時，接下來幾年，喬治亞會忙著把自己
撐起來。」
If Georgia and Nato are the principal casualties of this week's ruthless
display of brute power by Vladimir Putin, the consequences are bigger still,
the fallout immense, if uncertain. The regional and the global balance of
power looks to have tilted, against the west and in favour of the rising or
resurgent players of the east.
如果喬治亞和北約是這禮拜普丁展現赤裸權力的主要受害者，那麼後續惡果就更嚴重，
且後勁十足，同時不明。地域和全球權力平衡似乎傾斜了，對西方不利，而是對於
東方逐漸興起的玩家有利。
In a seminal speech in Munich last year, Putin confidently warned the west
that he would not tolerate the age of American hyperpower. Seven years in
office at the time and at the height of his powers, he delivered his most
anti-western tirade
在一場慕尼黑的演講中，普丁有信心地警告西方，他不會再容忍美國超強的時代。
那時他已在位七年，並是在權力的顛峰；那時他提出了他最反西方語言:
Pernicious
邪惡
To an audience that included John McCain, the White House contender, and
Robert Gates, the US defence secretary and ex-Kremlinologist, he served
notice: "What is a unipolar world? It refers to one type of situation, one
centre of authority, one centre of force, one centre of decision-making. It
is world in which there is one master, one sovereign. This is pernicious ...
unacceptable ... impossible."
對一席觀眾包括馬坎、美國國防部部長以及前克里姆林宮專家蓋滋，普丁提出：「什麼
是單極世界？這概念代表只有一種狀態，一個中心權力，一個中心力量，一個決策中心。
這是一個只有一個主人、一個主權的世界。這是邪惡的。無法接受的。不可能的。」
This week, he turned those words into action, demonstrating the limits of US
power with his rout of Georgia. His forces roamed at will along the roads of
the Southern Caucasus, beyond Russia's borders for the first time since the
disastrous Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s.
這禮拜，他把這些言語化做行動，用喬治亞的潰敗展示出美國力量的極限。他的武裝力量
在南高加索山區域無拘無束地漫遊，且是在1980年代蘇維埃災難性地佔領阿富汗之後
俄軍跨界活動的第一次。
As the Russian officers sat on the American stockpiles of machine guns,
ammunition, and equipment in Gori, they were savouring a highly unusual
scenario. Not since the Afghan war had the Russians seized vast caches of US
weaponry. "People are sick to the stomach in Washington," said a former
Pentagon official. And the Russians are giddy with success.
俄國軍官坐在革里城裡成堆的美製機槍、彈藥、以及裝備上，享受非常特殊的景象。
俄軍自從阿富汗以後就從來沒有擄獲大批的美軍武器了。「在華盛頓有一批很幹的人，」
一名五角大廈官員說。而俄軍正因為勝利很爽。
Celebrating the biggest victory in eight years of what might be termed
Putinism, the dogged pursuit by whatever means to avenge a long period of
Russian humiliation and to deploy his limited range of levers - oil, gas, or
brute force - to make the world listen to Moscow, the Russian prime minister
has redrawn the geopolitical map.
慶祝八年的（或可稱）普丁主義所帶來的最大勝利，無所不用其極地追求勝利來報復
長久以來俄國的羞辱，並使用俄國有限的槓桿力量，包括油、氣、與武力，來讓世界
聽到莫斯科的聲音：這位俄國總理重新畫過了地緣政治地圖。
In less than a week, Putin has invaded another country, effectively
partitioned Georgia in a lightning campaign, weakened his arch-enemy,
President Mikheil Saakashvili, divided the west, and presented a fait
accompli. The impact - locally, regionally, and globally - is huge.
在一個禮拜內，普丁侵略了一個國家，成功地用閃電行動三分喬治亞，弱化了他最討厭
的敵人Saakashvili，讓西方內訌，並且搞了個木已成舟。這次的衝擊，不管在地域、
區域、或是全球的衝擊，都是巨大的。
"The war in Georgia has put the European order in question," said Alexander
Rahr, one of Germany's leading Russia experts and a Putin biographer. "The
times are past when you can punish Russia."
「在喬治亞的戰爭讓歐洲秩序陷入疑問，」德國最重要的俄國專家之一的Alexander Rahr
說道。Rahr也寫過普丁傳記。「你能懲罰俄國的時代已經過去了。」
That seems to be the view among leading European policymakers who have been
scrambling all week to arrange and shore up a fragile ceasefire, risking
charges of appeasing the Kremlin.
似乎這就是歐洲主要的政策制訂者現在的心態。他們一整個禮拜都在拼老命地試圖湊出
個停火共識，甚至還冒著偏袒克里姆林宮的風險。
"Don't ask us who's good and who's bad here," said Bernard Kouchner, the
French foreign minister, after shuttling between Tbilisi and Moscow to try to
halt the violence. "We shouldn't make any moral judgments on this war.
Stopping the war, that's what we're interested in."
「別問我們誰是好人誰是壞人，」法國外長Kouchner說道。他之前往返提伯利希與莫斯科
之間數次，希望制止暴力衝突。「我們不應該對這次戰爭做出任何道德判斷。停止戰爭，
這才是我們在乎的事情。」
His boss, President Nicolas Sarkozy, went to the Kremlin to negotiate a
ceasefire and parade as a peacemaker. Critics said he acted as Moscow's
messenger, noting Putin's terms then taking them to Tbilisi to persuade
Saakashvili to capitulate. Germany also refused to take sides while Italy
warned against building an "anti-Moscow coalition".
他的老大薩柯奇總統前往克里姆林宮協調停火並展現和平製造者的風範。批評者說
他是莫斯科的傳話者，點出普丁的要求然後帶到提伯利希去遊說Saakashvili服從。
德國也拒絕選邊站，義大利則對於建起「反莫斯科聯盟」提出警告。
That contrasted with Gordon Brown's and David Milliband's talk of Russian
"aggression" and Condoleezza Rice's arrival in Tbilisi yesterday to rally
"the free world behind a free Georgia".
這與英國首相布朗和英國外交大臣米利班對於俄國「進犯」的談話，以及美國國務卿
昨天在提伯利希召集「自由世界支持自由的喬治亞」等說法是抵觸的。
The effects of Putin's coup are first felt locally and around Russia's rim.
"My view is that the Russians, and I would say principally prime minister
Putin, is interested in reasserting Russia's, not only Russia's great power
or superpower status, but in reasserting Russia's traditional spheres of
influence," said Gates. "My guess is that everyone is going to be looking at
Russia through a different set of lenses as we look ahead."
普丁的小計畫所造成的影響開始先在俄國周圍區域發酵。「我的看法是，俄國人，特別是
總理普丁，在乎重新強調俄國傳統的地域影響力，而非俄國強大的力量或超強的資格，」
蓋滋說。「我猜想，當我們往前看時，所有人都會開始用不同的眼光看著俄國。」
In Kiev certainly. Ukraine's pro-western prime minister, Viktor Yushchenko,
Saaksahvili's fellow colour-revolutionary, is chastened and wary. His
firebrand anti-Russian prime minister, Yuliya Tymoshenko, has gone
uncharacteristically quiet.
特別是在基輔。烏克蘭的傾西總統[新聞筆誤]尤申科，（同時也是Saaksavili顏色革命
的同志），不僅拘謹還謹慎。他的反俄總理季莫申科也一反常態地靜默。
Invasion
侵略
"An invasion of Ukraine by 'peacekeeping tanks' is just a question of time,"
wrote Aleksandr Sushko, director of Kiev's Institute of Euro-Atlantic
Cooperation. "Weimar Russia is completing its transformation into something
else. If Russia wins this war, a new order will take shape in Europe which
will have no place for Ukraine as a sovereign state."
「維和目的的坦克部隊入侵烏克蘭只是時間問題」，基輔的歐洲太平洋合作組織首長
Sushko寫到。「威馬俄國正在完成他的轉變，成為一個新本體。如果俄國贏了這場戰爭，
歐洲會有新秩序，並不會有讓烏克蘭以主權國家存在的地位。」
All around Russia's rim, the former Soviet "captive states" are trembling.
Even Belarus, the slavishly loyal "last dictatorship in Europe", went
strangely silent, taking days before the regime offered Moscow its support.
"Everybody's nervous," said Wilson.
俄國周圍，各個前蘇聯「俘虜國家」都在顫抖。就連白俄羅斯，奴隸般忠心的「歐洲
最後的獨裁政體」，也非常奇特地保持沈默，一直延後好幾天才對莫斯科表達支持。
「所有人都很緊張，」Wilson說。
The EU states of the Baltic and Poland are drumming up support for Georgia,
with the Polish president Lech Kaczynski declaring that Russia has revealed
"its true face". That divides the EU since the French and the Germans refuse
to take sides and are scornful of east European "hysteria" towards Russia.
Rahr in Berlin says the German and French governments are striving to keep
the Poles and the Baltic states well away from any EU-led peace negotiations.
It was the Germans and the French who, in April, blunted George Bush's drive
to get Georgia into Nato. They will also resist potential US moves to kick
Russia out of the G8 or other international bodies.
波羅的海國家與波蘭都在敲邊鼓支持喬治亞，以波蘭總統為首宣布俄國已經「露出
真實面目」。這發言讓歐盟出現裂縫，因為法國與德國都拒絕選邊，並且對於東歐
的「俄國歇斯底里」非常鄙視。Rahr在柏林談到德國和法國政府都在希望不讓波蘭和
波羅的海國家參加任何歐盟主持的和平協商過程。就是德國人和法國人在四月拒絕了
布希推動喬治亞加入北約的企圖。他們也抵住了美國希望用暗盤把俄國逐出G8和其他
國際組織的行動。
There are many who argue that Putin's gamble will backfire, that he has
bitten off more than he can chew, that Russia remains weak, a "Saudi Arabia
with trees" in the words of Robert Hunter, the former US ambassador to Nato.
有許多人在強調，普丁的賭注會有後座力的，普丁咬太大快嚼不動，俄國仍然很軟弱，
俄國是個「有樹的阿拉伯」，套用前美國派北約大使Robert Hunter的話。
Compared to the other rising powers of China, India or even Brazil - the
companions referred to as the BRIC - Russia does indeed appear weak. Its
economy struggles to develop goods or services, depends on raw material
exports and on European consumption and the price of oil for its current
wealth.
與其他如中國、印度、或巴西這些金磚四國成員比較俄國的確看起來嫩了點。俄國的經濟
仍在掙扎發展實業或服務業，倚靠原物料出口、歐洲消費力、以及油價來維持現在的
財富。
Resources
資源
But Putin's talent is for playing a weak hand well, maximising and
concentrating his limited resources, and creating facts on the ground while
the west dithers.
但普丁的強項就是把弱牌玩強，讓有限的資源集中並極大化利益，並趁西方猶疑時
製造實利。
"There is a lack of a clear and unified European policy towards Russia," said
Clements. In the crucial contest over energy "the Russian strategy of keeping
control of exports and supply is outpacing any European response".
「歐洲沒有清楚並一直的對俄政策，」Clements說道。在爭奪能源戰上，「俄國掌握出口
和資源配給的策略面對任何歐洲對策都佔了先機。」
Putin may now calculate he can call off the dogs of war, having achieved his
aims and able to pocket his gains very cheaply. The Georgia campaign becomes
the triumphant climax of Putinism.
普丁現在可能在計算他可以避免戰爭，特別是當他已經達成目的，並能夠用極低的成本
把他的口袋塞滿。喬治亞戰役成為普丁主義最榮耀的顛峰。
"In politics, it is very important to know one's measure," wrote Aleksey
Arbatov, director of Moscow's International Security Centre. "If Russia
continues to inflict strikes on Georgian territory, on facilities, on
population centres, we may lose the moral supremacy we have today."
「搞政治，就要摸清楚每個人的策略，」莫斯科國際安全中心主持人Aleksey Arbatov
寫到。「如果俄國持續攻擊喬治亞領域的設施與人口集中中心，我們可能就會喪失
現在擁有的道德優勢。」
But Wilson and many in eastern Europe worry that rather than being the climax
of Putinism, the Russians in Georgia signal the start of something else.
"This may not be a culmination, but only step one," said Wilson. "If you
don't stop this kind of behaviour, it escalates."
但Wilson與許多東歐人士在擔心俄國在搞的不是普丁主義的高峰，而是其他的東西。
「這可能不是高點，而是第一步，」Wilson說道。「如果不制止這種行為，就會升級。」
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/aug/16/georgia.russia1
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