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Analysis: Georgia's decision to shell Tskhinvali could prove 'reckless'
President timed action to coincide with Olympics, says academic
* David Hearst and James Orr
* guardian.co.uk,
* Friday August 08 2008 17:05 BST
* Article history
It has always been hard to work out who fired the first shot in any of the
many conflicts that had broken out in the Caucasus.
高加索地區的衝突事件中，是誰開第一槍總是很難理出。
Ever since June 1992, when the tiny mountain enclave of South Ossetia won the
first round of its bid to detach itself from Georgia, the two sides have been
intermittently at war.
自從1992年六月開始，當南奧賽提這小小的山中國贏得了自喬治亞獨立的第一回合後，
兩方便不時交火為惡。
But the flare-ups in the last decade have been skirmishes, and for a while it
looked as though peace had broken out.
但前十年只是小規模的衝突，且有一陣子還似乎和平能探出頭了。
The weapons used today — tanks, multiple rocket launchers and fighter
aircraft — made the fighting qualitatively different.
今天用的武器──坦克，火箭筒，戰機──使爭執質變了。
Observers had little doubt that the operation to take South Ossetia back
under Georgian control bore the hallmarks of a planned military offensive.
旁觀者應不會懷疑喬治亞政府這次奪回南奧賽提的行動有諸多謀畫過的軍事行動的特質。
It was not the result of a ceasefire that had broken down the night before -
it was more a fulfilment of the promise the Georgian president, Mikhail
Saakashvili, had made to recapture lost national territory, and with it a
measure of nationalist pride.
這不是因為停火協議在前晚中斷了──反而是喬治亞總統Mikhail Saakashvili要
奪回其喪失的國土的承諾，同時也是奪回國族光榮的企圖。
The assault appears to be have carefully timed to coincide with the opening
of the Olympics when the Russian prime minister, Vladimir Putin, was in
Beijing.
喬治亞政府軍的攻擊似乎非常巧合地與北京奧運時間配合，即當俄國總理普丁在北京
的時候。
Tom de Waal, of the Institute for War and Peace Reporting and an expert on
the region, said: "Clearly there have been incidents on both sides, but this
is obviously a planned Georgian operation, a contingency plan they have had
for some time, to retake [the South Ossetian capital] Tskhinvali.
戰爭與和平報導研究所的該區專家Tom de Waal說：「明顯地雙方都有鬧出事件，
但這次明顯是有計畫的喬治亞政府行動，他們已經計畫已久的應變計畫，來重新奪回
南奧賽提首都Tskhinvali。
"Possibly the Georgians calculated that, with Putin in Beijing, they could
recapture the capital in two days and then defend it over the next two
months, because the Russians won't take this lying down."
可能喬治亞當局評估，當普丁在北京時，他們可以在兩天之內重奪Tskhinvali，並且在
皆下來兩個月內守住該城，畢竟俄國不會按兵不動。」
If Georgia calculated that Russia would be inhibited by Putin's presence at
the Olympics, that soon backfired.
如果喬治亞評估認為俄國會被普丁在奧運現場所限制住，他們馬上吃了苦頭。
Within hours, the Russian president, Dmitri Medvedev, chaired a session of
the security council in the Kremlin, ordering units of the 58th Russian army
to retake Tskhinvali. The Russian president's military credentials are so
weak - he had no other choice.
幾小時內，俄國總統Dmitri Medvedev載客里姆林宮主持了一個國安會議之後，命令
第五十八軍開拔奪回Tskhinvali。俄國總統的軍方影響力弱到他沒有任何選擇。
Many of the 75,000 inhabitants of Tskhinvali and its outlying villages are
now Russian citizens, with passports and rights to settle in Russia.
75000名Tskhinvali以及周圍村落的住民現在已經是俄國公民，手持俄國護照以及
俄國居留權。
Northern Ossetia, with whom the southern separatists want to join, is
formally part of the Russian Federation. While Georgians view South Ossetia
as a part of its sovereign territory, there is a rival Ossetian claim.
北奧賽提，即南方分離份子希望加入的組織，之前是俄國聯邦的一部份。喬治亞認為
南奧賽提是其主權領土的一部份，北奧賽提則主張南奧賽提是他們的。
It predates the current authoritarian regime in the Kremlin, but still links
the enclave to the mothership of the Russian Federation.
北奧是在現在克里姆林宮政權之前就出現了，但仍然就歸屬而言是在俄羅斯聯邦的羽翼
之下。
Jonathan Eyal, the director of studies at the Royal United Services Institute
(Rusi), warned that all-out war between Russian and Georgia would amount to
"the worst crisis in Europe since the end of communism".
皇家聯合服務中心研究部門主任Jonathan Eyal警告，全面性的俄國喬治亞戰爭會變成
「歐洲自共產主義瓦解後最嚴重的危機」。
He described Georgia's decision to shell Tskhinvali as a brazen effort to
humiliate the Russians.
他形容喬治亞轟炸Tskhinvali的決策是魯莽的、並讓讓俄國蒙羞的舉動。
"It is clearly a calculated gamble by the Georgians," he said.
「這明顯是喬治亞當局計算過的賭注」，他說。
"If they manage to overrun South Ossetia, where there are probably only
around 1,000 Russian troops at the moment, they will have humiliated Russia
and would have created a triumph for themselves.
「如果他們終於攻佔南奧賽提，而其中有一千名俄國士兵部屬在那：他們就會羞辱了
俄國政府，並且為自己塑造出勝利的景象。
"They will also have propelled the west into a diplomatic involvement on the
ground."
「他們也會把西方世界捲入以外交手段介入地面行動。」
Eyal claimed there was considerable sympathy among western powers over
Georgia's difficult relationship with Russia.
Eyal認為，西方強權對於喬治亞面對俄國的困境多有同情。
He said the country was suffering from a deliberate "strategic fermentation"
of the separatist movement by the superpower.
她說該國正在承受俄國刻意主導的分離主義之「策略性發酵」。
However, he warned that taking on Russia at a time when Medvedev was keen to
establish his influence carried significant risk.
但他也警告，當Medvedev政治力於建立他的影響力時的任何挑釁含有極大風險。
Russia could not afford to stand quietly by while Georgia made such a public
assault on its troops stationed in the region, he said.
俄國不可能冷冷站著看喬治亞這麼大張旗鼓地攻擊一個有俄國部隊駐守的區域，他說。
"There is an element of trying to call the Russians' bluff by assuming that
the Russians will not be able to afford all-out war in Georgia," he added.
「喬治亞有認定俄國沒有能力對喬治亞進行全面戰爭，所以要逼俄國攤牌的味道，」
他提到。
"I personally don't buy that … Putin cannot afford to be seen to be
humiliated in such a brazen, public way. It's inconceivable that the Russians
will sit quietly by.
「這我個人是完全不能苟同的...普丁不可能讓自己被這麼無恥且公開的手段羞辱的。
俄國人不可能安安靜靜作在那。」
"The only possible outcome is that either a ceasefire is negotiated and a
mediation effort begins, or it goes out into an all-out war."
最可能的發展，要不就是談出個停火協議然後仲裁調停工作開始，不然就是全面戰爭。」
Eyal said he believed Georgia's move to strike South Ossetia would generate a
mixed reaction from world powers.
Eyal說他相信喬治亞要攻擊南奧賽提的動作為在世界各國產生不同的反應。
He described a feeling that the country was "more sinned against than
sinning" but that there was also significant frustration over the actions of
its president.
他形容喬治亞「被侵犯多於侵犯」，但對於其總統的行動也多感失望。
"If it goes into an all out war, the predicament for the west is acute and
the crisis would be the worst crisis in Europe since the end of communism.
如果事件演變成全面戰爭，西方的困境會很嚴重，且這危機會是歐洲自共產主義終結
後最嚴重的危機。
"It would be much worse than the Yugoslav wars, mainly because it has the old
traditional element of an east-west confrontation.
這會比南斯拉夫戰爭還嚴重，因為其中含有東西衝突的老梗。
"There is considerable sympathy for Georgia among western governments such as
the US and London. It is clear that the Russians have fermented the
separatist movement for a particular strategic purpose.
西方政府如美國和倫敦對於喬治亞的處境多有同情。明顯地，俄國為了戰略目的扶植了
分離運動。
"There is also, however, an enormous amount of frustration with the reckless
behaviour of the Georgian president at this moment."
但西方政府對於喬治亞總統莽撞的行徑也多感失望。」
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/aug/08/russia.georgia1
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