作者pursuistmi (common people)
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標題[編譯] Russia is asking for trouble in Georgia
時間Sun Aug 10 00:41:44 2008
Russia is asking for trouble in Georgia
Published: August 8 2008 18:47 | Last updated: August 8 2008 18:47
Mighty Russia, population 150m, and tiny Georgia, population 4.6m, its former
colony and now fiercely independent neighbour, are in terrible danger of
blundering into a bloody and pointless conflict in the Caucasus. It would
sorely damage relations between Moscow, the European Union and the US. It
could also destabilise the rest of the Caucasus region. Washington and
Brussels can urge restraint, but the only country that can stop the nonsense
is Russia itself.
強大的俄羅斯，人口一億五千萬；以及微小的喬治亞，人口四百六十萬，前俄羅斯
附庸，現在是俄羅斯獨立而強硬的鄰邦。兩方現在驚險地面臨陷入血腥而無意義的
高加索衝突之中。這會讓莫斯科、歐盟、以及美國之間的關係受到嚴重影響。這次
衝突也可能使高加索地區陷入極度不穩定。華盛頓與布魯塞爾可以呼籲雙方節制，
但能夠阻止這個鬧劇的就是俄羅斯這一個國家。
The immediate cause of the conflict is a tug-of-war over the secessionist
region of South Ossetia, which has been trying to break away from Georgia
since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. It is an ethnic patchwork of
mountain villages, part-Ossetian and part-Georgian, with just 70,000
inhabitants, divided between pro-Russian and pro-Georgian administrations,
and lacking any common identity.
衝突的直接原因是雙方再在爭奪南奧賽梯這個自1991年蘇聯瓦解後開始就渴望自
喬治亞獨立出來的區域。這個區域是個由種族繁雜的山嶺聚落組成，一部份是奧賽梯人
另一部份喬治亞人，總共大概7000人左右，並被傾俄國以及傾喬治亞兩種政府統治，
並且缺乏任何共同認同感。
A fragile ceasefire since 1992 has been regularly broken. This week it
collapsed again, after a series of bloody skirmishes, with Georgian troops
moving in to seize the capital, Tskhinvali, and a column of tanks and troops
moving over the Russian border to stop them. Russian aircraft have attacked
targets inside the undisputed territory of Georgia, including a radar
installation. Both Vladimir Putin, the Russian premier, and Mikheil
Saakashvili, the Georgian president, have called the confrontation “war”.
1992年以來脆弱的停火協議不時就會被破壞。這個禮拜停火協議又被罔顧了：在一系列
的血腥交豐厚，喬治亞部隊擬佔領南奧賽梯首都Tskhinvali，又有坦克戰鬥群從俄國邊境
開拔要阻止他們。俄國戰機在喬治亞境內的爭議區域進行轟炸任務，其中包括雷達設施。
俄羅斯總理普丁以及喬治亞總統Saakashvili都稱呼此次衝突為「戰爭」。
Russia has long ceased to pretend to be a neutral referee. It openly espouses
the cause of the secessionists there and in Abkhazia, another breakaway
enclave. Its actions seem aimed at deliberately destabilising its neighbour.
In recent months – especially since Georgia was promised eventual membership
of Nato at the alliance’s Bucharest summit in April – Moscow has stepped up
its encouragement, reinforcing its troops and trade, as if deliberately
taunting Tbilisi and daring its hot-headed president to respond. Now the
inevitable has happened.
俄國老早就不假裝他是中立的仲裁者了。俄國公開支持南奧賽梯的分離份子，同時也
支持另一個醞釀獨立的國中國Abkhazia。在最近幾個月──特別是自從喬治亞於四月
北約Bucharest高峰會後獲得北約承諾在未來容許成為會員國之後──莫斯科便加強
鼓動分離份子，配給他們部隊以及活絡商貿關係，似乎刻意挑戰Tbilisi並且逼迫
喬治亞一頭熱的總統做出回應。現在不可避免的事情發生了。
Mr Saakashvili does not want to take on Moscow. But Mr Putin (and Dmitry
Medvedev, his anointed successor) seem to want to prove two things: that
Georgia is far too unstable to join Nato, and that they alone can determine
the future of the former Soviet space. They are right that neither the US
alone, nor the Nato allies, would dream of intervening in a military
confrontation. But Georgia is only unstable because of Russian policies.
Encouraging secessionists sends a terrible signal to others inside Russia,
especially in the rebellious north Caucasus. Moscow’s policy may be macho,
but in the long run it will be utterly self-defeating.
Saakashvili不會想要挑戰莫斯科的。但普丁（以及他加冕的Medvedev）看來似乎要
證明兩件事情：第一，喬治亞的不穩定性不適合加入北約，同時俄國自己才可以決定
前蘇聯各附庸的前途。俄國是正確的：美國和北約都不可能想要介入武力衝突事件。
但喬治亞會如此不穩定就是因為俄國的政策。鼓動分離份子是在對俄國境內的其他
團體暗示一種非常糟糕的訊息，特別是蠢蠢欲動的北高加索地區。莫斯科的政策可能
非常粗勇，但長期來說會是自己的絆腳石。
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/830edc3a-656d-11dd-a352-0000779fd18c.html
煩請注意附上原稿來源
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