China ousts US as top Japanese market
Mainland China overtook the US as Japan’s largest export destination for the
first time last month, underlining the growing importance of Chinese
demand to the world’s second-largest economy.
中國在上個月第一次取代了美國成為日本最大出口國，顯示出中國的內需已經達到了世界
第二的程度了。
Exports to China, which have risen in each of the last 38 months, expanded by
16.8 per cent in July to their highest level since the Japanese
government began compiling statistics in 1950.
日本對大陸的出口在過去的38個月持續成長，在七月達到了16.8%，成為了1950年後經濟
開放的最高峰。
At the same time, exports to the US declined by 11.5 per cent, marking the
11th consecutive monthly drop. Overall, shipments rose by 8.1 per cent by
value, after falling in June for the first time since 2003, the finance
ministry said.
同時，日本對美國出口連續十一個月下滑，在六月更短少了11.5%。不過裝運部份成長了
8.1%，是2003年以來第一次正成長。
Japanese companies such as Toyota, Honda Motor and Komatsu have recently
identified an increasing reliance on China and other emerging markets
for sales growth as the US economy slows. Honda last month announced
double-digit increases in the volume of China sales in the three months to
June, compared with a 5 per cent fall in the US.
日本公司像是Toyota, 本田, Komatsu 最近也都增加對中國和其他開發中國家的出口依賴
，以填補美國經濟成長緩慢的缺口。本田上個月表示在美國成長減少了5%的同時，中
國有兩位數的成長。
However, the export growth will provide little cheer to policymakers, faced
with rising input costs and an uncertain outlook in the economies of Japan’s
main trading partners.
但是出口的成長只有帶給執政者一點安慰。因為日本進口成本的成長和經濟的不確定性嚴
格的考驗著日本。
Japan’s July trade surplus suffered an unexpectedly large decline of 86.6
per cent to Y91.1bn ($829m, €562m, ￡445m) because of an 18.2 per cent
surge in imports by value. The market forecast was for a trade surplus in
July of more than Y200bn.
日本七月的貿易剩餘大大短少了86.6% (八億兩千萬美金)，因為貨物價值提高了18.2%。
日本原本預測的貿易剩餘是兩千億日圓。
The fall, the fifth monthly decline in a row, reflected a near 70 per cent
rise in the price of crude oil and a more than doubling of the price of coal.
短少的貿易剩餘造成了原油價格上漲了70%和兩倍價格以上的煤炭
Many analysts expect exports to fall again in coming months as the slowdown
in western economies begins to have an impact on demand in emerging
economies such as China.
許多專家預測出口會因為西方的不景氣，進而影響中國和其他國家，造成出口下跌。
“It is difficult to believe that Japan will be able to maintain the kind of
growth in exports that it saw in July. I think there is a higher chance of a
slowdown,” said Kyohei Morita, chief economist at Barclays Capital in Tokyo.
Kyohei Morita表示＂很難相信日本可以維持像七月這麼高的成長率，我認為有很大的經
濟冷卻情形發生＂
Given China’s growing dependence on the EU as an export destination, Chinese
growth was likely to decelerate, leading in turn to a slowdown in
Japanese exports to China, Mr Morita said.
Morita表示＂歐洲精融體系是中國的重要出口國，在中國的經濟踩煞車之後，連帶的會影
響到日本的出口＂
Royal Bank of Scotland said demand from Asia would probably continue to
support overall export levels, but “we no longer expect it to offset
completely the negative shock from the US”.
蘇格蘭的Royal Bank也表示雖然亞洲的成長可以撐住目前的局勢，不過並不期待可以抵消
美國傳出的負面震撼。
Commentators also said the strength of exports in July appeared to have been
a temporary reaction to a relatively sharp decline in the April to June
quarter.
時事評論也說今年四到六月這季的貿易萎縮間接造成七月的暫時性貿易成長。
The Bank of Japan pointed to the weakening prospects for exports earlier this
week when it lowered its assessment of economic prospects for the
second month in a row. It voted to keep interest rates at 0.5 per cent, the
lowest level among developed economies.
日本銀行在這週指出經濟前景將會滑落，並且投票希望利率能夠維持在已開發國家的0.5%
正常水平。
The Japanese government is expected to unveil an economic stimulus package
shortly, possibly as early as Friday.
日本政府希望能在短期內公佈經濟刺激計畫。
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