原文引自華盛頓郵報，網址：
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/02/06/
AR2009020603519_pf.html
S.E. Asia Faces Long-Term Trade Shift
Export-Dependent Nations Will See Less Demand From West, Analysts Say
By Tim Johnston
東南亞面臨長期貿易轉型
－－分析師認為西方國家需求將減少
Washington Post Foreign Service
Saturday, February 7, 2009; A10
BANGKOK -- Stimulus packages being put in place by many
export-dependent nations in Southeast Asia may not do enough to
protect those economies from the consequences of the fundamental
shift in trading patterns that underlies the current financial
crisis, analysts warn.
分析師警告，當前金融危機底下，貿易模式已出現本質上的轉變，許多依賴出口
貿易的東南亞國家推行的刺激景氣方案，仍不足以保護該國經濟。
The exporting nations have taken slightly different paths in
attempting to combat the global slowdown, but all their packages rest
on a similar assumption: that the world economy will pick up in the
third quarter, causing things to return to normal.
這些出口國採取不同方式企圖與全球經濟成長趨緩對抗，但是所有的方案都立基
在一個基本的假設上：全球經濟將於第三季恢復，一切因素將回歸正常。
Regional analysts say, however, that the present crisis is not just
another cyclical downturn but is instead a structural realignment and
that Southeast Asia's export economies need to act quickly to adjust
to a new reality in which American and European consumers will no
longer be the main market.
但是區域分析師表示，當前的危機不只是另一個景氣循環的底部，更是一場結構
性重整，而東南亞的出口經濟必須快速調整以適應美國與歐洲不再是全球主要市
場的事實。
"We are geared towards selling what the U.S. and Europe want, not
what Asians want. We need a readjustment," said Supavud Saicheua, the
managing director of Phatra Securities in Bangkok. "In the long term,
Asians have to consume more, and Europe and the U.S. have to consume
less."
位於曼谷的Phatra證券董事Supavud Saicheua說：「以往我們賣的都是美國與歐
洲要的產品，不是亞洲要的。現在我們需要重新調整。」「長期而言，亞洲人將
會消費更多產品，歐洲與美國將會減少。」
In a world dominated by born-again Keynesians, deficit-funded
stimulus packages are all the rage. In Southeast Asia, there have
been a variety of approaches: Vietnam has chosen to support industry,
Thailand is trying to mitigate the effects on the most vulnerable,
and Singapore has gone for a mixture of the two.
凱因斯主義重生且再度支配這個世界，超支的刺激景氣方案盛行。在東南亞有幾
個不同的政策途徑：越南選擇支持工業；泰國試圖減緩危機對最脆弱產業的影響，
而新加坡則兼取兩種方式。
Tai Hui, head of economic research for Southeast Asia at Standard
Chartered Bank in Singapore, said he believes that the packages will
work for the region's bigger economies but are likely to have limited
effects in smaller nations.
新加坡渣打銀行東南亞經濟研究部門主管Tai Hui表示，他相信刺激方案對於東
南亞較大的國家會有效果，但對較小的國家而言效果有限。
"It will work well for India and China, but for the smaller economies
like Hong Kong and Singapore, no matter how much you spend, it is not
going to compensate for the slowdown in Europe and the U.S.," Hui
said, adding that the packages "will at best break the fall."
「刺激方案在中國與印度將會產生效果，但較小的經濟體如香港與新加坡，無論
花多少錢，都不夠補足歐洲與美國的經濟趨緩。」他更進一步說：「充其量只能
減緩落下的速度。」
For the countries in the middle, the scale of the problems they face
appears to have blunted governmental ambitions. Korn Chatikavanij,
Thailand's new finance minister, said his $3.3 billion stimulus
package was designed to "stop the bleeding" until the global economy
picks up. His biggest fear, he said, is that the global economic
revival will not come soon enough.
至於居中的國家，它們面對的問題規模之宏大，也似乎打擊了政府的野心。泰國
新任財長Korn Chatikavanij表示，他所提出的33億刺激方案是要「止血」，直
到全球經濟復甦的到來，最怕的是全球經濟還沒這麼快復甦。
Some analysts have said that the packages raise two questions: What
effect will they have on domestic demand? And if they are effective,
will they save the region's export industries?
有些分析家認為刺激方案引出兩個問題：第一，方案對國內需求會帶來什麼影響？
以及第二，如果刺激方案有效，能夠保護東南亞地區的出口產業嗎？
Compared with the rest of the world, Asia has very high savings
rates, which are considered likely to rise, given the present mood of
uncertainty.
相較於世界其他地方，亞洲有非常高的儲蓄率，在目前瀰漫的不確定氣氛下，儲
蓄率可能還會再升高。
"Domestic demand was starting to come off even before you saw the
collapse of exports," said Prakriti Sofat, a Singapore-based
economist with HSBC.
新加坡匯豐銀行經濟學家Prakriti Sofat說：「在你看到出口瓦解前，國內
需求早已開始下降。」
The high savings rates mean that consumers will take at least some of
their country's stimulus money and squirrel it away, further limiting
the effects of packages that are in some cases fairly small, anyway.
高儲蓄率意味著消費者會把政府刺激景氣的錢至少藏一些些起來，這更限制了刺
激方案的效果，即使效果在某些案例中已經極小。
Many analysts contend that even if the stimulus packages manage to
reignite domestic demand, that demand is unlikely to be for the
narrow range of manufactured products that Southeast Asia's most
export-dependent economies have long produced in vast quantities,
such as Thailand's pickup trucks and hard drives, and Vietnam's
furniture and shoes.
許多分析家聲稱，就算這些方案設法重燃國內需求，這些需求也不可能全部發揮
在東南亞出口依賴經濟體長久以來所生產的狹小產品範圍裡，如泰國的小貨車與
硬碟、越南的傢俱與鞋子。
If the problem were merely a short-term one, export companies could
probably weather the storm with government help, but according to
Supavud, the Phatra Securities analyst, a long-term structural shift
in the global economy means that the demand profile for Asian exports
will never return to its pre-crisis form.
如果問題僅僅是短暫的，在政府支持下，外銷公司也許可以撐過這場風暴，但是
，根據Phatra證券分析師Supavud的說法，全球經濟長期結構性轉變的意含是，
對亞洲出口產品的需求量表不會再回到危機前的水平。
In Southeast Asia, the pain is likely to be spread unevenly.
At one end of the spectrum will be countries such as Indonesia, the
region's largest economy. Economists say it is better off than most,
thanks to its lower dependence on exports, particularly manufactured
products. Economic growth, which was about 6 percent last year, is
expected to slow to 4.5 percent this year. However, the country's
longer-term prospects are considered relatively healthy.
經濟危機帶來的創痛，可能正在東南亞以不同程度漫延開來。光譜的一端是東南
亞最大經濟體的印尼，經濟學者表示，較不依賴出口貿易（特別是加工產品）的
印尼在這次危機中會比大多數國家更有餘裕。印尼去年經濟成長率6％，雖然今
年預估將趨緩為4.5％，長期而言體質相對健康。
At the other end is Singapore, which has seen domestic exports shrink
and is already in recession.
光譜的另一端是新加坡，除了發生出口萎縮之外，經濟也已在衰退中。
But Hui, the Standard Chartered Bank economist, said that Singapore
may be showing the way forward. For some years it has been
deliberately strengthening its ties with major Asian markets: Since
2005, it has signed trade pacts with China, Japan and South Korea,
among others.
但是渣打銀行經濟學者Hui表示，新加坡也許正帶出新方向。自2005年以來，新
加坡從容地強化它與幾個主要亞洲市場的聯結，分別與中國、日本、韓國簽署貿
易協定。
While many regional businesses are currently concentrating on
survival, Hui warned, they need to look ahead, as well.
Hui警告，許多區域事務正專注在如何存活的課題上，但它們也同時需要把注意
力用於展望未來。
"The greater appeal to the Asian market and consumers will have to
come. If they are too concentrated on the U.S. and Europe, they are
going to miss out big-time," he said.
Hui說道：「未來將愈加訴諸於亞洲的市場與消費者，如果東南亞把注意力太過
集中在美國與歐洲，它們將會錯失絕佳契機。」
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