[外絮] NBA Draft Preview 2010: Jeremy Lin, G

[funkie (乾!!草泥馬)]

Yahoo文章找到的2010某位球探報告 認為J-Lin是當年僅次於John Wall排第2的PG
文中有跟NBA名將的數據比較 這部分請懂的人來解說一下吧

原文: http://hoopsanalyst.com/blog/?p=487

NBA Draft Preview 2010: Jeremy Lin, G Harvard
by Ed Weiland

Any team looking to find a starting PG in the 2010 NBA draft had best win
the lottery and get the top pick. A year after the legendary PG draft of
2009, the pickings for playmakers are going to be thin. That doesn’t mean
there won’t be a player or two who surprise the experts though.

The best candidate to pull off such a surprise might be Harvard’s Jeremy
Lin. The reason is two numbers Lin posted, 2-point FG pct and RSB40. Lin
was at .598 and 9.7. This is impressive on both counts. These numbers show
NBA athleticism better than any other, because a high score in both shows
dominance at the college level on both ends of the court. Here is a list
of recent college PGs who topped .540 and 9.0:


    Player     2 pt pct.  3 pt pct    P40     A40    A/TO     RSB40
Andre Miller    .600       .333      18.0     6.6     2.1     10.2
Penny Hardaway  .583       .332      24.4     6.8     1.9     13.0
Steve Francis   .580       .388      22.2     5.8     1.5      9.8
Gary Payton     .569       .333      27.3     8.6     2.2      9.1
Allen Iverson   .546       .366      30.5     5.7     1.2      9.3
Jason Kidd      .545       .362      19.0    10.3     2.1     11.8
Rajon Rondo     .540       .273      14.4     6.3     2.1     10.7
Greg Grant      .544       .485      26.3     6.3     1.7      9.4
Bobby Dixon     .548       .380      20.7     7.7     2.0      9.8
George Hill     .580       .450      24.0     4.8     1.5     10.0
Jeremy Lin      .598       .341      20.2     5.5     1.4      9.7


Bobby Dixon, you ask? He played at Troy from 2003-06. Dixon was listed at
5’10” and 160 his senior year and I’m guessing he was deemed too small.
He’s played in France and Italy going on his 4th year now and seems to be
getting plenty of PT. I don’t think I need to say too much to sell the
rest of the group.

But Lin put up his numbers in the Ivy League, while most of the players on
the list played in major conferences. This is a big deal. For players from
a small conference the jump to the NBA is a lot tougher. They don’t get
the exposure, unless their team makes the tournament. They need to be that
much better statistically to stand out. Lin made his mark in the preseason
when he averaged 23.3 PPG while shooting 63% in a 3-game stretch against
UConn, BC and Georgetown. Typically players from small colleges see their
numbers dip, sometimes drastically, when stepping up in competition. That
Lin was able to not only be competitive, but excel in these situations is
impressive. What I like to do with small college players is compare their
numbers to those of successful small college players from the past. Here’s
a list of college PGs who have successfully made the jump from small
conferences to the NBA and their senior year stats:

Player        2 pt pct.  3 pt pct    P40    A40    A/TO    RSB40
Terry Porter    .575        n/a     22.7    5.0     1.8      8.1
Dee Brown       .521       .375     21.3    5.7     1.8     11.3
Lindsey Hunter  .463       .341     31.5    4.0     1.2      7.6
Speedy Claxton  .500       .381     25.9    6.8     1.8     10.1
Antonio Daniels .576       .433     26.4    7.4     2.1      6.0
Derek Fisher    .430       .383     16.1    5.7     1.9      7.9
Anthony Johnson .536       .405     16.2    8.3     2.5      6.4
Jose Barea      .485       .291     25.1   10.0     1.8      6.8
Eric Maynor     .516       .361     25.5    7.0     2.1      8.2
George Hill     .580       .450     24.0    4.8     1.5     10.0
Jeremy Lin      .598       .341     20.4    5.5     1.4      9.8

This isn’t a wildly impressive group. Lin tops the group in 2-point pct,
scored over 20 P40 and brings the high RSB40. That’s all good and bodes
well for Lin’s NBA future. The bad news is he’s a decent, but not great
passer, making it questionable whether he can handle the point. His 1.4 A/TO
is the lowest total of this group with the exception of Hunter, who was more
of a combo guard anyway. His 5.5 A40 is also on the low side. I like PG
prospects to be over 6.0, but this isn’t completely necessary. There were
several good NBA PGs who posted an A40 lower than Lin’s 5.5, the best being
Sam Cassell and Mark Price. It is also important to point out that Terry
Porter, who is by far the most successful player on this list, posted a
lower A40 than Lin. So while it would be better for Lin to post a higher
frequency of assists, and points for that matter, they’re not so low that
I would dismiss his chances of playing PG at the next level.

With seniors who have been somewhat invisible until their final seasons, I
think it is a good idea to look at the entire college career. This gives us
an idea of whether the senior season is more of an aberration than a
progression.

Jeremy Lin   Minutes  2 pt pct.  3 pt pct    P40     A40    A/TO    RSB40
Freshman       506      .473       .281      9.9     3.6     1.0     7.5
Sophomore      940      .527       .279     16.0     4.6     1.5     9.4
Junior         975      .545       .400     20.4     4.9     1.1     9.8
Senior         933      .598       .341     20.2     5.5     1.4     9.7

Lin’s progression looks fairly normal. The .598 might be a tad high, but
even at the .545 he was at his junior year he’s still a pretty strong
prospect. He’s scored 20+ for consecutive seasons and has 3 seasons over 9.0
RSB40. He has shot 37% on threes the past couple of seasons, so he has shown
enough there. The important thing is his senior year doesn’t look fluky or
something that was the result of a hot streak.

I like Jeremy Lin as a PG prospect, but he isn’t without flaws and concerns.
He isn’t a great passer yet and he didn’t score as frequently as a prospect
from a small college should. Both numbers are in the grey area though.
They’re lower than I’d like them to be, but not low enough that I’d say
Jeremy Lin was doomed as a prospect. That being noted, he does bring that
combination of a high 2-point pct. and RSB40, which has been a very, very
good thing for aspiring NBA PGs to have on their college report card in past
years. This is a weak year for both PGs and combo guards. After John Wall
there are no sure things. Jeremy Lin might be the #2 PG available in this 
draft. He looks to me like a sleeper in the mold of George Hill. He appears
to have the skills to become at least a usable combo guard. If he can get
the passing thing down and handle the point, Jeremy Lin is a good enough
player to start in the NBA and possibly star.

Just a quick note here. I’m going to do the draft preview a little
differently this year. Rather than doing long posts covering all the players
at each position, I’m going to analyze similar players together. This will
mean more posts than usual, but they’ll be shorter. I thought Jeremy Lin
would be a good guy to start with, because he’s the one player I probably
differ on with the rest of the draft pundits by the biggest margin. Hopefully
this new way of doing things works well.

May 13, 2010 | In NBA Draft | 6 Comments

來源: http://hoopsanalyst.com/blog/?p=487

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※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 220.132.15.134
推 Hawking     :伯樂耶
推 joulin      :以前的新聞都被挖出來了
→ panjanhon   :被評為第2的PG 最後選秀沒選上 不知道這個作者現在怎
→ panjanhon   :麼了
→ joulin      :當初這位作者 一定被當作是北七 怎麼會把她排第二
→ joulin      :現在再來看看  罵他北七的人 可能才是北七XD
推 chucky      :先知
推 lulanjia    :這才叫先知阿!!!
推 DASHOCK     :客觀的球探真難得....
※ 編輯: funkie          來自: 220.132.15.134       (02/14 09:53)
推 aspired     :這個球探可以去大學教書了，預言學
推 iamaq18c    :先知球探阿~!!!!!!!
推 lonelysam   :還真的有先知
推 handsomecat :當初這球探的報告大概被忽視了
推 Amilous     :還要看看他其他球探報告 如果還有其他黑馬 那就神準
→ wurenben    :這球探當初也給Fields很高評價..先知
→ wurenben    :然後仔細看底下評論1,也是位先知
推 matter224   :客觀的球探真難得+1
推 DRUIDMOSHU  :這位球探，還是失算了.....應該排第一
推 AYANASAEKI  :你少亮了一段話  有點太斷章取義
→ AYANASAEKI  :If he can get the passing thing down and handle
→ AYANASAEKI  :the point, Jeremy Lin is a good enough player to
→ AYANASAEKI  :to start in the NBA and possibly star.
※ 編輯: funkie          來自: 220.132.15.134       (02/14 10:40)
→ AYANASAEKI  :這兩句才是完整的一句 If 是假設語氣  是條件
推 AYANASAEKI  :不過這球探真的是很有眼光  太強了
※ 編輯: funkie          來自: 220.132.15.134       (02/14 11:00)
推 kyle1101    :推
推 AquariusTACO:先知阿..
※ Paraguay:轉錄至看板 IVERSON                                     02/15 10:31
推 tsming      :先知XD
推 wadeawp     :先知...