[外絮] 湖人球探報告

[petlover (我家小狗小貓好可愛)]

轉錄自湖人球探rydjorker121在clublakers發的球探報告

應觀眾要求，我就貼全文了

原文連結：
http://www.clublakers.com/lakers-discussion/laker-scouting-reports-t115206-225.html

縮網址：http://bit.ly/1jodKS5

在那一頁的中間


Jeremy Lin:
Position: PG
Height: 6' 3”
Weight: 200
Age: 25
Contract: $14,898,938 ('14-'15), but due to Gilbert Arenas provision only
$8,374,646 would count against the Lakers' cap
Nickname: J-Lin
Years With Team: 0
Years With League: 3
Previous Teams: Golden State, New York, Houston
Acquired: July '14 trade with Houston Rockets (absorbed Jeremy's contract
along with 2015 Houston Rockets' 1st round pick)

Lin has a very diversified offense--he takes roughly a third of his shots
from three point range, mid-range and at the rim, so he's comfortable
utilizing the entire length of the court. That, above anything,
differentiates him from many of the lower-level point and combo guards in the
league. At his best, Lin is penetrating deep to the basket for layups,
drawing bushels of fouls, swishing spot-up and self-created mid-range shots,
and hitting the occasional three, providing a viable source of offense. He is
also playing good team defense and preventing teams from hitting money shots
(layups and threes). At his worst, Lin stops short of the basket, displaying
tunnel vision and missing open teammates as he flings up runners or takes
tough fadeaway shots, or starts turning the ball over incessantly. He would
also stop rebounding.

Lin's most unique asset is creating driving layups for himself: nearly 30% of
his shots are driving layups, a rate in the fifth of all point guards, and
he's also adept at utilizing reverse layups. It's also an excellent value
play for him, because at 59.8%, he's well into the top third in conversion
rate, and he does an excellent job of drawing fouls and finishing through
contact, with a foul-drawing rate of 0.38 (a top six mark for points, and in
line with what he's done career-wise). Another third of Lin's shots were from
mid-range, and he's also an excellent value play here, with an above average
percentage of 39.9%. Looking deeper, Lin in particular does well directly at
the rim (63.2%) and from long mid-rangers (42.4%), his two hot-spots. In
adapting to his hybrid guard role, Lin created his own shots at the rim
roughly a third of the time, while his long mid-rangers were off a mix of
assisted and self-created shots. Lin isn't great from long range, but posts
somewhat respectable percentages (35.8% this year, 34.3% career) and there's
definite hope given that he shoots a career 80.1% from the line on a large
sample size.

The problem with Lin is not really about what he is, but what he isn't: one
of the primary concerns is what position allows him to optimize his level of
play while simultaneously elevating the team play. So far, the numbers paint
his best position as shooting guard. If so, he lacks the next level
athleticism to compensate for his lack of height: while his dunk rate (0.6%)
is perfectly fine for a point guard, as a shooting guard that is a bottom
quarter rate. Despite a diversified offense, Lin also lacks the next-level
offensive skills: he is a face-up driver and does not utilize his sturdy
frame for post-ups, having attempted zero hook shots this past year. He's
also not effective in the wonky shots: his points per play on runners,
pull-up jumpers and in particular fadeaway and turnaround type shots are
quite poor. Lin takes nearly a fifth of his shots in the in-between zones
(4-15 feet), but only shoots 33.3% on runners and an abysmal 31.9% from
no-man's land.

The other issue is that Lin is not a pure point guard by any stretch: in
adapting to the Rockets' depth this past season, he took on a fairly mediocre
usage rate. Despite that, his assist rate was bottom third among point guards
this past season, and to add insult to injury, he had the fourth worst
turnover rate. He had the worst combination of turnover rate and assist rate
among points, for players who played over twenty minutes per game.

As a result, Jeremy's offense was less than the sum of its parts this
season--adjusted by position, real-plus minus puts him a subpar 231st in
offensive effectiveness (out of 430 NBA players), which jibes with 82games'
assessment that the Rockets' offense was three points worse with him on the
court. Looking deeper, Jeremy played nearly two-thirds of his minutes as
point guard, but really struggled to generate offense at that position. While
his scoring rate was nearly four points less, his efficiency was nearly six
percent worse, and even at point guard his assist rate and turnover rates
were noticeably worse. Not surprisingly, Jeremy operates better as the
de-facto shooting guard in a team's five-man configurations, as he is not a
true point.

Overall, on offense, Lin has a very interesting set of skills, as his ability
to pair his constant finishing and foul drawing ability with a good mid-range
jumper and foul shooting is appealing, on top of a diversified offense with
respectable three point shooting. He has an excellent scoring base coming off
the highest true shooting percentage of his career, and excellent guard
penetration is something that is arguably harder to find than a guard who can
shoot, so there is that level of appeal to his game.

At only age 25, there's also that allure of what he did in the past, and
whether he can recapture it: in Houston, he was operating under a clogged
offense with alpha males who demand the ball like James Harden and Dwight
Howard in Houston. He didn't fit that style, because he wasn't a spot-up type
or floor spacer, and at times he operates the same at-rim real estate as
those two, which was why he had a net negative offensive rating. While he
certainly did not play like a point guard whatsoever the past year, there is
evidence favoring that with a higher usage rate. During that 35-game stretch
of Linsanity in New York, Lin carried a top-four usage rate, which resulted
in a top ten assist rate. He also sported a positive offensive rating, the
only time he's ever sported a positive rating here in the NBA. Granted, the
sample space is smaller and he was playing uninhibited in former Laker coach
Mike D'Antoni's offense, but there there appears to be a direct higher usage
to higher efficiency and assist rate correlation with him. Lin needs an open
floor, essentially, to tap into what was previously decent to good point
guard ability. There is a possibility that he can combine a high usage
scoring-passing combination, but it appears in particular a high usage is
necessary for Lin to actually make a positive impact on the team's offense.
At the very least, he's a very good bench scorer if he cannot hone in the
passing to its prior levels. He could certainly also work on refining his
ability to hit more complicated shots in the no-man's zones, as well as
further improving his long ball and cutting down his turnovers.

On defense, Lin actually rates very well. After adjusting by position, Lin
was 77th out of 430 NBA players by defensive RPM the past year, a very good
mark; 82games also agrees with this idea, with the Rockets being nearly three
points defensively with Lin on the court. nbawowy also agrees, with the
Rockets being 0.01 points per possession better defensively with Lin on the
court. Lin-based lineups defended layups better by nearly three percent,
while defending threes better by 0.6%. These markers are not a fluke, given
that Lin also played good team defense during the time of Linsanity. Lin is
also an excellent shotblocker by position (7th out of 63 point guards),
continuing excellent rates that were seen in college and illustrating his
savvy in leveraging his height to make up for lack of length. Still, Lin's
imposed-athletic markers really, really tailed off this past season, with a
defensive rebound rate in the bottom fifth of all NBA point guards. Lin put
up excellent rebounding numbers in college and had put up a top 15 rebound
rate in New York. After years of top-notch thievery in college and in his
first three years in the league, Lin was also in the bottom third in steal
rate this past year, but this might normalize back to its past levels, and
considering the very good defense he might have played more contain-level
defense the past year.

Lin was better defending point guards than shooting guards, holding down
their scoring rate by nearly five points while reducing the efficiency by
nearly ten percent, and in general he allows opposing guards to score. The
ideal scenario to prevent crossmatching, and optimizing Lin, would create an
offense centralized around him to allow him to play point guard at a
reasonable level, so he can defend point guards well while being a positive
on the team's offense. Lin appears to really, really elevate his game on all
facets when he has the ball in his hands, and this even extends to rebounding
and stealing the ball. A Lin at past year's level would require
crossmatching--a SG offensively, and a PG defensively.

Overall, Lin is a very useful player--while he's definitely overpaid at $15
million this year due to the poison pill contract the Rockets gave him, there
is at least some rationale for giving him a large amount of money in the
first place. He's still only age 25, and he is a two-way player who might
have been suppressed somewhat in Houston's alpha-male offense the past year.
His offensive skill at the point guard--ability to draw fouls at will and
finish--is a unique trait, and coupled with a very good mid-range shot, an
improving long ball and possible point skills with a larger usage, there is a
ton to like here. He also couples that with good defensive ratings on top of
a precedence for thievery, defensive rebounding and shotblocking, with good
size for the point. He is also a good locker room presence, a true
professional, and a marketing magnet, especially in Los Angeles where there
is a sizeable Asian population. Lin has a real penchant for turnovers and can
stand to improve his in-between shots, both of which are real sources of
frustration, but few players even have a diversified offensive game in their
arsenal, and he's taking those shots in an attempt to grow into them. At the
worst, he's putting up very good scoring and defending off-the-bench value,
but he might be more than that as a rock-solid starter if he rediscovers the
passing ability.

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 219.86.135.106
※ 文章網址: http://www.ptt.cc/bbs/Jeremy_Lin/M.1405236027.A.C62.html
→ BadGame     :這一篇還帶圖更動感 http://tinyurl.com/pl5usn6
推 kerotamama  :clublakers是國外主要的湖迷討論區嗎?
→ Miralles    :國外主要的討論區http://www.lakersnation.com/
推 hutten      :這球探還不錯嘛 林GOGOGO
推 kerotamama  :這應該每場比賽都有看吧 防守部分和主流評價差好多XD
推 spark05     :還有一個重點，我也覺得林可以多利用他的身材優勢打
→ spark05     :一些低位
推 spark05     :我記得連大夢都有稱讚過林的腳步，說他想看到林打低
→ spark05     :位
推 nancyh      :推中肯不被洗腦的球探報告!
推 mamimi      :球探報告寫林的防守非常好! 火箭還敢說林防守不好==
推 eileen86    :建議將球探報告貼過來~方便板主m起來~~~~
推 lsforever   :還好沒被莫再提球團洗腦
推 hutten      :真的 這樣可以期待湖人"合理"的安排林的定位
推 wuling1001  :都願意換了應該不會再像火坑那樣坑他了吧
※ 編輯: petlover (219.86.135.106), 07/13/2014 17:08:32
※ 編輯: petlover (219.86.135.106), 07/13/2014 17:14:37
推 tsubasa6405 :起碼clublakers裡面有很多人知道林是專業領麻繩的
→ tsubasa6405 :然後常常不關他的事還是被抓出來鞭
※ 編輯: petlover (219.86.135.106), 07/13/2014 17:19:36
推 wylscott    :林上季守幾位明星PG明明就守得很棒 是高層一直塑造出
→ wylscott    :林的防守不如PB的假象 誰都看得出來
推 turbomons   :打火箭球團臉的報告
推 patrickleeee:這就是火箭一輪遊的重點 根本球探看錯地方XDDD
→ BadGame     :其實莫雷7月2日還3日 訪問 有承認林的防守比想像要好
推 claire612   :打臉報告
推 peggie      :還好湖人找的球探視力正常，就這麼一路平反到底吧！
推 Landius     :7/2莫胖有講,但之後就P球衣了...
推 focoket12   :可見莫雷防守都在想像
推 ooyy5566    :lin是因為附帶技能：使巨頭星度下降-10 球隊老大不爽
→ ooyy5566    :講了lin實話 那鬍子紙紮的防守怎麼辦？只好黑lin了
推 bhmok       :可見GM沒上ptt 不會用我鬍是不想守不是不會守這招
推 wayland     :不過他不認為組織效率差完全係因被alpha-males壓抑
→ wayland     :看來LIN的首要工作是證明自己能被當作PG的傳球效率
推 qazxswptt   :LIN的防守不敢說頂級 也算是高級了 只有火箭會亂嫌
推 cth0204     :林防守這麼拼也不差 只有冰箱那群跟CF
→ cth0204     :嫌的要死   真的爛透了