[外電] NBA Draft Lottery Preview - Sac

[Sweeptime (有讓你感動的事嗎)]

NBA Draft Lottery Preview - SACRAMENTO
Andrew Nicholson, Kings.com

Team needs: If there ever was a year to miss the playoffs and end up with a
lottery pick, this would be that year. This draft is rich with talent,
whether a team picks first or 30th. The Kings have a 84.62 percent chance of
drafting 10th in the draft. While a higher pick would be awesome, the 10th
pick could aid the Kings’ needs tremendously. This draft and more
specifically, the lottery, is stacked with height, which is something the
Kings will probably hope to acquire on June 28. Seven out of the top 15
prospects, according to their vitals on ESPN.com, are 6-foot-10 or taller.
The Kings ranked 30th in rebounding and 28nd in blocked shots in 2006-07.
They would certainly love to get better in the paint. At the same time, the
Kings field goal percentage ranked 21st in the league and their dime dropping 
ranked 22nd. If the Kings found themselves with a chance to pick a top rate
playmaking point guard, they could very well go in that direction as well.

內容大致是說  假使可以損失一年的季後賽資格  換得樂透權(為了以後更長遠的路)

那無疑就是這一季了

國王的選秀有 84.62% 會座落在第 10 順位(不好意思  國王銅板擲輸山貓和尼克...Orz)

但本季選秀長人資源豐富  據 ESPN 預測在前 15 順位中有 7個是 6呎10吋以上的大個

ESPN Insider               
1.   Greg Oden        7-0     1.80%
2.   Kevin Durant     6-9*    2.12%
3.   Al Horford       6-10    ----%
4.   Corey Brewer     6-9*        X
5.   Yi Jianlian      6-11*       X
6.   Julian Wright    6-8         X
7.   Brandan Wright   6-9*        X
8.   Joakim Noah      6-11        X
9.   Spencer Hawes    7-0         X
10.  Roy Hibbert      7-2    84.62%
11.  Mike Conley Jr.  6-1*
12.  Jeff Green       6-9*
13.  Al Thornton      6-7
14.  Acie Law         6-3
(註：身高是引用 NBA.com的資料  但 *號部分和 ESPN 網站列舉的有些微不同)

因此  只有有機會選到一個大個子  對於國王敬陪末座的"油漆區事業"一定大有幫助
(06-07 年籃板排名最後、火鍋排名倒數第三....)

另外國王命中率和助攻都已經掉到後段班了(20名以後....)

所以  如果有機會撈到本次選秀首席控球後衛  國王應該也不會有所猶豫吧！！
(Mike Conley Jr. 就是你了！！  第一年就和 Oden 進入總決賽  A/T 比 2.77 ！)

If the Kings finish in the top three of the lottery… While top three is
nice, it seems that having a top two selection is where every team hopes to
land. The Kings chance of winning the lottery is 1.8 percent, while getting
the second pick is slightly higher at 2.12 percent. Considering the Kings
lost the lottery tiebreaker with New York and Charlotte earlier this year and
have only won the lottery once (1989, Pervis Ellison) in Sacramento, the city
would be electric if lady luck smiled upon the Kings. Both Greg Oden and
Kevin Durant could make an instant impact on the Kings. Oden would help by
blocking shots and causing havoc in the paint, while Durant could bring the
athleticism and inside-outside combination that made the Kings so potent for
years. It’s safe to say if the Kings land a top two pick, ARCO Arena would
make any other NBA arena sound like a library in 2007-08.

這一段在說國王  某種程度還蠻缺乏運氣的

國王上一次抽中狀元籤是 1989 年的事了  選了 Pervis Ellison , C , 6-10

生涯平均 9.5分 6.7籃板 1.5助攻  而在 1991 年則拿到探花(選了 Billy Owens)

自從 Geoff Petrie 上任以來(1995)  國王最好的選秀位置是第 7順位

當年選了一個叫做 Jason Williams 的古怪傢伙  :p

如果..  國王真的有機會拿到前三..恩  或說前二順位

不管是一柱擎天的 Oden 還是  能裡能外的 Durant

明年的主場 ARCO Arena 準會讓其他球場  彷若圖書館一樣  鴉雀無聲
(這是說又回到從前那種超高分貝人聲鼎沸的模樣嗎  看今年勇士季後賽主場..有點懷念)

Lottery luck: While the Kings have become known for retooling their rosters
with trades and proven free agents (Chris Webber, Mike Bibby, Ron Artest),
the solid play from the Kings youth in the last six games, coupled with Kevin
Martin’s breakout season, show that the Kings should also be known for
selecting quality players in the NBA Draft each year despite a typical mid to
late pick in the first round. Barring a trade, the Kings now have a lottery
pick for the first time since they drafted Jason “J-Will” Williams with the
seventh pick in the 1998 Draft. In fact, in the past 15 years, the Kings have
drafted in the single digits of the NBA Draft Lottery only four times
(including the aforementioned J-Will). The other three picks were Walt
Williams in 1992 and Bobby Hurley in 1993, both of whom were seventh overall
selections. Brian Grant was selected with the eighth pick in 1994.

基於 Petrie 當上總管  基本上國王的順位都沒能太前面

尤其是老艾開始執教後(據說要去火箭！！)  選秀順位更是一再往後倒退

所以 Petrie 的總管執行能力  一直被人 focus在交易球員的面向上

可是  看看今年的 Martin 和已離隊的 Peja

事實上國王也成功的選出  並培養能幫助球隊的球員
(當然也有養好送人的 Hedo 和  沒養出來但現在打得哇哇叫的 G蛙  ^^a)

所以其實整個團隊的選秀能力還不差

最後  稍微回顧歷年選秀史  恩..我在這個板也曾 po 過類似的  有興趣者請自行查閱

順便附上 NBA.com整理的 mock draft

NBA.com            
1.  Greg Oden
2.  Kevin Durant
3.  Brandan Wright
4.  Al Horford
5.  Joakim Noah
6.  Yi Jianlian
7.  Corey Brewer
8.  Mike Conley Jr.
9.  Roy Hibbert
10. Julian Wright
11. Jeff Green
12. Spencer Hawes
13. Acie Law
14. Al Thornton

DraftExpress           ESPN Insider           Inside Hoops       
1.  Greg Oden          1.  Greg Oden          1.  Greg Oden
2.  Kevin Durant       2.  Kevin Durant       2.  Kevin Durant
3.  Brandan Wright     3.  Al Horford         3.  Brandan Wright
4.  Al Horford         4.  Corey Brewer       4.  Al Horford
5.  Roy Hibbert        5.  Yi Jianlian        5.  Joakim Noah
6.  Joakim Noah        6.  Julian Wright      6.  Mike Conley Jr.
7.  Corey Brewer       7.  Brandan Wright     7.  Roy Hibbert
8.  Julian Wright      8.  Joakim Noah        8.  Jeff Green
9.  Yi Jianlian        9.  Spencer Hawes      9.  Acie Law
10. Mike Conley Jr.    10. Roy Hibbert        10. Yi Jianlian
11. Spencer Hawes      11. Mike Conley Jr.    11. Corey Brewer
12. Acie Law           12. Jeff Green         12. Spencer Hawes
13. Al Thornton        13. Al Thornton        13. Julian Wright
14. Jeff Green         14. Acie Law           14. Al Thornton

ProBasketballNews      CollegeHoops.net       RealGM             
1.  Greg Oden          1.  Kevin Durant       1.  Greg Oden
2.  Kevin Durant       2.  Greg Oden          2.  Kevin Durant
3.  Al Horford         3.  Brandan Wright     3.  Brandan Wright
4.  Joakim Noah        4.  Al Horford         4.  Mike Conley Jr.
5.  Brandan Wright     5.  Julian Wright      5.  Corey Brewer
6.  Yi Jianlian        6.  Yi Jianlian        6.  Al Horford
7.  Mike Conley Jr.    7.  Joakim Noah        7.  Jeff Green
8.  Julian Wright      8.  Jeff Green         8.  Yi Jianlian
9.  Corey Brewer       9.  Roy Hibbert        9.  Roy Hibbert
10. Jeff Green         10. Spencer Hawes      10. Joakim Noah
11. Roy Hibbert        11. Mike Conley Jr.    11. Spencer Hawes
12. Acie Law           12. Corey Brewer       12. Al Thornton
13. Spencer Hawes      13. Al Thornton        13. Thaddeus Young
14. Thaddeus Young     14. Rudy Fernandez     14. Acie Law

參考資料：
http://www.nba.com/news/ties_broken_draft_070420.html
(07年選秀詳細  及其  規則)

抽中狀元籤的機率： 1.80% (18/1000)

抽中榜眼籤的機率： 2.12%

    彩球數  抽中狀元   國王      事件     單一
            剩下球數  榜眼率    發生率   結果率
1    250      750     0.0240    0.2500   0.0060
2    199      801     0.0225    0.1990   0.0045
3    156      844     0.0213    0.1560   0.0033
4    119      881     0.0204    0.1190   0.0024
5     88      912     0.0197    0.0880   0.0017
6     53      947     0.0190    0.0530   0.0010
7     53      947     0.0190    0.0530   0.0010
8     19      981     0.0183    0.0190   0.0003
9     19      981     0.0183    0.0190   0.0003
10    18      ---     ------    ------   ------
11     8      992     0.0181    0.0080   0.0001
12     7      993     0.0181    0.0070   0.0001
13     6      994     0.0181    0.0060   0.0001
14     5      995     0.0181    0.0050  +0.0001
-----------------------------------------------
                                         0.0212  總 - 國王榜眼結果率

抽中探花籤的機率：有點麻煩  請各位自個算  XD

最後  國王本次選秀順位只有以下幾種可能  前三順位  或  10到13之間
                                        (用抽的)      (剩下照戰績反排)

http://www.nba.com/features/draft2007_consensus.html
(07年選秀預測)

http://www.nba.com/news/team_lottery_preview.html
(07年選秀樂透區球隊預覽)

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/draft2007/index
(07年ESPN選秀網頁 - 包含各球隊歷年選秀狀況)

最後  最後

恩  我覺得  國王如果沒辦法搶到很好的長人

有機會標中本次選秀的第一控球後衛也不錯

畢竟選天分不選位置  後來證明都反應比較高的價值

但  這多少打了自己前幾年老是補 Combo Guard的動作一記重重耳光

....

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 61.217.212.156
推 z6301:請問抽籤是幾點開始抽呢??
推 ilovebibby:天佑國王!!
推 RonArtest93:明天上午八點
※ 編輯: Sweeptime       來自: 61.217.212.156       (05/22 23:18)
推 tc11:終於等到你文章了XDDDD
推 csad:如果選了Mike Conley Jr.是不是就該送走另一個Mike??
推 garychgg:推啊
→ garychgg:另外我不懂選了A就要送走B的理論 誰來解釋一下  :P
推 airer:好刺激喔
推 luken:樓樓上  我也是用猜的  因為位置類似  原先的人會有不被
→ luken:重用的感覺  或許會加倍努力表現  但通常是變差吧
→ luken:既然如此  所以不如送走  而且BB本季表現實在是..有目共睹..
推 luken:第十   如預期....
推 wutaiching:第十順位  真準啊
推 icetornado:我覺的Bibby的表現 應該會起死回生 戰術問題 我想...