Great Kwame/Lakers analysis from a non Laker fan

[hbryant (期待晴天)]

Great Kwame/Lakers analysis from a non Laker fan
http://0rz.net/2a0HQ

在 LG 看到的...
By tsherkin, probably the most knowledgable member of the realgm

1.
For point of reference, even when Kwame isn't involved
in the offense he's a pretty strong man defender. When
he's even peripherally involved (as in getting 10 shots
a game or close to it), he's one of the best post defenders
in the league.

He used to be a really good shot blocker and has the length,
height and athleticism to do it (even the timing), but not
the confidence to leave his man.

Kwame needs touches to stay involved in the game, it's his
primary weakness. He needs to be the second or third option.
Make him that and he'll be exactly what you talked about
with the picks, the rebounding, the defensive effort, all of it.

The way the Lakers should run is Odom in the Pippen role
with a lesser offensive load, Kwame as the guy the Lakers
dump it into everytime up the floor (hold on) and Kobe as
the primary offensive option.

You look at that sentence and go, but Kwame gets it first...
and that's true but Kwame's a willing and talented passer
and the purpose of dumping it into him is to draw the defense
to him (he was drawing double-teams in '03-'04 when he was
getting the ball regularly) so he can swing it to Kobe and
make Bryant's life easier. Bryant will clearly be the number
one man but Kwame can make Kobe's job easier by getting the
ball, drawing the D and kicking it to the weakside, kind of
like they used to do with Shaq only with Kwame needing it
less after the initial post-entry pass (like they don't have
to repost it every third pass, just on the first one and then
later in the shot clock if they want to shake up the D again).

This way, Kobe can free himself up Reggie/Rip-style and get
lots of open mid-range Js and 3s so he doesn't have to kill
himself driving so hard into triple-coverage every play. Then
when he DOES pick a spot to drive, the lanes will be more
open and it'll be easier for him to finish. He'll also be
MORE likely to draw a foul with the defense scrambling to
recover as opposed to set and ready.

If the Lakers play like that, they'll surprise a lot of people.


2.
Well it only makes sense, right?

Kobe wants to win and be the man... This is certainly a way
he can do that.

Odom's strength is ball-handling and slashing, Kobe's strength
is playing off the ball and picking spots for isos when someone
else has a little defensive draw. Easier time on offense for Kobe
means more energy for defense and fourth quarter heroics.

If Kwame pans out, and as much as I do hope it happens it is
still a question mark, then we'll see Kobe play more like he
did in '00 and '01 and he'll be the happier for it because the
Lakers will be in the playoffs again.

Realistically, if Kwame "breaks out" in Phil's system, I expect
it to breakdown like this:

He'll probably get around 12-15 shots a game and if he's scoring
in the post he'll probably get about 5 or 6 FTAs per game.

Given that he improves every year and his best year he shot around
50%, you can expect something like that from him this year. He's
been inconsistant from the foul line but 66-70% is not unreasonable.
Frankly, 75% isn't unreachable either but we're going with probable,
not ideal.

That means Kwame's going to be scoring in the neighborhood of 16-19
ppg ideally. I'd be satisfied with 14 ppg and him creating enough
space, drawing enough coverage to make Kobe's life easier while doing
all the other things like D'ing up and setting good screens. I don't
know what kind of effect Kareem Abdul-Jabbar will have on him but if
you start seeing Kwame lofting skyhooks and hitting them, it's over,
he's breaking out. If he can get the skyhook to be a regular part of
his arsenal the worst case scenario for Kwame is an effective post
scorer with good defense... that's every team's wet dream at this
moment with the exception of basically Miami and San Antonio. Even
if he doesn't turn into a franchise keystone player, 16+ ppg and 7+
rebounds per is worth a lot of money (see Zydrunas Ilgauskas).

Given that Kwame is about 7'1 or 7'2 in shoes (depending on the shoe;
he measured seven feet and a half inch in socks last year in Wizards'
training camp), that shot is going to be unblockable, all the moreso
when you consider his leaping ability. Even if he only ever learns to
use it effectively inside 15 feet and not out to 20 like Kareem, it's
a deadly weapon.

He's not an outstanding rebounder yet but again, he improves every
year. He's got excellent size and athleticism. You can count on him
for 7 rpg in 30 mpg at a minimum. That works out to around eight and
a half rebounds per 36 but I expect he'll be closer to 9 or 10 rpg
in his first year if all goes well.

His defense on the inside will radically change the game for the
Lakers. Even though he's not a shot blocker, he'll free up Chris
Mihm to be a more prolific swatter by locking down the area right
around the rim and allowing Mihm to roam.

So you're talking about a guy with the potential to be an All-Star
in his first year in L.A.

Now for the reality check: what's the WORST CASE scenario? The
absolute worst case for any player is injury and I sincerely hope
he avoids that. I joke about hoping Jamal Crawford and other such
players getting injured but am never serious.

The worst case for Kwame is this:

Kobe and the team ignore him, he's not featured on offense

7-10 ppg, 5-7 rpg with decent but inconsistant defense. Kwame
needs offensive involvement to keep his head in the game. Again,
it's his biggest flaw. Likely statline here would be those minimums.

The most likely scenario is this:

Everything goes well from the team perspective but Kwame just
doesn't have it in him to dominate right from the word "Go." He
might blow up later or this could be his production level for
the next 5-10 years.

Well, Kwame showed that if he's regularly featured in the offense,
he's at least a capable scorer, a competent rebounder and a good
defender. In 03-04, he was handed about 30 mpg and about 8 shots
per game and produced 11 ppg and better than 7 rpg. He also shot
over 68% from the foul line which, while not spectacular, isn't a
terrible place for a big man to start. And that was before a summer
filled with stationary shooting drills and free throw practice...

Realistically, he'll get at least 10 shots per in L.A. because they
don't have the other scorers to take the ball from him (Kobe will
take a max of 25 shots per and that's if he's being a greedy (bleep),
Odom won't take more than 15-20... who else is there?). It's likely
he'll score in the 12-14 ppg range and grab 7-8 rpg while providing
solid defensive effort, setting nasty screens and generally making
a nuisance of himself to the opposition.

A recap:

Best case, 19 and 10; Reasonable, 16 and 8, Worst case, 11 and 7.

In the worst case, he's a little overpaid but he's still a good
contributor.

In the most reasonable case, Kwame begins as a strong contributor.

Even though he's not a dominant offensive force, he's a capable
and efficient post scorer who's not a terrible liability at the
line. He can defend anyone in the league (he actually had some
limited success against Shaq because he's basically the best
combination of height, build, strength and athleticism aside from
the Diesel himself) at his positions (PF and C) and he's got the
tools to score at will on anyone. He'll have nights where he's
ho-hum and just doing enough to keep the opposing D from collapsing
on Kobe and nights where he'll bust out and look like a poor-man's
Wilt Chamberlain (as he did to Chris Webber and Jermaine O'neal in
03-04).

Even in the worst case scenario, the Lakers turn into a respectable
team.


In the best case, Kwame's turned himself into an All-Star caliber
player, a significant and consistant offensive threat, a strong
rebounder, an excellent defender and generally a very good second
star for Kobe to work alongside. Kwame doesn't care about being "
the Man," he's going to be content with proving everyone wrong
about him, and so there will be no Shaq/Kobe-style conflicts (I
rest blame on both of them, Kobe for needing to be the Man and
Shaq for being immature and not helping the situation at all).

In this best-case situation, Kwame's uncorking the skyhook,
he's got an array of post moves that he uses all the time, he
befuddles opposing centers with Amare-like face-up drives and
he stretches the D by hitting shots out to around 17 feet. He's
a sick second scorer and he's learning all kinds of things about
scoring and blocking shots from Kareem while also developing his
passing skills. An underrated (and statistically underrepresented)
aspect of his game is his passing.

Because the other bigs in Washington also had sub-par hands, the
no-lookers and shuffle passes Kwame tends to throw from the block
often turned into turnovers. He's a good passer with great vision
for a big and that's something that will go over well in L.A. He
LIKES to pass. Kareem will almost certainly develop this part of
his game as well (since as a big he averaged 3.6 apg on his career,
with 3 seasons at or above 5 apg and two others within 0.4 apg of
that mark).

Suddenly, Kwame's prime statline has the potential to look like
20+, 10+ and 3-5, with 1.5+ bpg and a steal and a bit as well.
Kinda intriguing, eh?

I wouldn't expect to see THAT out of him for at least two years
in the ideal situation but it's something to hope for in the
future, no?


3.
Washington was not an ideal situation for Kwame. Ironically
enough, without Hughes, it'd have been a perfect situation
for him but the fans had soured on him (especially after a
sketchy, Pippen-esque playoff event) and his teammates and
coaches didn't give him the chance he needed.

Kwame's best season was one in which Hughes and Arenas spent
long stretches on the injured roster and he played a great
deal of time with Steve Blake, a pass-first shooting guard.
If big men have a major flaw (other than the traditional FT
issue), it's that they rely on others to get the ball for them.
Traditional bigs are assisted on about 60% of their shots and
if they're not getting the ball enough, they're not set up well
enough to get a bucket.

If the man fights for post position and doesn't get it, how
long before he stops bothering to get position?

Anyway, this will be very interesting.

--

  My heart beats her waves at
  the shore of the world
  and writes upon it her signature
  in tears with the words,
  " I love thee. "

--
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