[轉錄] Kobe or LeBron king of crunch time?

[Paraguay (巴拉圭)]

※ [本文轉錄自 NBA 看板 #1D4yK4yM ]

作者: kart (=\) 看板: NBA
標題: [ESPN專欄] Kobe or LeBron king of crunch time?
時間: Fri Dec 24 05:54:10 2010


        每年到了這個時候類似的文章（kobe vs LBJ) 就會層出不窮
        所以就給板上也熱鬧熱鬧一下好了 XD

        原文 http://ppt.cc/1RUF


    Closer.

    Assassin.

    Cold-blooded killer.

    Over the past few seasons, these labels have become synonymous
    with Kobe Bryant, the NBA's preeminent king of clutch. Time and
    time again, we have witnessed Bryant's heroics at the end of
    games. The Lakers star had a league-leading six game winners in
    the final 10 seconds of games in 2009-10, with his flair for the
    dramatic seemingly becoming a weekly fixture.
        終結者。刺客。冷血殺手。。。
        過去幾季這些辭彙變成了kobe的代名詞，NBA倒數計時的時刻裡最厲害的
        王者。我們的確目睹了多次kobe的絕殺球。
        在去年球季裡kobe投進了六次絕殺球。讓人們感覺到好像每個禮拜都要
        來那麼一下一樣。

    Bryant is, by all accounts, the player you want to have the ball
    when the game is on the line.
        所以毫無疑問的當比賽處於最關鍵時刻的時候，kobe是你想把球放在
        他手中的球員。

    So why do the numbers say otherwise? Or, more to the point, why do
     they suggest LeBron James, not Bryant, has performed better in
    the clutch recently?
        但是當我們檢視數據的時候，我們發現，LBJ在比賽關鍵時刻打得
        比kobe好。為什麼會這樣呢？

    The hard data
        鐵證

    To be clear, no two people will have identical opinions of when a
    basketball game enters the proverbial game-on-the-line territory.
    But if we stick to the generally accepted criteria of clutch --
    thanks to the go-to crunch-time source 82games.com -- we draw the
    line at less than 5 minutes left in the fourth quarter or
    overtime, with the game within five points. Using those
    thresholds, we see some eye-catching facts: Despite Bryant's six
    game winners last season, James bested him in just about every
    statistical category down the stretch in clutch situations.
        當然沒有任何兩個人對何時是球賽的關鍵時刻有相同看法。
        不過感謝82games.com的整理，我們可以借用她們的定義：

        球賽最後五分鐘或是延長賽，而兩隊差距在5分以內的比賽。

        如果照這標準來看，我們馬上發現了一個驚人的事實：
        kobe除了投進那六次絕殺球，LBJ基本上在每個你能統計的數據上
        表現的都比kobe好。列表如下：

    KOBE VS. LEBRON IN CLUTCH
            Kobe    LeBron
    PER     37.6    47.2
    Pts/40  44.5    48.1
    FG%     43 pct. 45 pct.
    Reb/40  4.3    10.9
    Ast/40  4.3    5.6
    Steals  1.6    2.1
    Blocks    0    1.8
        （PER：球員效率值，Pts/40：每40分鐘得分，FG%：命中率，
        Reb/40：每40分鐘籃板，Ast/40：每40分鐘助攻，
        Steals：抄截，Blocks：火鍋）

    Here are the facts: James has posted a mind-boggling 47.2 Player
    Efficiency Rating while averaging 48.1 points on 45 percent
    shooting, 10.9 rebounds and 5.6 assists per 40 minutes in the
    clutch over the past two seasons. Bryant? He checks in at a 37.6
    PER, with an average of 44.5 points on 43 percent shooting, 4.3
    rebounds and 4.3 assists. Statistically, James outperformed Bryant
     on the defensive end as well, averaging 1.8 blocks and 2.1
    steals. Kobe, on the other hand, has averaged 1.6 steals with no
    blocks in crunch time.
        事實就是，LBJ在過去兩季關鍵時刻的PER是嚇死人的47.2，放大換算成40分鐘
        的表現就是48.1/10.9/5.6的非人表現。Kobe則有37.6的PER值，
        放大成40分鐘的表現會是44.5/4.3/4.3。
        而在防守端的數據上LBJ一樣是表現較好的一方，平均有1.8鍋和2.1抄截。
        Kobe則有1.6抄截，但是在關鍵時刻則敲不出一鍋。

    That's just an absurd level of production from both players, but
    James clearly has the upper hand. (And career-wise, James has the
    edge as well).
        當然這樹據顯示兩個球員在關鍵時刻都是非人哉，但是不可否認的是
        LBJ是比較好的一邊。（如果放大到生涯來比較，LBJ也是比較好。）

    The team context
        球隊陣容
    So the question then becomes: Is James selfishly piling up stats
    at the expense of his team's success?
        所以很多鄉民就會問啦：LBJ只是在乎數據的自私鬼啦，不管球隊勝負啦？

    It appears to be the opposite.
        不過答案是相反的。

    James' teams have outscored opponents by 126 points in his 228
    minutes of clutch play, debunking the theory that James is merely
    a compiler of empty stats; his individual play has coincided with
    winning basketball. Bryant is another story. Even with far
    superior teammates than James' former Cavs crew, Bryant has posted
     a minus-13 plus-minus in his 224 minutes of clutch situations.
    That is to say, the Lakers have, quite shockingly, been a losing
    team with Bryant on the floor down the stretch over the past two
    seasons.
        在統計LBJ所有228分鐘的關鍵時刻裡，LBJ的球隊淨贏對手126分！
        而這也粉碎了上面懷疑LBJ枉顧球隊只顧自己的說法。他的好表現
        直接帶給球隊勝利。(按：+126真的很扯....根本不是55波了 @@）
        kobe則是令一個故事了。即使他有公認比LBJ之前的騎士還好的隊友，
        在統計kobe所有224分鐘的關鍵時刻裡，kobe的球隊倒輸對手13分！
        簡單來說，在關鍵時刻裡，擁有kobe在場上的湖人隊在過去兩季裡
        是屬於輸球的那一方！

    This is a critical point. Boiling down clutch performance to six
    last-second shots is an extremely narrow view of the game. The
    circumstance happens so rarely that it is virtually a trivial
    exercise in randomness. To put it in perspective, Bryant and James
     have played a combined 7,871 minutes over the past two regular
    seasons, and only 17 of those minutes were played when their
    respective teams needed a "big shot" (tied or trailing by no more
    than three points with the game clock at less than 24 seconds).
    That's 0.02 percent of the time.
        這是各重點，也就是如果我們把kobe的六次絕殺時刻算進去，這代表的
        只是少之又少的狀況。換句話來說吧，過去兩季LBJ和kobe總共打了
        7871分鐘，而當中只有17分鐘的時刻他們所處的球隊需要絕殺球來定
        勝負（絕殺定義：平手或落後三分以內的狀況，時間少於24秒）
        這代表的是0.02%的上場時間。

    These numbers reveal James' teams haven't needed last-second
    heroics because his monstrous late-game play pushes the close game
     out of reach, rendering a game-winning shot unnecessary. Houston
    Rockets general manager Daryl Morey once said, "Good teams don't
    win close games -- they avoid them." And the player who
    personifies that ethos is James.
        這些數字代表了LBJ的球隊並不太虛要絕殺球，因為他關鍵時刻
        怪物般的表現通常早早把比賽推到不需要絕殺球才能贏的狀況。
        這時候讓我想到火箭隊的經理的名言：「好的球隊不需要贏比分
        接近的比賽--他們可以避免掉這種比賽。」
        而最能證明這句話的就是LBJ。

    The highlight reel conundrum
        高光影響

    We can direct some of the blame to the construct of the highlight
    reel. As a game's CliffsNotes, highlight reels capture the
    awe-inspiring plays and dramatic game-changing events in
    snapshots. They give us the game-winning shot, but the rest gets
    tossed to the cutting-room floor. And the truth is, we don't get
    to see all the times a player fails in critical moments; we see
    only the ones when he succeeds.
        造成人們這種觀感的原因可說來自比賽高光的取決。通常要描述一場
        比賽，高光裡總是放著一些不可思議的表現或是改變比賽的剎那。
        當然高光會秀出絕殺球，而其他的東西則被丟在剪接室的地上。
        更關鍵的是，很多時候我們不會看到球員關鍵時刻的失敗，
        我們通常只看到球員關鍵時刻的成功。

    Highlight reels, by design, help facilitate our inherent
    confirmation bias -- a fallacy of the human mind that causes us to
     remember what confirms our preconceived notions and throw out the
     contradictory evidence. Bryant holds the reputation as the game's
     most clutch player, and who are we to disagree when we see Bryant
     with a game winner seemingly every fifth day? No one has the time
     or the interest to watch all 96 of Bryant's missed field goal
    attempts in clutch situations since 2008-09. But those happened,
    and we need to account for them.
        高光讓我們的觀感有了很多偏見--這也是人性如此，自動在腦中汰換
        自己認為不對的畫面，而只看自己想看的。
        在這種情況下，kobe自然被塑造成絕殺球之王，因為誰有興趣去注意
        他自從08-09年來，已經投失了96次絕殺球！（按：婊很大 XD）
        但是錯失絕殺球的情形是有的，而我們（專業的）是需要去算他們的。

    Also, there's a certain flair to Bryant's typical game winners
    that lends itself to immortality. We watch in anticipation as the
    ball leaves Bryant's fingertips on a contested perimeter jumper,
    which is the toughest shot in the game. But the degree of
    difficulty of the shot works both ways. When he hits the
    back-breaking shot, it is heroic. But when he misses, it is
    understandable. All of James' seven makes have come within 8 feet,
     while all nine of Bryant's makes have come outside 12 feet (he
    missed his only attempt inside 12 feet, a layup).
        當然，kobe的絕殺球讓人有錯覺覺得似乎像永恆一樣是有原因的。
        第一，kobe的絕殺通常是在前面有人防守時的跳投，這可以說是
        比賽最困難的出手，因為是最困難的，所以當他投失，人們會認為
        算了，應該的。當他投進，人們則把他當英雄看待。
        而LBJ過去兩季的七次絕殺球都是在離籃筐8尺之內完成，而kobe的九次
        絕殺則都在12尺以外（事實上所有的絕殺嘗試都在12尺外，他唯一一次
        在12尺內的絕殺失敗了，是個上籃）

    So as scorers, James and Bryant have different styles, and this
    certainly has a dramatic effect on how we remember them as clutch
    players. Bryant's outside game provides better theater, whereas
    James' bruising attack leads to comparatively sleepy trips to the
    free throw line. But they provide the same means to an end.
        kobe和LBJ是用不同手段得分的，這也影響到人們的記憶。kobe的外圍
        跳投總能讓人們記憶深刻，LBJ的坦克上籃則有時候換到的是讓人們
        興趣缺缺的罰球。但是意義上是相同的才對。

    Ultimately, Bryant and James are two all-time legends, and it
    seems silly to boil their greatness to a few seconds of play.
    While the debate between LeBron James and Kobe Bryant will never
    die, the clutch badge has always rested on Bryant's sleeve. Now
    we're seeing that it isn't quite that simple.
        當然kobe和LBJ都是傳奇，所以這樣比較他們最後幾分鐘的表現
        或許有點傻。只是每當kobe和LBJ孰優孰劣的辯論出來，人們似乎
        總會把關鍵時刻表現的徽章給kobe，現在我們分析過後發現事實
        沒有那麼單純。

    If you want a game-winning shot, you might choose Bryant. But that
     happens no more than a handful of times per season.
        如果你要一棵絕殺球，那你或許可以選擇kobe。
        但是這種情況一季也不會出現幾次。

    If you want a player to carry the team down the stretch in the
    fourth quarter, we find that James, not Bryant, boasts the winning
     track record in the clutch.
        然而如果在關鍵最後幾分鐘的比賽，那我們發現LBJ才是王道。

＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝＝
        這篇文章真的是ESPN今天寫的文章，不是去年或前年的 XD
        （雖然似曾相似 @@）

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