[翻譯] SI Jacob Luft- From Break to Break

[RollingWave (Lost in the Dark)]

The All-Star Game is supposed to celebrate the best players from the first half
of the season. Well, the best players and Mark Redman, apparently. But three
months is not a long time in the marathon sport of baseball. In stathead
parlance, three months falls into the category of "small sample size." Instead
of looking at just the last three months of stats, let's take it a step further
and look at stats over the past calendar year -- from last year's All-Star
break to this one -- to see if we can find some real trends.

明星賽應該是前半季最棒的球員共襄盛舉的盛事... 我意思是最棒的球員與Mark Redman
。 但三個月在棒球並不算很長的時間。 對數據研究者來說這只是小樣本。 在這我們就
進一步看從上一季的明星賽到今天吧。 來看看我們是否能找到一些有趣的現象。


The best tool for this is day-by-day database on BaseballMusings.com, which
allows you to compare players' stats over different periods of time. Here are
a few interesting things I found on the database. All stats are through
Saturday's games.

最方便找每天的數據是 baseballmusings.com 。 我用這個資料庫找到了一些有趣的東西
。所有的數據都是禮拜六的比賽後的數字。

Top 10 Batting Average, July 14, 2005-July 8, 2006

(min. 400 plate appearances)

打擊率前十名， 7/14/05 -7 /08 /06
(最少四百次打席)

1. Victor Martinez, .346
2. Nomar Garciaparra, .343
3. Joe Mauer, .336
4. Freddy Sanchez, .335
5. Todd Helton, .328
6. Matt Holliday, .327
7. Derek Jeter, .326
8. Miguel Cabrera, .325
9. David Wright, .324
T10. Carl Crawford, .323
T10. Frank Catalanotto, .323
T10. Ichiro Suzuki, .323


Two of the top three hitters on this list are catchers. That's remarkable. It
points to how many offensive catchers are in the game today, from Mauer and
Martinez to A.J. Pierzynksi, Pudge Rodriguez, Michael Barrett, Brian McCann,
Russell Martin, to name more than a few.

前三名中有兩個是捕手。 這真厲害。 可見今天有多少厲害的打擊捕手。 除了
Mauer , V-Mart, AJP, 還有 Pudge, Barrett, McCann, Martin 等等。

In case you had any doubt, Holliday's rise to stardom is no fluke. He hit 15
home runs in the second half last year and an OPS of .925 compared to .782 in
the first half. Now in his age 26 season, he has continued to rake. Sanchez's
sustained production (he batted .306 in the second half of '05), coupled with
his minor league track record leads me to believe his strong first half is no
fluke, either.

Holliday的崛起不是意外， 他去年後半季打了十五支HR而且OPS 是 .925 而前半季是.782
。 現年 26， 他繼續的豪打。 Sanchez 的持續表現 (05 後半季打擊率 .306) 與他的
小聯盟數據顯示他今年優異的上半季也不是意外。

I didn't expect to see Catalanotto on this list, but a closer look at his
platoon splits explains why: He kills righties. The nondescript Toronto
outfielder has a career OPS of .840 against right-handed pitchers compared to
.680 against lefties. He's hitting .327 this season, thanks in part to the fact
that he has only had 12 at-bats against southpaws.

我沒想到會看到Catalanotto， 但仔細看就會發現這是因為他都是platoon選手而且專打
右投， 這名知名度低的多倫多外野手對右投的生涯OPS 是 .840 而對左投是  .680
他本季的 .327 打擊率主要是受益於只有面對左投 12次。

Garciaparra leads in fewest strikeouts (30) since last year's break while
hitting 20 home runs.

Nomar 在這一年間的三振次數最少 (30 次) 而且還有二十發HR.

Bottom 10
(min. 400 plate appearances)

最後十人， 最少四百次打席

1. Phil Nevin, .207
2. Clint Barmes, .209
3. Jose Guillen, .228
4. Brad Wilkerson, .229
5. Brandon Inge, .229
6. Carl Everett, .230
7. Yadier Molina, .232
8. Jeremy Reed, .232
T9. Steve Finley, .235
T9. Mike Matheny, .235


I'm dismayed to see one of my favorites and fellow Florida Gator, Wilkerson, on
this list. After hitting 32 home runs and walking 106 times in 2004, he had the
makings of a poor man's Adam Dunn. When the Rangers acquired him as part of the
package from Washington for Alfonso Soriano, I was among many who believed
Wilkerson alone made the deal a huge win for Texas. It hasn't worked out that
way and at this point I'm not sure it ever will.

我很遺憾我的的學弟 Wilkerson 在這個名單上。 在04年打了 32發HR與保送了 106次後
他看起來想是便宜版本的 Adamn Dunn。 當條子用 Soriano交換他的時候我認為他會是
讓條子成為這個交易大贏家的關鍵。 但目前沒有這樣的跡象..而我也開始懷疑他永遠不會
有。

How long can the Rockies wait for Barmes to come around? He hasn't done squat
since his red-hot April last season.

洛磯隊還要等 Barmes多久? 他去年四月後就沒有任何表現了。

Home Runs, July 14, 2005-July 8, 2006

全壘打 7/14/05 - 7/08/06

1. David Ortiz, 57
T2. Jason Giambi, 48
T2. Albert Pujols, 48
T4. Manny Ramirez, 47
T4. Ryan Howard, 47
T6. Adam Dunn, 44
T6. Alex Rodriguez, 44
8. Andruw Jones, 43
T9. Lance Berkman, 42
T9. Alfonso Soriano, 42

This list speaks to two things we pretty much already knew: 1) Ortiz may very
well be the most devastating offensive force in the game right now, maybe even
more so than Pujols; 2) Howard, 26, already belongs among the game's elite
power hitters.

這名單基本上說明了我們已經知道的兩件事情， 1. Ortiz 大概是現在棒球最強的攻擊
球員，目前可能比Pujols還強， 2) 26 歲的  Howard 已經是大聯盟中最強的打者之一


Bottom 10
(min. 400 plate appearances)

最少十人，至少四百打席

T1. Royce Clayton, 0
T1. Willy Taveras, 0
T1. Joey Gathright, 0
T2. Kenny Lofton, 1
T2. Juan Pierre, 1
T2. Jason Kendall, 1
T2. Aaron Miles, 1
T8. Scott Podsednik, 2
T8. Shannon Stewart, 2
T8. Nick Punto, 2


Can we get Congress to investigate how Clayton keeps cashing major-league
checks? Anybody on this list, they better offer something in their skills set
that is way above average to offset their incredible lack of power. Taveras and
Podsednik are probably the only guys who qualify in that regard, and possibly
Kendall. Maybe some A's fans out there can testify on his behalf.

我們可以請國會調查Clayton到底為何一直能牽到大聯盟合約嗎? 這名單上的任何人都
得證明他們其他的能力有特別的過人道能夠補上他們力量的不足。 Taveras 與
Podsednik 大概是為二能夠過關的， Kendall可能也可以...

Last year's HR Derby Champ, Bobby Abreu, has hit only 14 home runs in 548
at-bats since. He's on-base ability still makes him a outstanding run producer,
but the Phillies aren't paying him to walk.

去年全壘打大賽的贏家 Bobby Abreu 在那之後的 548次打席中打了 14發全壘打。 他的
上壘能力還是非常的優異， 但這不是費城人付錢給他的原因。

Home Runs Allowed, July 14, 2005-July 8, 2006

(min. 150 IP)

被打全壘打， 7/14/05 -7/08/06 最少 150 局

1. Scott Elarton, 40
2. Bruce Chen, 38
T3. Tim Wakefield, 36
T3. Jeff Weaver, 36
T5. Livan Hernandez, 35
T5. Josh Beckett, 35
T7. Jason Marquis, 34
T7. Jon Garland, 34
T7. Nate Robertson, 34
T10. Rodrigo Lopez, 33
T10. Freddy Garcia, 33


I'm not a scout but I'll play one on TV: There's nothing wrong with Beckett's
stuff. He's just stubborn. How else can you explain him players have enjoyed
multi-homer games off him six times this season? Josh, it doesn't matter how
great your stuff is. If it's in the middle of the plate, it's going to get hit.
Here are the members of the Beckett Multi-Homer Club this season:

我不是球探但我在電視上看的感想是Beckett的投球本身沒問題。他只是太固執了。不然
怎麼解釋本季已經有六個人在一場比賽中從他手上打出多支全壘打? Josh..你的球路多好
都不是重點， 如果你放到本壘板正中的話還是會被轟出去。 以下這些人就是本季單場
對上Beckett雙響炮的。

July 8: Jermaine Dye, 2
July 3: Ty Wigginton, 2
May 30: Vernon Wells, 2; Troy Glaus, 2
April 27: Ben Broussard, 2
April 21: Vernon Wells, 2

The next time Wells has an arbitration hearing, he'll have to invite Beckett as
a star witness.

下次Wells  薪資仲裁時可以請Beckett當他的證人。

Bottom 10
(min. 150 IP)

最少十人 (至少一百五十局)

1. Chien-Ming Wang, 9
2. Zach Duke, 12
3. Jeremy Bonderman, 13
T4. Jake Westbrook, 15
T4. Jason Schmidt, 15
T4. John Lackey, 15
T4. Noah Lowry, 15
T5. Byung-Hyun Kim, 16
T5. Aaron Cook, 16
T5. Jose Contreras, 16
T5. Scott Kazmir, 16


Lowry also ranks among the top 10 pitchers in ERA in this span. The San
Francisco lefty is a fly ball pitcher in a home park where fly balls go to die.
Indeed, thanks to the Coors Field humidor, the only truly unfriendly park in
the NL West may be Arizona's.

Lowry 也是在這時段中ERA 前十低的。 巨人隊的左投雖然是個飛球投手但是他的主場
飛球不容易出去。 事實上拜 Coors 的潮濕機之賜國聯西區的唯一一個打者球場恐怕只剩
下響尾蛇了。

The Yankees get ripped for a lot of their moves, but they deserve praise for
keeping Wang and second baseman Robinson Cano around. Which one has been more
valuable? So far it's Cano, who has 17 career Win Shares compared to 15 for
Wang, accoring to The Hardball Times. Although you could argue that since
starting pitching is at such a premium, Wang's contributions have been more
valuable.

洋基的交易動作常常被批評的狗血淋頭， 但他們留下王建民跟Cano 卻直得讚賞。 他們
兩人中誰比較有價值呢? 以win share 來看Cano 目前有 17 而王是 15，但你可以辯論說
好的先發投手比好的二壘手難找， 所以王的價值或許更高。


--
Self XDDDDDDDDD report

current status: 15 day DL (睡覺時扭傷左肩)

打擊能力: ok contact 與選球，打不到變化球， 長打威力類似Juan Pierre, 因為腰轉太
          慢會讓人誤以為是在學Jeter打反方向。

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推 chien533:辛苦了
推 RubenGotay:傳言紅襪對Bobby Abreu有興趣是因為他上壘率高.......
推 RollingWave:他明年 15M 後年option 16M
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