Re: [討論] Dustin Pedroia For MVP?

[leddy (耿秋)]

※ 引述《rebaica (oasis)》之銘言：
: 在Carlos Quentin自殘之後，Pedroia最近的大爆發似乎預告將成為MVP?
: AL MVP (只舉有機會進入季後賽的球員)
:              TEAM    PA    AVG   OBP   SLG  SB  CS  VORP
: Rodriguez     NYY   524   .313  .401  .596  17   3  64.0
: Pedroia       BOS   638   .332  .378  .505  17   1  59.1
: Quentin       CHW   569   .288  .394  .571   7   3  50.6
: Morneau       MIN   615   .311  .389  .521   0   1  49.8
: Youkilis      BOS   538   .315  .387  .560   3   4  48.0
: Mauer         MIN   539   .322  .415  .444   1   1  45.7
: Dye           CHW   547   .297  .351  .567   3   2  39.8
: 假定MVP不會頒給K-ROD的情況下，因為洋基在BP進季後賽的機率只剩下0.268%
: 所以A-ROD應該是沒機會了。所以，假如是白襪進季後賽，因為Quentin自殘，
: 除非Dye剩下20幾場大爆發，不然Pedroia拿到MVP的機率可說是很大。
: 但若是雙城進去季後賽，那勢必Pedroia跟Morneau或Mauer(看接下來的數據而言)
: 會有很大的競爭，不過整體來說，目前情勢是站在Pedroia這邊。

這篇文章倒是有不同的看法

資料來源

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/54397-anybody-but-pedroia-for-al-mvp

Anybody But Pedroia For AL MVP

September 05, 2008

Well, maybe not Francisco Rodriguez or Tony Pena, Jr., but let's put this to
bed right now: Boston 2B Dustin Pedroia is not your 2008 AL MVP, nor should
he be.

Chances are that, since Boston is such a heavily publicized team and Pedroia
has been hitting very well recently, MVP talk will surely start to include
the "jockeyish" second baseman among the league's best contenders for the MVP.

Let's put an end to that talk right here.

I will admit that Pedroia is having a solid offensive season. Hitting
.333/.378/.505 with a 127 OPS+ for 125-plus games will surely merit
attention, and 17 homers from a second baseman is not an every-season
occurrence.

When it comes down to the nitty gritty, however, it becomes clear that
Pedroia is simply not the correct choice for AL MVP.

The field will be narrowed a bit, now that Rangers 2B Ian Kinsler and White
Sox OF Carlos Quentin are each likely out for the remainder of the season
with various injuries. Both were clear contenders in a tight race, and their
early departure likely eliminates them from award contention.

The best remaining contenders, then, strictly in terms of VORP, would be Alex
Rodriguez, Grady Sizemore, and Aubrey Huff.

Yeah, that Aubrey Huff.

Of course, VORP alone does not a MVP make.


The reigning Rookie of the Year has a strong case, but how does it fare
against the likes of Alex Rodriguez, Milton Bradley, and Kevin Youkilis?

Pedroia leads the AL in batting average and runs, which are nice. You expect
that sort of production from a top-of-the-lineup hitter. But Pedroia is
nowhere to be found in the top five in the AL in on-base percentage,
slugging, OPS+, or adjusted batting runs and wins. True, he does lead the
league in hits, but when you have the second most at bats and third most
plate appearances, lots of hits are expected.

As are outs: Pedroia is responsible for the seventh most outs in the AL, too.

Rodriguez, on the other hand, is hitting a smashing .315/.404/.602, good for
one of only two OPSes in the AL over 1.000 (Bradley having the other).
A-Rod's 163 OPS+ easily outdistances Pedroia's 127, even if you consider the
positional difference for production. Rodriguez's MLVr, a statistic which
approximates the runs a player adds to a lineup per game if it were composed
of average players, is a whopping .414. Pedroia's stands at a pedestrian
.246, with .000 being average.

Pedroia does have two more runs created than Rodriguez, but that's hardly a
significant difference, considering Pedroia's had 127 more at-bats then A-Rod.

The biggest knock on Rodriguez is his supposed lack of "clutch" stats.
Ironically enough, A-Rod is batting .281/.384/.511 in tie games and
.254/.443/.458 with two outs and runners in scoring position. The high OBP
indicates a high level of fear in opposing pitchers, as A-Rod gets pitched
around and walked to a very high level. Just because his batting average is a
bit more moderate does not mean he hasn't been productive in those situations.

Bradley poses the biggest threat to A-Rod, with stats superior in nearly
every rate category, and with the only hamper being fewer games played.
Nevertheless, a player coming off major surgery and hitting .327/.446/.585
with 22 homers is certainly a force to be reckoned with. Bradley's 172 OPS+
puts him nine points ahead of Rodriguez, who is 14 points up on third himself.

Youkilis has a decent case of his own. He's sixth in slugging and fourth in
OPS, with 24 homers and a 142 OPS+. Compared with Rodriguez and Bradley,
however, his numbers just won't get it done.

Look for the lack of a healthy finish to dampen Quentin's and Kinsler's MVP
hopes, and while Rodriguez is the statistical favorite, anything can happen.
And with a month to work with, things can change quickly.

As we all know only too well.


--
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◆ From: 220.132.198.21
※ 編輯: leddy           來自: 220.132.198.21       (09/07 01:07)
→ KurtWarner:我認為現階段Youkilis還比Pedroia有機會 MVP對長打表現
→ KurtWarner:比較好的球員較有利 其實Youkilis的Win Shares在美聯
→ KurtWarner:還比Pedroia前面不少 前者排第六 後者只排第20
→ KurtWarner:MVP參考數據很多 但很多人卻喜歡抱著VORP不放
推 pikachu123:但守位也有差不是嗎?看看去年的Holliday就知道
推 merquise:MVP 其實就是選貢獻最大的一員吧 守位相對較不需考慮
推 maxspeed150:守位也算在貢獻內 還是會考慮
推 pikachu123:那為什麼Holliday會拿不到MVP > < ,問貢獻也沒比較少..
推 maxspeed150:因為Rollins去年話題性很高
→ pikachu123:                                  論
→ maxspeed150:不過兩人都是帶領球隊完成不可能的任務就是了
→ KurtWarner:不可否認守位會是考量的因素之一 但還是SS最有加分效果
→ pikachu123:所以投票主觀意識還是有影響
→ KurtWarner:而且去年Rollins也打了30發 要說他有長打表現也是有的
→ KurtWarner:另一方面所屬球隊拿下分區冠軍又比只拿下外卡有利
→ KurtWarner:從有外卡制度以來 只有去年的A-Rod, 02年的Barry Bonds
→ KurtWarner:還有98年的Sosa拿下MVP 而所屬球隊取得外卡 而A-Rod跟
→ KurtWarner:Bonds那年就算球隊沒進季後賽應該也能拿MVP
→ KurtWarner:雖然去年Rollins擊敗Holliday我也很驚訝 但以結果論來
→ KurtWarner:看就只能這樣分析了
推 rahim03:因為Holliday在coors 客場又打不好