作者IAmaMouse (我是一隻老鼠)
看板MLB
標題Re: [閒聊] 防守佈陣
時間Wed May 30 02:33:58 2012
看到了這個主題，去找了幾篇文章來看，這裡分享一篇：
http://0rz.tw/Uq08b
There's A Revolution Going On In How Baseball Teams Play Defense
球隊的防守的方式正在發生革命性的改變
EVER since the Cleveland Indians put three infielders to the right of
second base in 1948 against Ted Williams, a left-handed batter who rarely
hit ground balls the opposite way, baseball teams have deployed defensive
shifts against powerful lefties.
自從印地安人隊在1948年對Ted Williams在二壘右方擺上三個內野手，各球隊開始
在面對強力左打時使用shift。
Williams could easily have bunted the ball towards third base and
sauntered down to first for a single. But he continued swinging as hard
as he could, arguing that the defence would be irrelevant if he managed
to hit a home run.
面對shift，Ted大可把球點向三壘然後散步上一壘，但是Ted表示只要他把球轟到牆
外，你怎麼shift都沒差。
Since then, the vast majority of hitters who have faced shifts have
similarly refused to change their approach. Their opponents have been
delighted to watch them pound ground ball after ground ball straight
towards the repositioned infielders.
自那之後，絕大多數面對shift的打者也都不會改變打擊策略，而他們的對手也樂
於見到這些打者將滾地球打到調整站位後的內野手那去。
Yet despite their effectiveness, defensive shifts have been a relative
rarity for most of modern baseball history. They have almost never been
used against right-handed batters: because the first baseman must stay
reasonably close to the base to receive a throw, there would be a gaping
hole in the defence if all the other infielders were on the other side
of the diamond. And even among lefties, only the most extreme pull hitters
have faced shifts regularly. When there is even a modest chance that a
batter will hit a ball towards third base, managers have tended to play
a standard defence.
先不談shift的效率，shift在現代棒球中仍然相對少見。面對右打幾乎不會使用，
因為一壘手必須hold住壘包。面對左打也只會用在極端的拉回型打者身上。
In recent years the Tampa Bay Rays, baseball's most innovative franchise,
have abandoned this orthodoxy and begun shifting much more aggressively.
The Rays play in one of baseballs smallest markets and have one of its
lowest payrolls. Nonetheless, they have managed to make the playoffs in
three of the last four seasons thanks to their savvy management. Rather
than simply alternating between one of two infield alignments – normal
positioning and a Williams Shift – Tampa Bay has studied where each
opposing batter tends to hit the ball and concentrated their infielders
in those areas, even against right-handed hitters.
最近幾年最具創意、創新的光芒隊，拋棄了舊有的shift觀念，採用了更積極的
shift觀念。(中間關於經營狀況略過) 光芒研究所有球員的打擊習性據此調整內
野手站位，甚至是面對右打者時也是如此。
(原連結中有光芒面對Uggla打擊時將二壘手移防至二壘左方的圖片)
The results have been remarkable. From 2009-11 just 22.4% of the Rays
opponents ground balls became hits, compared with 23.6% for an average
American League team. That difference may sound small. But it amounts to
an advantage of 21 hits per season – which translates into a 1.7-game
improvement in the teams won-lost record.
成果很出色，在09-11年間，光芒對手擊出的滾地球只有22.4％形成安打，美聯平
均是23.6％。差距聽起來不大，但是這代表著一季多守下約21隻安打，也意謂著多
贏下1.7場比賽。
Signing a player on the free-agent market who would help the club by a
similar amount would cost over $8m. There is no way to prove that shifts
are the cause of this success – the pitchers might have induced ground
balls that are unusually easy to snare, or the infielders might simply be
excellent defenders (and at least one of them, Evan Longoria, certainly
is). But defensive positioning is by far the most likely explanation for
such a big, consistent edge over three separate seasons.
要在自由球員市場簽下可以帶來同樣效益的球員大概要花8M。當然，沒有證據顯示
這是shift帶來的好處，有可能是因為投手的球路使得滾地球特別好處理，有可能是
內野手防守能力優秀(尤其至少龍哥就是其中之一)，但是防守站位看起來還是造成
差距的最可能原因。
This year, the rest of the league seems to be catching up at last to
Tampa Bay. According to John Dewan of Baseball Info Solutions, a data-
gathering and analysis company, major-league teams are on pace to deploy
twice as many shifts this season as they did in 2011. Unsurprisingly, the
share of ground balls that become hits for the league as a whole has
dropped from 23.7% last year to 22.6% in 2012. In contrast, the proportion
of balls hit in the air that go for hits has fallen by only 0.3 percentage
points, an insignificant decline. Although the Rays are still easily the
leaders in the tactic – they are projected to put on 695 shifts this
season, over three times as many as their average in 2010-11 – they are
no longer alone. The runners-up are Baltimore, on pace for 386 shifts, and
Cleveland, on track for 342. Neither team was expected to contend this
season, but both are currently in first place in their divisions.
今年聯盟其他隊伍似乎開始效法光芒了。根據統計，以目前的進度，今年MLB使用shift
的次數將會是去年的兩倍。不意外地，聯盟滾地球的安打率從去年的23.7％降到今年的
22.6％。相對之下，飛球的安打率只下降了0.3％。儘管光芒預計還是會在shift使用
次數上遙遙領先，估計本季會使用695次shift，但是他們至少有伴了。
There are two potential interpretations of this trend. The pessimistic
view is that it shows that small-market franchises are doomed. Before the
Rays became successful, the Oakland Athletics used cutting-edge statistics
in the early 2000s to compile a winning team on a shoestring budget. Their
achievements were recently featured in the hit film Moneyball. However,
once richer clubs began using their methods against them, they could no
longer compete, and they have not had a winning record since 2006. The
same fate might well await Tampa Bay. Eventually, all the market
inefficiencies will be ironed out, and the only way for teams to win more
games will be to spend more money.
對於這個趨勢，有兩種可能的說法。比較悲觀的看法是小市場球隊又要悲劇了。在光芒
的成功之前，運動家的成功案例最近還登上大螢幕。然而，當富豪球隊開始使用相同的
模式，小市場球隊就無法競爭了。運動家自2006年後都沒勝率過半。相同的命運可能正
等著光芒。當所有的市場不效率消失，要贏更多場就只能靠花更多錢。
Fortunately, there is a compelling counter-argument to this dystopian
vision. Baseball strategy is not a puzzle with a single solution. Instead,
it is a dynamic system, in which a tactic that works against one approach
can be neutralized by another. And when it comes to shifts, the response
is as clear as the sea of empty infield dirt abandoned by the defenders
congregating on one side of the diamond. All it takes is a handful of
well-placed bunt singles to make the shift a losing strategy for the
defence. Carlos Pena of – who else? – the Rays has proven himself a
master of this riposte. As a result, he has enjoyed a double boost to his
production: he both secures free hits using bunts when he faces a shift,
and gets more hits on ground balls to the right side than do other lefty
sluggers, since the threat of his bunting means he faces fewer shifts than
they do.
幸運地，還有另一方面的看法。棒球策略不是唯一解的謎題，一個針對特定對象的
策略會被另一個策略打敗。而對於shift，反制的方法就像內野那如海一般大的空檔
一樣明顯：只要幾個觸點安打就可以讓shift變成防守的輸家策略。看看Carlos Pena
(然後好像沒其他人了？)光芒已經證明了本身就是擊敗shift的高手。Pena藉由觸點
雙面得利：面對shift用觸擊領免費安打，而他的右半邊滾地球也得到了更多安打，
因為他藉由觸擊降低了對手對他使用shift的次數。
Back in the 1940s, Williams managed to be the games best offensive player
despite losing dozens of hits to the shift named after him. Today, the
game has evolved to a point where stars can no longer afford to be so
stubborn. Sluggers who can bunt are the new market inefficiency, and the
first team that has its power hitters practicing this wimpy technique will
enjoy a crucial edge. For all we know, Tampa Bay may be doing so already.
回到40年代，Ted盡力成為比賽中最好的打者，儘管他因為以他為名的shift損失了數
十隻的安打。而今日，比賽已經演變到球星們不能再這麼固執了。有觸擊能力的強打
者會是新的市場不效率。而第一隻讓他們強打者練習這種俗辣招的隊伍將會擁有優勢，
而我們都知道，光芒可能已經開始進著手了。
=====================================
查了一下，Pena的生涯 觸點安打/觸點次數 為26/41，大約63％的成功率，如果從加
入光芒時算起(包括去年在小熊的一年)，則是23/33，高達70％的安打率。
所以本篇的作者認為防守shift目前看起來是有用的(但是上面abc12812也分享了一篇
關於shift帶來的負面效果的質疑，有興趣的可以去看看)，但是隨著大家對於站位研
究的加深，研究站位帶來的優勢會消失，而新的優勢便是具有觸點破解shift能力的強
打者。
--
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◆ From: 123.193.180.176
推 ShadowMask:推 05/30 02:51
推 Herlin:其實這篇前面有了 不過你有翻譯就是 05/30 02:52
推 CarlosPena:好shift，不點嗎? 05/30 02:53
→ IAmaMouse:真的耶，我的網址裡面發文日期寫25號所以我只爬到25號 05/30 03:04
→ IAmaMouse:沒想到其他網站上2號3就有然後就有版友貼過來了 05/30 03:05
→ IAmaMouse: 23號 05/30 03:05
推 prereality:話說前一陣子有人在問投手防禦率降低的事情也跟這有關 05/30 03:16
→ prereality:吧? 05/30 03:16
推 tanaka0826:推~ 05/30 04:08
推 APNA:推～ 05/30 09:21
推 danny789:推,不過market inefficiency翻得怪怪的 05/30 10:12
推 Sechslee:推翻譯 05/30 11:04
→ yaoyi94:papi也有點過不是？ 印象中 05/30 17:59
推 Jason11982:推翻譯 05/30 20:15
推 z9440610:推！ 05/30 22:11