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http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10067
by Jay Jaffe
The National League West is coming off a relatively strong year; its
five teams collectively posted the league's top winning percentage
(.519) of any of the three National League divisions.
The Los Angeles Dodgers (who won the division), Colorado Rockies (who
advanced to the playoffs as a wild card) and San Francisco Giants all
won at least 88 games. As 2010 dawns, the division finds itself in
relatively tight economic straits, with none of its teams making much of
a splash in the winter free-agent market. That's really nothing new;
these teams feature relatively strong player-development systems and a
host of talented young players, which enabled them to do as well as they
did with the lowest average payroll of any division at an average of $86
million. Depending upon how various personnel decisions shake out as the
spring continues -- including late signings -- any of the top four teams
might challenge for the title.
Colorado Rockies: 88-74 projected 2010 record
Why They Might Win: Overcoming last year's 18-28 start, the Rockies went
74-42 after replacing manager Clint Hurdle with bench coach Jim Tracy,
winning the wild card. They return the nucleus of that team, including
five starters -- Carlos Gonzalez, Dexter Fowler, Chris Iannetta, Ian
Stewart and Troy Tulowitzki -- 27 years old or under. Add to that a deep
rotation where four of the five starters are projected to post ERAs
below 4.40 -- thanks to their propensity for generating ground balls and
avoiding homers, the secret to surviving at altitude. Fronting the staff
is Ubaldo Jimenez, who forecasts to be one of the league's five most
valuable pitchers with a 3.37 ERA.
Why They Might Not Win: After winning the pennant in 2007 with a similar
cast (Matt Holliday being the most notable departure), the Rockies
pancaked to a 74-88 record in 2008, and they extended that futility into
May 2009. The development of those aforementioned young regulars at the
major league level has generally been erratic, as has the recent
performance of 36-year-old Todd Helton. Furthermore, starters Jorge De
La Rosa and Jeff Francis posted 5.00-ish ERAs in 2008, and could
certainly do so again, particularly with the latter coming back after a
year missed due to shoulder surgery.
Player Who Could Surprise: PECOTA believes in Iannetta's ability to
rebound from a subpar 2009 as he inherits the full-time catching
responsibilities from the departed Yorvit Torrealba, forecasting a
.255/.377/.473 line with 16 home runs.
Player Who Could Disappoint: PECOTA remains less than fully sold on
Gonzalez, tabbing him for a .281/.336/.472 line with 15 homers despite
last year's monster second half (.320/.384/.608).
Arizona Diamondbacks: 84-78 projected 2010 record
Why They Might Win: Brandon Webb and Dan Haren went into last year as
the division's best 1-2 rotation punch -- and they could reclaim that
distinction if Webb can return to form following a season lost to
shoulder woes. Haren (3.14 ERA, 7.2 K/9) forecasts as the league's
second-best pitcher after Tim Lincecum, and Webb (3.64 ERA) figures to
be productive if not always available (125 innings). Youngsters Justin
Upton and Mark Reynolds will provide plenty of power, while the return
of Conor Jackson from Valley Fever and the signing of Adam LaRoche
strengthens two positions where the offensive expectations are the
greatest, but where last year's denizens combined to hit an unacceptable
.247/.319/.399.
Why They Might Not Win: The Diamondbacks' young core has always been
somewhat OBP-challenged. Neither Stephen Drew nor Chris Young has really
panned out; the latter was sent back to Triple-A last August after
skirting the Mendoza Line. They're also depending upon Edwin Jackson to
pitch closer to his first-half 2009 form (2.52 ERA, 0.7 HR/9) than his
second-half one (5.02 ERA, 1.7 HR/9), and for Ian Kennedy to overcome
two largely lost years to prop up the back of the rotation.
Player Who Could Surprise: PECOTA is quite optimistic about incoming
second baseman Kelly Johnson rebounding from a dismal 2009 with the
Atlanta Braves, pegging him for .283/.373/.469 with 14 home runs..
Player Who Could Disappoint: Kennedy is forecast for a 4.59 ERA, with
1.2 HR/9. If he can't keep his walk rate in check, that will only get
worse.
Los Angeles Dodgers: 81-81 projected 2010 record
Why They Might Win: Fundamentally, this is the same team that stormed
out of the gate last year, putting up the league's best run differential
despite losing Manny Ramirez to a drug suspension for 50 games. Manny's
vacation as well as subpar years from Rafael Furcal, James Loney and
Russell Martin were offset by major breakouts by Matt Kemp and Andre
Ethier -- and a career year from Casey Blake. Only at second base will
the Dodgers have a new starter, and every year that Clayton Kershaw and
Chad Billingsley get under their belts is another year closer to their
ascendance to being two of the league's top pitchers.
Why They Might Not Win: Owner Frank McCourt's divorce from wife and
former team CEO Jamie McCourt appears to have affected the team's winter
spending, and they find themselves depending upon Vicente Padilla to
provide a career year along the lines of departed free agent Randy Wolf.
Even more frighteningly, all five projected starting pitchers --
Billingsley, Kershaw, Hiroki Kuroda, Padilla and James McDonald -- grade
out as red lights via Will Carroll's Team Health Reports, meaning each
has at least a 50 percent chance of winding up on the disabled list.
Furthermore, Loney and Martin have failed to advance after strong
beginnings to their careers, and Ramirez -- who hit just .255/.380/.448
after taking a fastball on the wrist in late July -- may be finished as
a dominant offensive force.
Player Who Could Surprise: Key for a team whose external resources
appear to be limited, PECOTA is sanguine regarding the Dodgers' young
fifth-starter options -- but the forecast of rookie Scott Elbert's
striking out 10.3 batters per nine innings is intriguing.
Player Who Could Disappoint: The system is particularly down on the 36-
year-old Blake, foreseeing .258/.339/.417 with 17 homers.
San Francisco Giants: 81-81 projected 2010 record
Why They Might Win: One reason: pitching. The Giants boast a rotation
fronted by reigning two-time NL Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum. Two other
starters, Matt Cain and Jonathan Sanchez, broke out with career-best
showings last year, and even their ridiculously expensive No. 3 starter,
Barry Zito, posted his lowest ERA since 2006.
Why They Might Not Win: One reason: hitting. Even with the work GM Brian
Sabean has done to the offense, it's probably not enough. None of their
incoming regulars -- first baseman Aubrey Huff, second baseman Freddy
Sanchez and left fielder Mark DeRosa -- projects to be even major league
average at their positions; DeRosa is the lineup's only regular besides
third baseman Pablo Sandoval who's even projected to post a .350 OBP.
Player Who Could Surprise: PECOTA really likes Sanchez's chances of
holding onto the gains he made in the second half of 2009, forecasting a
3.91 ERA and 9.4 K/9.
Player Who Could Disappoint: It'll certainly be a disappointment if 23-
year-old Buster Posey, who at one point appeared on track to be the
team's Opening Day catcher, is sent back to the minors or forced to
surrender significant time to Bengie Molina.
San Diego Padres: 72-90 projected 2010 record
Why They Might Win: Forced into cutting costs and rebuilding following
the divorce of former owner John Moores, the Padres finished a
relatively respectable 75-87 last year despite receiving just 13 starts
from ace Jake Peavy prior to his being injured and then traded. Incoming
GM Jed Hoyer has thus far held onto star slugger Adrian Gonzalez, found
a lineup spot for power-hitting 275-pound behemoth Kyle Blanks, returned
Chase Headley to his natural position at the hot corner, and made some
smart deals to accumulate a full menu of outfield options, so the team's
offense should at least be adequate.
Why They Might Not Win: The trade of Peavy leaves the Padres without a
true frontline starting pitcher, and while Mat Latos may someday fill
those shoes, he's 22 and has just 50.2 big league innings under his
belt. Chris Young has made just 32 starts over the past two years and
has yet to top 180 innings in a season, so he's not that guy, either.
Furthermore, guys like Jon Garland, Kevin Correia and Clayton Richard
are innings-eaters -- not aces -- and it's too early to tell if former
2003 first-round bust Tim Stauffer can replicate his second-half 2009
form. None of the starters forecast to have ERAs below 4.20, with Young,
Garland and Correia all above 4.50 -- hardly impressive given the
advantages of pitching in Petco Park half the time.
Player Who Could Surprise: The raw projections of Blanks
(.262/.345/.463) don't look terribly impressive, but hitting 24 homers
in his first full major league season while playing his home games at
Petco Park would be significant.
Player Who Could Disappoint: Young is forecast for a 4.88 ERA and just
113 innings.
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