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http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10080
by John Perrotto
Baseball's smallest division figures to be one of its most interesting
in 2010. The Los Angeles Angels have won three straight American League
West titles, and five of the past six. However, they appear vulnerable
after losing ace pitcher John Lackey to the Boston Red Sox as a free
agent, third baseman/leadoff hitter/defensive whiz Chone Figgins to the
division rival Seattle Mariners as a free agent, and designated hitter
Vladimir Guerrero to another division rival, the Texas Rangers.
Meanwhile, the Mariners and Rangers are looking for more after being
surprise teams last season. The Mariners have added a second ace, Cliff
Lee, to team with Felix Hernandez in the rotation—and the Rangers'
financial situation should improve now that the Nolan Ryan/Chuck
Greenberg group is ready to assume ownership. PECOTA expects a shakeup
in the AL West this season.
Texas Rangers: 87-75 projected 2010 record
Why They Might Win: Pitching and defense went from being a perennial
weakness to a strength last season; this should also be true in 2010.
They were fourth in the AL in runs allowed (an average of 4.57 a game),
thanks to the fine work of new pitching coach Mike Maddux, and ranked
second in the league in defensive efficiency, a simple metric that
measures the number of balls in play that are turned into outs.
Why They Might Not Win: They are pinning a lot of hope on Rich Harden
staying healthy and being their No. 1 starter, even though he has topped
150 innings just once in six full major league seasons. They are also
counting on an untested Julio Borbon in center field; PECOTA projects
him for just a .335 on-base percentage and a .404 slugging percentage.
Player Who Could Surprise: Colby Lewis returns stateside after spending
the past two seasons pitching in Japan. PECOTA believes the time abroad
has helped the Rangers' first-round draft pick from 1999 -- it projects
Lewis to post a fine 3.84 ERA in 165 innings.
Player Who Could Disappoint: Scott Feldman seemingly came out of nowhere
to lead the team with 17 victories last season. PECOTA doesn't see a
repeat, forecasting a 9-9 record and 4.78 ERA in 157 innings.
Seattle Mariners: 83-79 projected 2010 record
Why They Might Win: They have two of the best starting pitchers in the
game in Hernandez and Lee. The defense that will back up the duo led the
AL in defensive efficiency last season. Ichiro Suzuki and Figgins should
form a dynamic 1-2 punch at the top of the batting order.
Why They Might Not Win: They went 85-77 last season despite giving up
more runs than they scored. Teams that do this will historically regress
the next season. Milton Bradley can help the offense if he's healthy,
but, with his history of outbursts, he might also destroy the
outstanding clubhouse chemistry.
Player Who Could Surprise: Brandon League, acquired from the Toronto
Blue Jays in an offseason trade, is projected to have a 3.34 ERA in 55
innings by PECOTA. That could make the flamethrower the much-needed
reliable set-up man for closer David Aardsma.
Player Who Could Disappoint: Lee is projected for a 3.67 ERA in 204
innings by PECOTA, which certainly isn't bad, yet that would be a
letdown for Mariners fans, after he posted a combined 2.89 ERA mark in
the past two seasons.
Oakland Athletics: 82-80 projected 2010 record
Why They Might Win: If Ben Sheets and Justin Duchscherer are healthy and
return to their old form, they would anchor a rotation that could
include a number of intriguing young pitchers, including Brett Anderson,
Trevor Cahill, Dallas Braden, Gio Gonzalez and Vin Mazzaro. Andrew
Bailey is back to close after being the AL Rookie of the Year last
season.
Why They Might Not Win: They were ninth in the AL in runs scored last
season but traded their big bopper, Matt Holliday, to the Cardinals last
July, and got more mileage than the law allows out of Adam Kennedy, who
was allowed to walk as a free agent in the offseason. They were also
ninth in the league in defensive efficiency.
Player Who Could Surprise: Duchscherer is projected by PECOTA to have a
solid 3.97 ERA, albeit in 97 innings, after missing all of last season
with elbow and hip injuries.
Player Who Could Disappoint: The Athletics spent big money (at least for
them) when they gave a one-year, $10 million contract to Sheets as a
free agent, even though he sat out last season while recovering from
shoulder surgery. PECOTA isn't optimistic about a big return on the
investment, as Sheets is tabbed for just five wins and 92 innings.
Los Angeles Angels: 76-86 projected 2010 record
Why They Might Win: While they have lost Lackey, they still have a very
formidable rotation with Jered Weaver, Joe Saunders, Ervin Santana,
Scott Kazmir and Joel Pineiro. Mike Scioscia is among the game's best
managers; his teams always outperform the sum of their parts.
Why They Might Not Win: Figgins is a big loss. He was excellent both as
a table-setter at the top of the batting order and with the glove at
third base. Counting on Brian Fuentes and Fernando Rodney to be the
primary late-inning relievers just seems to be asking for trouble.
Player Who Could Surprise: Brandon Wood, whom it seems has been a
prospect since Jim Fregosi was the Angels' star, will finally get his
chance at the major league level. PECOTA projects Wood to hit 25 home
runs as Figgins' replacement.
Player Who Could Disappoint: Rodney converted 37 of 38 save
opportunities for Detroit last season, but PECOTA sees him with a 4.34
ERA this year, a high figure for a guy who was paid a lot of money on
the free-agent market to pitch in high-leverage situations.
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