[情報] Division Preview - AL East

[Westmoreland (Five Tools/Seven Skills)]

  http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10071

  by Tommy Bennett


  The American League East has produced the eventual AL pennant winner in
  each of the past three seasons and seven of the past 10. In the 2000s,
  AL East teams (well, the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees, really)
  won four World Series. In six of the past seven years, the AL East has
  also produced the wild-card team. Almost without question, the AL East
  is the toughest division to win in baseball.

  Our projection system, PECOTA, projects the performance of every player
  on every team for this season. When combined with our most recent
  playing-time forecasts, we can project the standings. Traditionally, the
  Yankees and Red Sox are the behemoths that exert tremendous gravity on
  the other three teams, effectively weighing down their schedules 36
  times a year. Somehow, in this most extreme of competitive environments,
  new hope is managing to grow.



  Boston Red Sox: 94-68 projected 2010 record

  Why They Might Win: PECOTA projects the Red Sox to allow just 677 runs,
  the fewest since they won the World Series in 2007. Their defense, which
  ranked 18th in the majors last year in our park-adjusted efficiency
  rankings, has been drastically improved with the additions of Mike
  Cameron and Adrian Beltre. The addition of John Lackey to the pair of
  aces in Josh Beckett and Jon Lester gives the Red Sox what is probably
  the strongest three-starter combination in baseball.

  Why They Might Not Win: The Red Sox are unlikely to score as many runs
  this year as they did last year (872) -- PECOTA projects them for 808.
  They have effectively swapped Jason Bay out for Cameron, a downgrade
  offensively. Marco Scutaro, while an upgrade over the ghosts of Red Sox
  shortstops past, is not a great hitter. Their offensive core is aging,
  increasing the risk of injury.

  Player Who Could Surprise: Clay Buchholz has tantalized fans with his
  promise but has yet to find consistent success. Heading into his age-25
  season, PECOTA projects Buchholz to pitch 152 innings with a 10-7 record
  and 3.89 ERA. Behind the top three, Buchholz could provide a nifty bit
  of production at the back of the rotation.

  Player Who Could Disappoint: Scutaro was signed with the hope he would
  stop the revolving door at shortstop; PECOTA sees him as a competent yet
  unspectacular player. Although he put up a .379 on-base percentage last
  season while Red Sox shortstops combined for a .297 mark, PECOTA
  projects his batting average to slip to .278 and his OBP to drop to
  .362, and he's unlikely to show much power.



  New York Yankees: 92-70 projected 2010 record

  Why They Might Win: The Yankees are set to be a run-scoring juggernaut;
  PECOTA projects them to outscore all other teams, with 821 runs total. A
  full season of Alex Rodriguez plus the additions of Nick Johnson and
  Curtis Granderson means this lineup will be the toughest to get through
  in baseball.

  Why They Might Not Win: The starting pitching, while helped by the
  addition of Javier Vazquez, is not as good as Boston's. The Yankees need
  Vazquez to limit his home runs allowed, which is a perennial problem for
  the fly-ball pitcher -- and Joba Chamberlain needs to bring his good
  fastball every start. The Yankees will win a lot of slugfests, but they
  can't win them all.

  Player Who Could Surprise: After several on-again, off-again seasons, it
  appears Robinson Cano has found his groove. PECOTA agrees, and projects
  a .297/.338/.493 season; you'll see good defense from him in his age-27
  season, a time when players often peak.

  Player Who Could Disappoint: The Yankees brought back Andy Pettitte for
  another season, but PECOTA doesn't like his chances to match his 4.16
  ERA from last season. Instead, he projects to a 4.71 ERA, which would be
  the worst of his career.



  Tampa Bay Rays: 91-71 projected 2010 record

  Why They Might Win: The Rays project to be a well-balanced team, scoring
  800 runs and allowing 699. They play good defense, have two strong
  frontline starting pitchers in Matt Garza and James Shields, and are
  young. They also have enviable depth, with top two prospects -- pitcher
  Jeremy Hellickson and outfielder Desmond Jennings -- raring to make
  their major league debuts.

  Why They Might Not Win: The back of their rotation is in flux and
  contains question marks. Andy Sonnanstine was plain awful last season
  (6.77 ERA), and David Price and Jeff Niemann have yet to fully establish
  themselves. Additionally, despite the emergence of Ben Zobrist, the Rays
  have only one legitimate offensive superstar in Evan Longoria.

  Player Who Could Surprise: Wade Davis has been ranked by Kevin Goldstein
  as one of the Rays' top prospects before each of the past three seasons,
  and this year is no exception as the right-hander is a five-star
  prospect. After putting up a 3.40 ERA at Triple-A last season, PECOTA
  sees Davis pitching 165 innings with a 4.55 ERA. The only reason he
  might not do that is because Hellickson (whom PECOTA projects for a 3.97
  ERA in limited time) is nearly ready to take his rotation spot.

  Player Who Could Disappoint: Many fans were hoping Pat Burrell would
  bounce back after a disappointing 2009. PECOTA is not optimistic. It
  projects a .241/.371/.443 line, which is an improvement -- but not
  enough to be a productive DH in the AL East.



  Baltimore Orioles: 79-83 projected 2010 record

  Why They Might Win: In any other division, the Orioles would probably be
  a contender. Although this probably isn't the year they put it all
  together, they are tantalizingly close to a return to respectability.
  They are projected to score 781 runs -- fifth in the AL, but fourth in
  the East. The outfield of Nick Markakis, Adam Jones and Nolan Reimold
  might be the best in the division. Starters Brian Matusz and Chris
  Tillman could have breakouts in their first full major league seasons.

  Why They Might Not Win: Their starting pitching is not yet where it
  needs to be. Kevin Millwood isn't as good as his ERA made him seem last
  year, so PECOTA projects Brad Bergesen to be the Orioles' starter with
  the lowest ERA at 4.40. This is not a formula for success.

  Player Who Could Surprise: Jones started last year strong
  (.303/.357/.481 before the All-Star break), but cooled in the second
  half. PECOTA thinks he can do it all season this year, pegging him for
  .294/.350/.501. Even more noteworthy is his high "Breakout" score, which
  suggests a good probability that his production will improve by at least
  20 percent over his established level of performance.

  Player Who Could Disappoint: Millwood, despite a superficially strong
  ERA last season, has lost the ability to strike out batters at a high
  rate. PECOTA sees the writing on the wall and projects him for a
  pedestrian 4.71 ERA and just 5.8 strikeouts per nine innings.



  Toronto Blue Jays : 71-91 projected 2010 record

  Why They Might Win: The Blue Jays have an uphill battle, but they've got
  a couple of young bats in Adam Lind and Brett Wallace who could blossom
  into excellent hitters. If young pitchers Brandon Morrow and Marc
  Rzepczynski reach their potential, the team could potentially catch
  fire.

  Why They Might Not Win: It would take just about everything going the
  Blue Jays' way for them to win this year, including a turnaround by
  former top prospect Travis Snider and the emergence of someone to fill
  the large void left after they traded ace Roy Halladay. They project to
  score just 702 runs, fewest in the AL, while playing in baseball's
  toughest division.

  Player Who Could Surprise: Lind is on the cusp of superstardom. On the
  heels of a 35-homer season, PECOTA projects for more of the same:
  .279/.340/.495 with 31 homers. His top comparables include former All-
  Stars Harold Baines and Ryan Klesko.

  Player Who Could Disappoint: Ricky Romero is a former first-round draft
  pick (chosen between Ryan Braun and Troy Tulowitzki), so when he dazzled
  in his major league debut last season, many fans hoped his promise had
  finally been realized. However, PECOTA -- taking into account a minor
  league track record that was not particularly strong -- envisions a 4.82
  ERA this season, which suggests he may not spend the whole season in the
  rotation.



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