推 Okajima:這個預測太有趣了 CHW DET MIN都是龍頭但勝率不超過5成XD 02/20 07:03
推 pinpon:這區是怎樣...全部不到5成也太慘了 02/20 10:36
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10084
by Christina Kahrl
Last year's projections suggested that the division would be as tight as
ever, but if truth seems to keep upping the ante on fiction, leave it to
PECOTA to try to trump that by delivering what would be a logistical
disaster for the postseason: a three-way tie between the likely
contenders, with the White Sox, Minnesota Twins, and Detroit Tigers all
initially being projected for 80-82 records. It's a long way until
Opening Day, so that's not quite the same thing as saying that we
predict the division will be won with an under-.500 record, but all
these teams have problems, and if the 1973 New York Mets are worried
about their status as history's most feeble division winner (82-79),
that's understandable.
Chicago White Sox: 80-82 projected 2010 record
Why They Might Win: They've scrupulously followed the formula that
worked in 2005 in assembling their 2010 team: a rotation so good that a
former ace ranks as the fifth starter. That was Orlando Hernandez then,
and it's Freddy Garcia now. A bullpen stocked with multiple closers?
With the addition of J.J. Putz and the emergence of Matt Thornton to
support Bobby Jenks, check. Power up the middle? With Alex Rios in
center and Gordon Beckham moving to second to join shortstop Alexei
Ramirez and catcher A.J. Pierzynski, that's looking good, too.
Why They Might Not Win: If Jake Peavy breaks down, the rotation starts
to look a lot less impressive. If Rios continues to sleep-walk his way
through the South Side portion of his career, he'll be the most
expensive mistake ever made involving revocable waivers. And the thing
about that 2005 plan … did they really have to follow the part about
getting a leadoff hitter who doesn't get on base? I'll see your Podzilla
and raise you a Juan Pierre. The hitting portion of being a DH is non-
optional, yet that's what the Sox are probably stuck with if they settle
for Andruw Jones and Mark Kotsay.
Player Who Could Surprise: A healthy Carlos Quentin is already projected
to slug .492 with 26 homers, but that's a median projection; you can
reasonably expect more if he's all the way back, and the open DH slot
might give him a few days and ways to avoid blowing out one joint or
another.
Player Who Could Disappoint: The surgically repaired Garcia managed
seven quality starts in nine turns last fall; he won't match that rate
of success this year, so Rios is the obvious candidate. His slumbering
bat down the stretch is all the Sox got to see, but he's projected for
almost 60 extra-base hits; if he doesn't deliver, the club lacks the
depth to adapt.
Detroit Tigers: 80-82 projected 2010 record
Why They Might Win: The decision to blend something new with something
old might turn into a fine transitional team, with headliners Justin
Verlander and Miguel Cabrera getting support from finally healthy
veterans like Carlos Guillen and Jeremy Bonderman -- and new kids Max
Scherzer in the rotation, second baseman Scott Sizemore, and more. One
more bat would put them over the top, but is there enough Ilitch money
to ink Johnny Damon?
Why They Might Not Win: If the Tigers get too much weak work out of
veterans like Magglio Ordonez, Brandon Inge and Nate Robertson, they'll
end up asking too much of the kids to carry the Kitties as far as
contention -- and kids like prospect Austin Jackson in center might not
even be properly ready for The Show as is.
Player Who Could Surprise: It's a unit instead of a player, but the
Tigers' bullpen could be loaded with flamethrowing talent to soak up
innings and hand off leads to closer Jose Valverde. Whether or not Joel
Zumaya comes all the way back or not, hard-throwing Ryan Perry and
Daniel Schlereth are former first-rounders headlining a group that will
be critical to repeating last season's fragile late-game success.
Player Who Could Disappoint: Rick Porcello got a lot of credit for his
work down the stretch as a 20-year-old rookie, but careful handling and
timely run support went a long way to get him to 14 wins. If he takes
the step forward scouts expect, his strikeout rate will improve and his
development will continue; if it doesn't, you've got a defense-dependent
kid who caught a few breaks, and those don't break your way every time.
PECOTA wants to see more before getting excited, projecting a 4.83 ERA -
- good work for 21, but less than people expecting the new Verlander.
Minnesota Twins: 80-82 projected 2010 record
Why They Might Win: The division's best lineup isn't just The Joe Mauer
and Justin Morneau Show anymore, because the commitment to Denard Span
in center plus the additions of J.J. Hardy and Orlando Hudson in the
middle infield spare the Twins last season's dependence on mighty mites.
Plus, the slick-fielding Hardy and Hudson should help the strike-
throwing staff bounce back from a bumpy 2009 season.
Why They Might Not Win: While adding Jim Thome to the bench creates
interesting possibilities should Delmon Young struggle again, depth is a
big issue. They can't afford to lose Mauer or Morneau or Michael
Cuddyer; the fallbacks in the infield are last year's collection of
punchless wonders. The rotation is far from a sure thing, what with Carl
Pavano now being counted on and Kevin Slowey coming back from injury.
Player Who Could Surprise: Francisco Liriano isn't a lock to win the
fifth starter's slot, but he is the candidate who could be a lot more
important than just a fifth starter. His stuff is still electric, and if
he can finally rise above the control and durability issues that
hampered him last season, there's a chance for considerably more upside
than his projected 4.47 ERA suggests. If that doesn't work out, there's
always the hope that he can grow up to be the new Arthur Rhodes, a
premium set-up southpaw in the pen.
Player Who Could Disappoint: Young has managed to be a pretty major
disappointment already, so expectations should be low. Between poor
fielding, a terrible command of the zone and a bad approach, there's a
point at which those quick wrists just aren't enough to guarantee him
his job. Trading Matt Garza away was bad enough, but it's up to Young to
deliver. PECOTA's skeptical, because a .290 batting average is nice, but
a left fielder who slugs .432 is hard to put up with.
Cleveland Indians: 77-85 projected 2010 record
Why They Might Win: Low standards plus creative management could provide
the opportunity for deals that put them in a slow race. Things that need
to happen, in order of some likelihood to less so: Grady Sizemore
healthy, Shin-Soo Choo proving he's the real deal (PECOTA's a believer),
Matt LaPorta making a splash and full-fledged comebacks from Jhonny
Peralta and Travis Hafner. If none of the front three run away from the
pack, it's possible that lineup can score enough runs, because it'll
have to.
Why They Might Not Win: New skipper Manny Acta is only too familiar with
this picture from his days with the Washington Nationals, but the
rotation lacks a stopper. Or a good No. 2. And maybe nobody you'd really
call a No. 3, depending on how you feel about a comebacking Jake
Westbrook or Justin Masterson. And between Fausto Carmona's command
issues and the low-upside alternatives at the back end of the rotation,
it's hard to see how the Indians would score enough runs to remain
competitive deep into the season.
Player Who Could Surprise: Asdrubal Cabrera seems to go through nagging
injuries, minor setbacks and position changes that keep him out of the
limelight. Now that the plus defender is finally set at shortstop, his
combination of power, patience and speed will deliver on PECOTA's top
comp for him, former All-Star Tony Fernandez.
Player Who Could Disappoint: Beyond Hafner's ugly case of the
30somethings, Carmona's the easy pick here, because it was expected he'd
be an established front-end starter after his 2007 breakout. Instead,
he's struggled to put hitters away with his sinker, and even after
returning from a punitive demotion last season, his ERA was 5.29.
Kansas City Royals: 74-88 projected 2010 record
Why They Might Win: As long as 80 is all it takes, the Royals are
baseball's last-place prediction with the best shot at pulling off an
upset, rating as the only cellar dweller projected within 10 games of
first place. Maybe Luke Hochevar, Kyle Davies and saber-fave Brian
Bannister all blossom at once, giving Zack Greinke some real partners in
crime, and not just guys wearing the same-colored double knits.
Why They Might Not Win: Attaining mediocrity in Kansas City seems about
as realistic as building condos on the moon. The defense is a bit dodgy
-- none of their options for center, short, or second are plus defenders
-- the rotation beyond Greinke and Gil Meche is mostly a conversation
about notional upside, and the bullpen isn't deep.
Player Who Could Surprise: Alex Gordon's career has been one flavor of
disappointment after another, but he's healthy, he can build on the
flashes of power he's shown in the past, and PECOTA likes both his
potential to break out (20 percent) and simply improve (51 percent). His
top comps involve plenty of risk (Eric Chavez, Hank Blalock), but also
some outright greatness (Robin Ventura). Rick Ankiel is a close second
now that he's healthy and guaranteed an every-day job.
Player Who Could Disappoint: Just give Yuniesky Betancourt his trophy
already, and a career non-achievement Oscar while you're at it.
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 118.160.67.42