2011 Five questions: Colorado Rockies

[ygjhsu (杰)]

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-colorado-rockies5/

Five questions: Colorado Rockies
by Ben Pritchett
April 01, 2011


How much does $237.5 million buy you in today’s economy?

兩億三千七百五十萬美金可以買什麼?

: Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, that’s what. Both players saw their
: stock as baseball players rise to meteoric levels.

Tulo跟Cargo，就這樣。趁著自由球員市場火熱的時候，這兩個球員選擇與洛磯隊簽下
近乎包含整個生涯的合約。

: In 2010, Tulowitzki won his first Gold Glove award. Baseball Info Solutions
: gave him its Fielding Bible Award. He didn’t captivate the world just with
: his glove. He garnered much of his attention from his Ruthian September, in
: which he hit 15 home runs and had 40 RBI. Only Babe Ruth himself had a better
: singular month than Tulo.

2010 Tulo拿到個人第一個金手套，同時也拿到防守聖經獎。但是他不只有手套。
沒有人能夠忘記10年9月的Tulowitzki，那個月他打了15支HR、40分打點。
歷史上有人單月成績比他好嗎? 有的，那個人叫做Babe Ruth。

: The beautiful thing about him is that he is just 26 years old, and he plays a
: stellar shortstop. Health permitting, he should be considered the best
: overall shortstop in baseball. If you look at his 10-year $157.75 million
: contract, one should think that the Rockies got an incredible bargain on such
: a magnificently gifted athlete. He always will face doubters who question his
: ability to stay healthy, but he will never face doubters of his talents and
: abilities. His signing gives the Rocks a name they can build their franchise
: around. Denver isn’t a huge edifice of baseball, but the foresight and
: fortitude to find the cash to lock down a superstar of Tulowitzki’s caliber
: should be applauded, especially in a market dominated by the Northeast.

想想他才26歲，健康的話會是整個大聯盟最棒的SS。這樣看來，10年1億五千多萬的合約對
洛磯來講，真是賺到囉。不過，雖然不曾有人質疑他的天分與能力，Tulo卻常被質疑他無
法保持健康。簽下Tulo，成為洛磯的基石。雖然丹佛不是棒球重鎮，不過能夠挖到金礦，
把Tulo這種巨星綁住，還是值得鼓勵。

: Don’t fall asleep on Gonzalez. Just recently George Karl of the Denver
: Nuggets, of all places, compared the “smoothness” of CarGo to that of the
: great Roberto Clemente. Where Karl errs in that comparison is that Gonzalez
: hit 34 home runs in 2010. Clemente’s career high for a single season was 29.
: Another possible difference is in that oh-so-lovely stolen base department.
: Gonzalez stole 26 bases in 2010; Clemente never swiped more than 12 in a
: single season. The batting average compares nicely. Gonzalez hit .336 last
: year, and Clemente was a career .317 hitter.

聽到Cargo的名字別睡著。最近丹佛金塊隊的總教練George Karl才把Cargo的流暢動作與
名人堂球星Roberto Clemente(生涯3000安，卻在飛往尼加拉瓜賑災途中墜機身亡)比較
不過Karl可能沒搞清楚一點，Clemente生涯單季最多轟也只有29，Cargo去年打了34。
而且講到盜壘，Gonzalez更是略勝一籌。Cargo去年打擊率.336，Clemente生涯.317。


: I don’t think anyone believes that Gonzalez will conclude his career with a
: comparable career average. The “smoothness” that Karl is referencing may be
: most noticed in the defense of Gonzalez, the 2010 Gold Glove winning left
: fielder. Clemente finished his career with 12 Gold Gloves mining the right
: side of the outfield. He was arguably the greatest fielding right fielder of
: all time. Gonzalez should hope that he will one day be that good. The Rockies
: have invested $80 million over the next seven years on the hopes that
: Gonzalez will be nearly as good as Clemente.

我不認為Gonzalez最後能有類似的生涯打擊率。這邊Karl所提到的"流暢動作"，應該是指
他的守備。Clemente生涯拿了12座金手套，被認為是史上防守最好的右外野手之一。
Gonzalez拿到2010金手套，洛磯希望最後他能表現得跟Clemente一樣好。

: I believe that as the life of these contracts becomes more and more
: intertwined with the Rockies' ability to operate, they will have a negative
: impact on Colorado’s ability to fill the gaps. Pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez's value
: should continue to rise, and managing the payroll beyond the three stars will
: prove very difficult in a city like Denver. I hope the Rockies have more of a
: plan than putting all their cash in a super-talented, injury-prone shortstop
: and a free-swinging yet equally gifted, youthful outfielder.

我相信當這兩張合約走到讓洛磯隊捉襟見肘時，他們會發現無法把球隊的洞給補起來。
畢竟，加上市場價值越來越高的UBall，小市場球隊實在很難在三大明星外再補強什麼。
洛磯隊選擇把錢灑在天賦洋溢的兩名選手身上，一個是容易受傷的游擊手，
另一個是自由揮擊的年輕外野手。我希望洛磯球團在補強上有更完善的規劃。

Who’s going to close games when Huston Street gets hurt?

街哥受傷的話，誰來關門?

: Only seven current closers have more career saves than Street. He has proven
: himself as valuable an entity to Colorado as any other player on the roster.
: Street had pro scouts salivating as he won College World Series MVP honors
: while playing for Texas. He would then wow us in 2005 when he won the
: American League Rookie of the Year award as a member of the Oakland
: Athletics. His skills are evident as you watch his low 90s fastball tail
: through the zone. He pitches with great poise and often can overpower
: hitters. In 2009, he saved 35 of 37 games in which he closed.

現役球員中，只有七個投手的救援次數比Street多(註1) 他已經證明自己在褲兒濕的能力
在大學時代，Street就讓球探流盡口水，同時也拿下了美國聯盟2005年新人王。
他的球路充滿尾勁，雖然速球只有low-90s，依然能讓打者摸不著頭緒。
2009年，37個救援機會中，Street只砸鍋2次。

: Last season was a different story. He had a late start while dealing with a
: multitude of injuries. We saw his ERA creep back up to 3.61. Over his
: six-year career he has spent over 160 days on the disabled list. He is now
: the prototypical health risk at just 27 years old.

上一季又是另外一回事。在好不容易克服傷痛復出後，我們看到他的ERA飆高到3.61。
超過六年的職業生涯，Street待在DL的時間超過160天。
以27歲的年齡來說，他顯然有很容易受傷的風險。

: The Rockies must concern themselves with how to prepare for a possible
: stretch of time without their talented closer. As we examine their roster,
: there’s Franklin Morales who has notched 10 career saves and has the stuff
: to close. But what he has in skills, he will always screw up in his command
: of his pitches. He has never really been as successful as most thought he
: could be when he and Jimenez burst onto the scene in 2007.

因此，洛磯隊必須考慮到沒有Street在場上的狀況。看了看25人名單，我們發現Franklin
Morales具有Closer的資質，同時也有終結者的經驗。但是我們也知道，他有控球上的問題
從他跟UBall同時在07年登上大聯盟的舞台，Morales從來沒有達到人們對他的期待。

: What about Matt Lindstrom? Well he has 43 saves scattered over the past three
: years, including 23 last year as a member of the Houston Astros. Most would
: assume that the signing of Lindstrom was Plan B to Street.

林風暴呢? 他過去三年也有43次救援成功啊! 許多人認為，簽下林風暴，就是球團有考慮
到Street有可能會受傷。

: I know the Rockies don’t put much importance in my opinion, but I hope I’m
: not the only one who sees the potential of Rafael Betancourt. I know he’s
: 35, but he doesn’t walk anybody and strikes out well more than a batter an
: inning (89 Ks in 62 innings pitched last year). If I’m the manager and I’m
: looking over this list of relievers. I would always stop on Betancourt. He
: has the skills to be Street's understudy. Let’s hope there’s no need for
: such a job, but Betancourt should be more than capable.

我知道洛磯球團不太重視我的意見，但是我希望我不是那個唯一看出Betancourt潛力的人
他35歲了，但是他不投四壞，三振率又超高(去年89K/62IP) 如果我是總教練，從我今年所
有的投手中，我一定會挑Betancourt。他可以當Street的備胎。
雖然我們不希望這種事發生，但是Betancourt一定能輕鬆勝任。

Are the Rockies still fun even with a humidor?

有了保濕器，洛磯比賽還有趣嗎?

: For years we, the baseball fandom, have been fed propaganda proclaiming the
: humidor as the answer to the home run haven of Coors Field. Anyone who has
: read The Hardball Times Handbook 2011 may have a different feeling. Our boss
: and essayist Dave Studeman detailed evidence displaying that last year may
: have actually debunked the theory that a humidor has cured Coors of its
: propensity for pop.

長久以來，我們都以為保濕器可以解決褲兒濕容易被幹砲的問題。不過如果看了
"The Hardball Times Handbook 2011"這本書，或許你會有不一樣的感受。
我們的老闆跟專欄作家，詳述了各種證據，說明保濕器並不如你想的那樣
可以讓飛球飛得沒那麼遠。

: First, I don’t think most people know what the "humidor" actually is, and
: how it affects the game in Denver. The humidor is a room within Coors where
: the baseballs are kept. This room mimics the environment in which the
: baseballs are made and stored in other locations. Since the air is so thin in
: the Mile High City, humidity’s effect or lack thereof is the foremost reason
: most use to explain why balls fly out of there like school children to recess.

首先，我想大部分人都不知道"保濕器"這玩意到底是什麼，更別說如何影響比賽。
保濕器事實上是褲兒濕球場的一個房間，負責保存比賽用球。
這個房間要維持住棒球製造與保存在其他地方的環境。換言之，既然高海拔的空氣稀薄
濕度的影響與其缺乏，就變成解釋為什麼飛球在褲兒濕總像脫韁野馬的主要原因。

: Recently Alan Nathan, a physicist, wrote a guest article for Baseball
: Prospectus on the subject. Apparently, Arizona is considering a humidor for
: its Chase Field to copy the success of the Coors Field humidor. It is a
: fascinating read.

不過，最近有一個物理學家，寫了一篇討論這個問題的文章。裡面提到Arizona也想為他們
的Chase Field蓋一座相似的"保濕器"。這篇文章很有意思。

: One important facet to interpreting the validity of statistics is sample
: size. For example, if I took the final month of 2010 as my projection basis
: for evaluating players for 2011, then Tulowitzki would be the best player in
: the game, followed closely behind by Mike Aviles.

解讀數據的時候，一定要看樣本數的大小。如果我拿去年最後一個月的數據來預測球員今
年的表現，Tulowitzki一定是最棒的，跟在他後面誰呢，Mike Aviles。

: In his evaluation of park factors, Dave Studeman pointed out that we should
: not place our faith in one year’s worth of data in determining park effects,
: but he also pointed out that the increase in home runs at Coors Field in 2010
: could be signaling several things. Either the data used to anoint the humidor
: as the answer to home runs didn't use a large enough sample size (years) to
: make an accurate determination of its success or that 2010’s 1.50 home run
: ratio was an aberration, and we can expect a correction soon. Either way the
: jury must still be out on whether treating baseballs like a Cohiba is really
: working.

前面提到的棒球專欄作家，在解讀park factor的時候，他指出我們不應該看一年的球場
成績來決定park factor。但是他也說，2010年褲兒濕全壘打產量的增加可能意味著什麼
即使是檢驗保濕器是否成功的數據，樣本數也不夠大。讓我們無法看出，2010年的單場
1.5支全壘打，是否只是短暫的偏差，終究還是會回歸正常。無論如何，目前要判斷
這種把棒球像Cohida雪茄一樣放在humidor(humidor也可指雪茄盒)的做法是否合宜
還言之過早。

: I, for one, enjoy the park factors. I am enamored by the Green Monster at
: Fenway, the short porch in New York, and the windiness of Chicago. That’s
: the unpredictability that we love about baseball. Coors Field should embrace
: its power prowess as all parks should embrace their own unique identities. No
: other sport has all the different venues that we enjoy in baseball, and
: because of that, no other sport has the "hallowed grounds" of an epic
: ballpark.

以我個人來說，我喜歡各個球場都有不同的特性。我喜歡Fenway的綠色怪物、紐約的淺右
外野牆，還有芝加哥的風。這就是棒球的迷人之處：不可預測性。褲兒濕應該以打者天堂
自居，就像其他球場各有其特色。其他運動都不像棒球如此多變迷人，而且正因為如此
也不會有其他運動像棒球場一樣還會有"hallowed grounds"的存在。

Is Ubaldo Jimenez a bona fide ace?

UBall是貨真價實的ACE嗎?

: Armed with one of the most electrifying fastballs, Jimenez cemented himself
: early in the 2010 season as a pitcher to watch. I know that when I saw he was
: pitching on television, I made sure my DVR was recording.

擁有可怕的火球，Jimenez是10球季初最亮眼的投手之一。當我看到他在電視上投球，
馬上就把我的錄影機打開。

: Jimenez throws nearly 100 mph with incredible movement, and that’s just his
: four-seamer. His two-seamer has equally devastating movement with slightly
: less speed. According to Fangraphs pitch value index, his fastball registered
: as the second best in the majors last year with a rating of 30.0. To give you
: a frame of reference, only 11 other pitchers in the game had a rating higher
: than 20.0.

UBall有將近100mph、尾勁刁鑽的速球，這還只是他的四縫線。他的二縫線同樣很會跑，
只是速度慢了點。根據Fangraphs的數據，他的速球在整個大聯盟中排名第二，拿到30分
30分有多棒呢?其他投手的速球，高於20分的只有11個人。(最高為Tim Hudson)

: His start to the 2010 season was by far the most talked about, especially in
: the fantasy baseball communities. Every “expert” was staking his claim of
: finding him first. I will argue that his lackluster control could be blamed
: on how nasty his stuff is.

現在講到Uball，很少不提他那驚人的10年開季，特別是在FB社群。每個"專家"要證明自己
的觀點，都先拿Jimenez出來舉例。不過我覺得，他在控球上的問題，會對他那優異的球路
造成一些影響。

: He is a 200-plus strikeout pitcher who should pitch another 215-plus innings.
: His delivery seems effortless while cranking it up in the high 90s. He’s 27
: years old and uses his power to get groundball rates in the low 50s. People
: must remember that he is accomplishing all these feats, humidor or not, in a
: top three hitter’s park. He is an ace in every sense of the word, and once
: he gains more control of his filthiness he could be a 20-game winning Cy
: Young Award winner very soon.

他本季應該能投出另一個215+局的球季，並且飆出200次以上的三振。儘管飆出high-90s
的火球，他的出手還是非常輕鬆。他只有27歲，能夠用球威把滾球率控制在50幾趴。
人們應該牢記，他是在一個極端偏向打者的球場(不管有沒有保濕器)，達成這些數據。
不管你怎麼定義ACE，他就是ACE。而且只要他能夠改善控球，UBall絕對是能夠20勝的
賽揚級投手。

How will the West be won?

國西激戰誰會脫穎而出?

: The Rockies have all the pieces in place to be successful in 2011. They have
: three good starters. They play good defense. Their lineup has power, speed
: and role players, and 2010’s playoff run should give them the confidence to
: know that the postseason is within reach.

今年的洛磯準備好了。他們有三個好投手，好的防守陣容。打線部分，有砲有腿有替補。
去年與季後賽擦身而過，今年的洛磯隊應該要更有信心。

: Obviously health will play a major factor, probably more so for the Rockies
: than other teams in the National League West. Tulowitzki, Ian Stewart and
: Street must stay healthy for the Rocks to compete against the 2010 World
: Series Champion San Francisco Giants or the wildly talented Los Angeles
: Dodgers. I don’t foresee the Padres performing as valiantly as they did in
: 2010. The Padres will not be able to sneak up on anyone, and the Arizona
: Diamondbacks are still a few players off from becoming a real contender.

當然健康很重要，對落磯來講可能更重要。Tulo、Stewart跟Street，都是球隊的基石，
他們必須保持健康，才能跟衛冕冠軍舊金山巨人，以及才華洋溢的洛杉磯道奇一較長短
我不認為教士隊能打出去年的戰績，他們應該不能當攪局者。至於響尾蛇，他們還缺少一
些球星，讓他們能夠重返競爭者之林。

: How will the Rockies defeat the Giants? That’s going to be a task. The
: Giants have lost nothing since last year and welcome Brandon Belt, a future
: batting champion to their roster. The Rockies will have to have great
: performances from the back end of the rotation with Jason Hammel and Esmil
: Rogers and have one of their position players step hisr game up, whether
: that's Dexter Fowler or Stewart or more likely Seth Smith.

洛磯怎樣才能打敗巨人呢? 這也許有點困難。他們的冠軍陣容今年捲土重來，還多加了
Brandon Belt這個潛力新秀。洛磯必須在輪值的後段(Hammel、Rogers)有所表現，同時
也要有Tulo、Cargo以外的打者大爆發，像是Fowler、Stewart或者更有可能是Smith。

: I think the Rockies match up much better against the Dodgers in both hitting
: and pitching. Colorado plays better defense and will not be intimidated down
: the stretch if the action is forced under the lights of Tinseltown.

另一方面，我認為今年的洛磯在攻守方面都優於道奇。洛磯的防守比較好，也不會受到
好萊塢刺眼鎂光燈的威嚇下做出錯誤決策(這句有點酸...)

: A fight for a wild card spot is more realistic than an outright win of the NL
: West. The Giants have too much of everything to bet against at this point. I
: could see a real battle with Atlanta or Philadelphia into late September. But
: I think the Rockies can give up their dreams of making it much farther than
: that. Maybe next year.

爭奪外卡或許比搶下國西桂冠來的實際。巨人的陣容看起來還是非常嚇人。我可以預期
費城人與勇士到了九月底還殺的難分難捨，不過我覺得洛磯應該可以讓其中一隊的外卡
夢碎。他們明年再來吧!

註1: 他們分別是Mariano Rivera(559)、Francisco Cordero(290)、
Francisco Rodriguez (268)、Brad Lidge (222)、Jose Valverde(193)、
Jonathan Papelbon (188)、Brian Fuentes(187)跟Bobby Jenks (173) 應該是8位


--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 220.134.179.129
推 Ayukawayen:因為Jenks不是"current closer"?
→ ygjhsu:如果這樣講的話Fuentes好像也不應該是XD
推 Tulowitzki2:推
→ Fitzwilliam:Clemente不是前往波多黎各途中墜機的，是要從波多黎各
→ Fitzwilliam:前往尼加拉瓜賑災，結果才起飛就墜海。遺體一直沒找到
感謝指正!
推 ajarist:推
推 albertjet:Sosa某年6月20hr的成績也贏Tulowitzki的10年9月吧
→ Beisbol:每次看到Street，就要回味一下2006ALCS的影片
→ interesting:Joe Nathan呢?
Joe Nathan (247)，真奇怪BR竟然沒有把他放在現役球員，是因為去年都沒打嗎 lol
※ 編輯: ygjhsu          來自: 220.134.179.129      (04/03 09:35)
→ rayven:今年勇士這麼被看好啊
推 zamethy:好文不推嗎
推 oopsmamamiya:好想知道排名第一的速球是誰@@ 不是uball難道是盲腸?
推 celipliz:先推 不過U-Ball那一段講到Fangraphs的 他是說速球評分超
→ celipliz:過20的只有11人
→ celipliz:還有回oopsmamamiya, 第一名是Tim Hudson,  32.1
感謝樓上指正
※ 編輯: ygjhsu          來自: 140.112.174.95       (04/10 16:19)