2012 Five questions: Miami Marlins(下)

[Tulowitzki2 (屠龍)]

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-miami-marlins/
(接續)



Is it possible that the Fins will make the playoffs?

馬林魚有可能進季後賽嗎？


Possible: yes; probable: no. The New York Mets of 1968, for example, won 73
games and finished near the bottom of the National League. The next year, the
Miracle Mets won 100 games and the World Series title. The Florida Marlins of
2011 sat in the cellar of the NL East with 72 wins. Perhaps there will be an
eerie comparison at hand, or perhaps the Marlins will find that their grandiose
free agency binge was ill conceived.

可能會也可能不會。
舉個例來說，1968 年紐約大都會隊只有國聯最差的 73 勝，
隔年就奇蹟似的贏得 100 勝並且拿下世界大賽冠軍；
佛羅里達馬林魚去年的72勝也是國聯東區墊底，
但他們可能就是下一個紐約大都會，
也可能他們後來會發現簽下那堆 FA 都只是腦充血時的傑作。


Ramirez should vastly improve on his 1.3 WAR showing (he averaged 5.96 WAR over
the past five seasons). Perhaps Josh Johnson can stay on the field for a longer
time, and provide a boost from his 1.7 WAR total in 2011 (he averaged 5.95 in
the previous two seasons). Carlos Zambrano could calm in a new situation, and
he could be an extremely valuable asset if he regains control over his
attitude. Morrison may have room to improve on his 1.0 WAR campaign last year.

小亨利得要從去年的泥淖中快速奮起（過去五季平均 WAR 5.96，去年只有 1.3）；
Josh Johnson 能多出賽幾場（過去兩季平均 WAR 5.95，去年 1.7）；
Carlos Zambrano 在新環境可以好好冷靜並控制好自己的態度的話，他將很有價值；
Logan Morrison 有空間可以讓去年的 1.0 WAR 再更上層樓。


So essentially, with rebounds, health and free-agent success, the Marlins could
see incredible improvements. Factor in arbitrary—perhaps meaningless— boosts
from what, in theory, would be unfamiliar hometown support, and a new manager,
and perhaps—just perhaps—the Marlins could see a historic turnaround.

綜合那些止跌回升的、健康的、成功的FA等等因素，馬林魚會有長足的進步，
還有一些詭變的因素啦... 雖然不一定有影響到。
新的總教練、到了邁阿密後他們可以得到前所未有的在地支持......
理論上他們有可能... 只是有可能... 馬林魚可以重演歷史。

I wouldn’t bet on it, though.

但我還是不會下他們就是了。



Is ownership a legitimate concern?

老闆是個值得擔心的問題嗎？


Remember this? When Logan Morrison was demoted for attitude issues (in the same
clubhouse that held the perpetual headache of Hanley Ramirez for a number of
years prior). President Larry Beinfest, at the time, was quoted as saying, “We
thought it was in the best interests of Logan to go down and concentrate on
baseball and all aspects of being a major leaguer, and work his way back.”
 Some of the concerns about Morrison included his Twitter account and his
skipping on a meet-and-greet, and though the Marlins were in the midst of a
lost season, I’d be hard pressed to find a legitimate argument for mental
development time (also known as: demotion) over player development time.

還記得去年 LoMo 因為態度的問題被下放這件事嗎？
（前幾年小亨利的問題也不斷困擾著這支球隊）
總裁 Larry Beinfest 說：「現在下放對讓他而言是最好的。」
「他應該要把專注力拉回球場上，學著怎麼樣當一個大聯盟球員」
這大概跟他的推特帳號還有愛放炮有關，
但我實在很難找到一個合理的原因來告訴自己，對一個處於失敗球季的馬林魚而言，
球員的心理發展（大概就是所謂「下放」）比球技發展還要重要。


That said, I’d feel comfortable counting the Morrison demotion as a one-time
mistake. Sure, the Marlins are an outspoken bunch—Hanley about his managers,
Morrison about everything, and well, Ozzie about everything—but owner Jeffery
Loria did dole out the dollars to try to build a winning team in a brand-new
stadium. I don’t agree with the Morrison demotion, but I have little doubt
that Loria is invested fully in winning, because he literally is at this
juncture.

我覺得放錯一次是也還好啦。
老闆 Loria 灑了一堆錢要在新球場內打造一支常勝軍，
想想看，
隊上現在有堆嘴砲的人－－愛戰教頭們的小亨利、對每件事都有意見的 LoMo 和 Ozzie..
我覺得他們把 LoMo 下放是一個錯誤的決定，
而且我也不太相信說，Loria 會願意在這個節骨眼去全力投資。



Can the Marlins make a run without a healthy campaign from Josh Johnson?

如果沒有 Josh Johnson，馬林魚還有搞頭嗎？


As of Opening Day, a healthy Josh Johnson would be the ace of the following
rotation, with a full season being defined as one with more than 180 innings:

健康的 Josh Johnson 會是隊上的王牌、開幕戰先發。
如果我們把完整球季定義為出賽 180 局以上：

Josh Johnson (average of 5.95 WAR over past two full seasons)
Anibal Sanchez (average of 4.10 WAR over past two full seasons)
Mark Buehrle (average of 3.55 WAR over past two full seasons)
Ricky Nolasco (average of 3.00 WAR over past two full seasons)
Carlos Zambrano (average of 2.85 WAR over past two full seasons)


For comparison’s sake, all five members of the Marlins starting rotation
meeting their two-season averages would yield a WAR of 19.45. Only one team’s
top five beat that mark in 2011, and that rotation belongs to the Phillies.

為了方便比較，5 個輪值的球員都用完整兩季的成績為基準來平均，
把他們總合起來，平均一季共可以貢獻出 19.45 的 WAR，
去年只有一支球隊的輪值超過這個數字：費城費城人。


Last year, the top five starting pitchers ranked by WAR for the Marlins, were:

去年馬林魚先發輪值 WAR 的排名：

Anibal Sanchez 3.8
Ricky Nolasco 3.5
Javier Vazquez 3.2
Josh Johnson 1.7
Chris Volstad 1.3

The newfound depth on the Florida roster means that Wade LeBlanc is the
replacement starting pitcher, rather than Brad Hand or Clay Hensley, who ate
100-plus innings and 21 starts with a -0.6 WAR total. LeBlanc, though highly
flawed, put up a positive WAR, that, though meager, stands tall compared to the
Handsley beast: 0.5 wins above replacement in 80 innings.

新成員 Wade LeBlanc 是個平均水平左右的SP，比 Brad Hand + Clay Hensley 略優。
雖然他也有一些明顯的問題，不過還能在 80 局中貢獻出正的 WAR。


The Marlins have some semblance of depth at this point, and though the
questions exist in further bunches: Does Zambrano tear apart the clubhouse,
literally and/or figuratively? Does Guillen clash with the big personalities
and perceived laziness of star Hanley Ramirez? Does Stanton stay healthy? Does
Bell crash and burn outside of PETCO? Does Johnson overcome his shoulder woes?

馬林魚的球員深度目前看起來不錯，但他們還有很多問題：
大Z會來掀屋頂嗎？
Ozzie Guillen 會和那些性格派幹上嗎？會體驗到 Hanley 怠惰的威力嗎？
Stanton 會健康嗎？
Bell 離開 PETCO Park之後會大爆炸嗎？
Josh Johnson 能克服肩膀問題嗎？


The Marlins have a clue at this point, and didn’t at a similar point just one
year ago.

他們現在還是有很多問題，但也和一年前的樣子迥然不同了。


A quick turnaround—nay, historic one—might be in order. Might.

或許他們現在很適合再馬上拿一次冠軍，或許啦......



--
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。水桶蕭然，不蔽風日；短褐穿結，囊袋屢空。─晏如也。常著文章自娛，頗示己志。臥
薪嘗膽，力圖復國。
    贊曰：天龍之Z有言：「不戚戚於板規，不汲汲於推噓。」極其言，茲若人之儔乎？
新年將至，捲土重來。鄉帥氏之民歟？曉鳥氏之民歟？
　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　Tulowitzki2‧〈蘭坡先生傳〉

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◆ From: 118.168.73.232
※ 編輯: Tulowitzki2     來自: 118.168.73.232       (03/07 19:50)
→ Tulowitzki2:覺得這一篇很廢，十句有八句是廢話，上篇還稍微好一點
→ meteorhades:LOMO的推特帳號有什麼問題嗎? 還是因為整天在用推特?
→ Tulowitzki2:他喜歡在推特上面講一些話讓球團覺得很困擾
推 ygjhsu:印象最深的發言 "每次認識美眉 都會google看有沒有影片" XD
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→ Tukiyomi:後來謎底揭曉是歌手Prince...
推 kie0522:看完整篇 連著英文也看完 總覺得有講跟沒講一樣
→ Tulowitzki2:看來開春第一戰，鄉帥氏之民失利了
推 sexyfunny:"香"民 崩潰
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推 Tyrone:看第一頁就看不下去了 可能會也可能不會 阿是還有第三選項?
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推 digimaster:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ADXs2C4Vmho
推 chemikelvin:第一段到底在廢話啥阿 笑死我XDDD
推 KIRAcitrus:不得不推你的簽名檔