2012 Five Questions: Atlanta Braves

[celipliz (犀利痞子)]

Five questions: Atlanta Braves
by John Beamer
March 05, 2012
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-atlanta-braves7/

After going 163 games in 2010 and suffering a Mets-esque fall in 2011 (although
the fact that the Braves weren’t leading the division somehow makes it seem
less painful) 2012 is a year full of expectation for Braves fans. However, one
thing is for sure: the NL East suddenly has become a lot more competitive with
the free-spending Marlins throwing their wallet at every free agent that moves
and the Nationals potentially about to move Bryce Harper into their lineup.

Onward with our five questions then.

去年死得跟之前的大都會一樣慘 ( 好吧，至少不是從分區龍頭跌下來 ) 的勇士，
相信大家今年對他們的期望會很高。不過大家也看到同區的馬林魚，挖到石油似的補強
加上國民隊有可能把 Bryce Harper 推上場，這使得國聯東區好玩多了。

Will Jason Heyward recover?
        - Jason Heyward 會找回自己嗎? 

Stats never lie, and J-Hey’s 2011 had all the hallmarks of a classic sophomore
slump. After a respectable .376 wOBA in 2010, he fell to a mark of .314 in
2011. The issue was both contact and power as he struggled with a dud shoulder
for much of the year. As the slump set in, he tried to force contact at the
plate and ended up striking out too often. His Achilles' heel was pitches
outside the zone, where he had a 28.3 percent swing rate compared to 23.3
percent in 2010.

數據會說話，去年很明顯的 Heyward 也遇到了二年級生撞牆期。wOBA 從 .376掉到.314
。肩膀的問題讓他安打跟長打都出不來，而當他太想要打到球時，三振率更是節節高升。
尤其是對好球帶以外的揮擊率，從 23.3 跳到 28.3。

Wind the clock back a couple of years and Heyward had superstar potential. In
fact, going into 2010 he was Baseball America’s top prospect. That year, het

tial in the bigs to suggest he has what it takes to be a
regular All-Star.

時光倒轉一下，那些年我們一起覺得他有明星球員的潛力，連 BA 都指名他為2010第一新
秀。當年他也展示出他是真貨。

The good news is he's still very young. Heyward turned 22 in August, and that
makes him younger that many of the top hitting prospects expected to get
playing time this year like Brett Jackson and Devin Mesoraco. The other factor
that hurt J-Hey last year was a precipitous drop in BABIP from .335 to .260,
and that should rebound somewhat. Factor in an xBABIP of .315, and 2011
suddenly is a .365 wOBA-type season.

好消息是他還年輕，他去年八月才剛22歲，比今年其他隊的新秀還年輕，而且去年的
BABIP 從.335掉到.260，這個勢必會反彈。其實如果算進 xBABIP 的話 (.315)，去年
其實沒有那麼糟，wOBA其實可以達到.365的。

As a result, his projections going into 2012 are good. Oliver pegs him at
.274/.367/.475 with 20 homers. My view is that line feels a little
conservative. Given the Braves’ lack of power in general, Heyward needs to
deliver if the Braves are going to play deep into October.

Heyward今年應該會回升，我們的Oliver猜他.274/.367/.475，20HR，我都覺得稍嫌保守。
看勇士隊那"精美"的砲火，勇士十月能不能打球，要看Heyward的表現了。

Can the 2012 bullpen replicate the success of last year?
        - 牛棚能否重現去年的雄風呢? 

In 2011, the Braves bullpen was lights out—well, at least until the last
couple of weeks of the season. Even with that little slip, the Eric
O'Flaherty-Jonny Venters-Craig Kimbrel combination was among the best shutdown
end-game in the bigs. Can the young trio maintain its form into 2012?

11' 牛棚實在是很威 ( 好吧，去掉最後兩星期的話 ) 即使算進去的話，
O'Flaherty-Venters-Kimbrel 堪稱去年最強大的關門組合。他們能繼續下去嗎?

One issue that potentially plagued Kimbrel & Co. was overuse. Kimbrel hurled 77
innings while Venters notched up 88—that’s a lot for two hard-throwing young
relievers. The projections for 2012 are strong. Venters is expected to have a
FIP in the high twos, while the expectation is that Kimbrel will be
substantially better. On paper, that makes for a lights-out bullpen again in
2013.

最有可能的原因，應該是天天OVK的關係。去年Kimbrel丟了77局，Venters 88局，對兩個
年輕火球少年來說，可能有點太多。不過2012的預測還是不錯，Venters 的 FIP大概會稍
微低於3，Kimbrel 應該會表現更好，然後2013應該也不賴。

Perhaps the biggest question is mental. Time and again we’ve seen young
relievers have a couple of bad high-leverage outings that then go on to affect
the rest of their careers. Joey Devine anyone? Of course, comparing Devine to
Kimbrel may be akin to comparing Kraft cheese slices with a fine French Brie.

最大的問題還是在心理因素，我們也很常看到被打爆一兩場就從此壞掉的，舉例說明：
Joey Devine ( ... 躺著也中槍 ) 當然，拿Devine 跟 Kimbrel 比就像是拿XX比雞腿

Kimbrel has a powerful fastball/slider combination and over 97 career innings,
he has struck out 167 batters. The biggest change is his command as he has
slashed his walks-per-nine innings from 5.7 in Triple-A to 3.7 last year in the
majors. The key to a successful 2012 is ensuring his command stays strong.

Kimbrel有著強大的速球跟滑球，生涯累積97局的他已經三振掉167人了，而且保送率也
從小聯盟的5.7降到3.7。2012要贏? Kimbrel 控球是關鍵。

Can Tommy Hanson remain healthy?
        - Tommy Hanson 能健康嗎?

One reason the Braves fell away in 2011 is because Hanson spent quite a bit of
time on the DL hampered by a sore shoulder. The reports for 2012 so far are
positive, but reality won’t hit until Hanson has thrown in anger, which won’t
be before Opening Day. Also, it is one thing to be healthy at the start of the
season, but the big question is durability. A baseball season is 162 games, so
if the Braves are to contend, Hanson will need to pitch deep into September.

去年斧頭幫失利，很大原因是因為 Hanson 因為肩傷在DL待太久。目前看來是很樂觀，
不過這得看開季之後，有壓力的情況下投球，才能確定真實情況如何。
當然開季健康跟耐操是兩碼子事，棒球有162場比賽，所以Hanson必須能在九月還能投。

Pitcher health is always difficult to predict, but Hanson has had a history of
(minor) ailments. In 2010, he struggled with back pain as a result of a
deviated facet joint. The Braves' belief is that the back injury contributed to
the shoulder problem as he adjusted his mechanics slightly. In the offseason,
Hanson has worked on a comprehensive strengthening program that he hopes will
fix both issues.

投手的健康一直都是個未知數，不過Hanson一直都有小問題，像是2010的背痛之類的，
勇士球團認為他的背痛使他調整姿勢，然後引發後來的肩傷。
Hanson 希望能藉著新的重量訓練，能夠將兩個問題一起搞定。

However, if history is a guide, the odds are that Hanson won’t be able to stay
healthy all 2012. However, despite not adding anyone this offseason, the one
advantage the Tomahawks have in 2012 over 2011 is a much deeper pitcher bench
as some of the elite pitchers in the minor leagues become big-league ready.
Braves uber-prospects like Julio Teheran, Arodys Vizcaino and Randall Delgado
are all waiting in the wings if any of the starters end up on the DL.

如果歷史重演，Hanson 沒辦法健康出賽的話，其實勇士自家的投手群很深，尤其是很多
小聯盟練好，準備上大聯盟的高級新秀，Teharen、Vizcaino、Delgado 之類的，
都等著搶下一席先發。

Can Chipper Jones still be productive?
        - Chipper Jones 還能打嗎? 

At 39 years old, Chipper is certainly in the twilight of his career. Indeed,
this is likely his penultimate season in the majors as his contract is up at
the end of 2013. A few days ago, a rather unflattering photo of Chipper doing
his best Prince Fielder impression was flying around the Internet, casting
doubt on his ability to keep it together. Jones responded that he’s in the
better shape than he was this time last year, having dropped 10 pounds—now
weighing a svelte 225.

39歲高齡(?)，Chipper Jones 應該也差不多了，合約明年也該到期了。請看以下圖片，
( http://on.fb.me/zV9Peb ) 到底是 Chipper 在試著模仿小王子，還是身體跟不上了?
但是本人卻說他現在比去年的今天，感覺更良好。

The expectation is that Jones will be fortunate to play in 120 games this year;
over the last two seasons, he’s averaged 110 games and about 450 plate
appearances. Over the same time period, he has averaged a .350 wOBA, implying
there is little doubt he’ll be productive. However, it is worrying that he is
one the better hitters in the lineup, since he's not expected to be there
full-time.

普遍期望他今年能打120場就謝天謝地了，前兩年平均也才110場，大約450次打擊機會。
能打的時候他倒是繳出了0.350wOBA，不差的成績，不過不能正常上場這點很令人擔心，
因為他是隊上少數能打的....

Given Chipper’s career history, it is little surprise that the projection
systems converge around a consistent forecast, with the expectation is that he’
ll continue to deliver a .350 wOBA in 2012 and around 14 home runs. Arguably,
the bigger issue is health.

看一下Chipper的歷史，其實他的成績一直都維持在這個等級，所以最大問題還是健康。

Since 2005, Jones has only really had one injury-free season (in 2009 when he
racked up close to 600 plate appearances). In a way, he’s been fortunate that
he has only suffered niggles, but those add up and wear down the body. Chipper’
s projection doesn’t feel to have much upside, but it could have a lot of
downside. Let’s hope the Braves don’t need to rely on his bat too much.

從05年到現在，其實只有一年(09')沒有受傷過，這中間雖然很慶幸沒有大修，不過小傷
也慢慢的在影響Chipper的身體，使他沒甚麼進步空間，卻有很大的退步空間。
希望今年斧頭幫不要太依賴他才好。

What will be the final pecking order in the NL East?
        - 所以最後的排名會如何? 

As mentioned at the top of the article, the NL East will be among the toughest
divisions in baseball this year. The Phillies still have a star-studded
rotation and will contend, the Marlins have upgraded significantly, and the
Nationals have Stephen Strasburg back full time and Bryce Harper potentially
about to enter the fray.

像剛剛說的，國聯東區今年會很有趣，費城人還是星光閃閃，馬大魚集力補強，國民
則是有了兩大狀元 Strasburg 跟 Harper 加持 ( 梅子表示:.... )

A quick look at Vegaswatch gives us some over/unders. Vegas has the Phillies at
96 wins (incidentally, the best in baseball), the Braves at 86, the Marlins at
83, the Nationals on the line at 81 and the Mets at 75. Vegas also predicts the
first NL Wild Card winner will log 87 wins, so Atlanta is a genuine contender,
especially with a second Wild Card coming to fruition this year.

拉斯維加斯預測出費城(96)，勇士(86)，馬林魚(83)，國民(81)，大都會(75)的順序，
費城的96勝是大聯盟最佳。賭盤也預測國聯外卡需要87勝，所以勇士還是很有機會，尤其
今年有兩張外卡門票。

We need to be careful with win projections, and particularly Vegas lines, which
have a tendency to reflect betting patterns. The standard deviation of team
wins is around eight, which is large enough to make drawing conclusions a fool’
s game. That issue aside, the Braves are a young and improving team, and they
should have learned a lot from last year’s meltdown.

當然這些預測看看就好，尤其是這種攸關賭盤的預測。誤差值通常高達八場，所以現在
要猜誰贏實在很難說。不過勇士是個年輕有為的球隊，應該會從去年的悲劇學到教訓。

Dropping Derek Lowe while moving a few of the young arms into the rotation will
improve the pitching, and there is no reason to expect the pen will be anything
other than the "blue screen of death" for opponents. The big question is
batting and, frankly, I’m not sure it can be much worse than last year. The
Phillies likely will remain out of reach, but I’d bet my second house that the
Braves make October ball.

把 Derek Lowe 弄掉，啟用一些年輕投手，先發輪值會進步很多。
牛棚大概跟去年一樣，對手遇到他們就像遇到Windows藍底白字的當機畫面一樣，GG。
最大的問題是打擊，不過應該也不會比去年糟糕。
追上費城就不用想了，不過我用我未來的第二棟房子打賭，勇士十月應該有球打。


--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 137.82.7.43
推 adamyen:最後一句話看得出來作者仍然很樂觀XD
推 BrettCecil:不過看到 Chipper Jones 那張圖.. XD
推 synchron:簡單的說, 勇士的情況就在於Heyward, Chipper, Hanson
→ synchron:and bullpen, 不過我個人是覺得去年勇士的進攻
→ synchron:真的是那個該死的Larry Parish(打教), 去年勇士只要曾經
→ synchron:陷入低潮的打者, 印象中只有Chipper靠他自己爬了出來
→ synchron:McCann, Prado, Heyward, 都是一路死到底了...
→ synchron:另外問我個人意見的話, 勇士今年的每個球員都有疑問,
→ Roawen:今年有機會國東墊底...
推 a127n:國聯東的對手今年好可怕
推 Roawen:如果Heyward只能打出文內預測的成績 是比新人年還差的 那
→ Roawen:勇士今年大概又要葛屁了..
推 starcry:金寶的速球跟滑球不只是不錯吧
改的真實一點好了 XD
推 iam28:Chipper的打教一直都是他爸  所以球隊打教是誰對他沒差XD
※ 編輯: celipliz        來自: 96.48.247.175        (03/07 14:10)
推 ImpactBlue:牛棚投到80局實在很屌
推 XDXDXDD:勇士啾竟能不能找到好打教呢