2012 Five questions: Chicago CUBS 上

[Jerryamd (Let's go cubbies)]

Pop quiz question: What can Cubs fans look for in 2012?
2013.
But that's too easy. Let's go to the essay part.

先來個隨堂考吧: 熊迷們對2012會有甚麼期待呢 ?
Ans: 明年再來吧

好吧這樣就交搞太簡單了，還是來騙騙搞費吧。

How bad was the team Theo Epstein and his makeover artists took over this
offseason?

Theo 和他的藝術家們(化妝師?)這季面對的處境到底有多遭呢 ?

Last summer, you could make the case (I did) that the Cubs, who've been
around as long as the National League has, were on pace to their worst
statistical season ever. Then they caught fire. Well, they struck a match in
a cave. In July, they finally won three in a row, sweeping Houston, by far
the worst team in baseball in 2011. By season's end, they almost caught the
always-tough Pirates for fourth place in a six-team division. They won 71,
lost 91.

上個夏天，你可以(最起碼我做了)對小熊做點評估，一個跟國家聯盟存在了多久小熊就活
了多久的球隊，在去年正一步步的走向史上最糟的球季。然後它們就被火燒了(???)，
Well，它們在洞穴裡點亮了火柴。小熊在七月終於贏得了一次三連勝，橫掃了太空人，
2011 聯盟成績最爛的球隊。到了球季結束時，小熊幾乎追上了"強悍的"海盜，一個在中
區六隊裡排名第四的球隊。小熊最後贏了 71 場輸了 91 場。

The pitching was awful, 14th in the league in ERA+ at 90, worst in bases on
balls per nine at 3.6, 14th in runs allowed at 4.67. Before the first half
was over, four putative starters were on the disabled list, and a fifth, Ryan
Dempster, was hurting. One-sixth of the Cubs' starts in 2011 went to three
members of the 35-years-and-over club who were in no way part of the team's
preseason plans, retreads Rodrigo Lopez, Doug Davis and Ramon Ortiz.

投手投得爛透了，在聯盟裡以 ERA+ 90 的成績排名第 14，最爛的保送率 BB/9 = 3.6。
每九局被得分 4.67 排聯盟第 14。在球季前半結束時，四名預計先發的投手都在傷兵名
單，第五個，蛋皮，也受了點傷。小熊整季有 1/6 的先發是靠3個35歲以上的大叔，
Rodrigo Lopez, Doug Davis 和 Ramon Ortiz，這3位沒有一個是在賽季開始前的球員名
單裡。

In the division-winning years of 2007 and 2008, the Cubs gave up the
second-fewest runs in the National League. They fell to 12th in 2009, 13th in
2010 and 14th last season.

在 2007 和 2008 年贏得分區冠軍的小熊，他們丟了聯盟第二少的分數。2009年跌到了第
12，2010 第13，上一季更跌到了第 14 名。

The defense maybe was worse (and a contributing factor to the bad pitching
records). Per Baseball-Reference.com, the Cubs were dead last in the league
in defensive efficiency (.678), in defensive runs saved (-37) and in errors
(134, which was 16 more than any other team).

或許是因為防守變差了(防守因素會讓投手丟掉一些分數)，小熊在上一季的防守效率是聯
盟最爛的(0.678)，defensive runs saved (-37) 和失誤( 134,比任何一個球隊都多了
 16 次)。

So the others teams' half-innings overwhelmed what was a league-average
offense, albeit one that that was pretty much station-to-station, scorning
bases on balls (only Houston took fewer) and that kind of tofu baseball. From
that 2011 powerhouse, they've spent the offseason offloading their two OPS
leaders, the only two over 111 OPS+ among the regulars. They've replaced
their flawed but predictable corner infielders with flawed but unpredictable
players.
So this season they could be even worse. And that's probably a good thing.
Which leads us to:

所以在另一個半局的時候，即使對方球隊只有聯盟平均的攻擊指數，卻還是可以壓倒性的
對付小熊，雖然那只是一戰一戰的打下，靠著壞球上壘得分(只有太空人沒拿到)，小熊這
打得像豆腐般的棒球。從 2011 的 Powerhouse裡，小熊在球季後放走了兩個 OPS leader
，球隊裡唯二 OPS+ 超過 111 的人。小熊把有缺陷但是還可以預測的角落內野手換成了
有缺陷但沒辦法預測的球員。所以這個球季小熊可能會打得更爛，但這或許會是好事。因
為這會帶領我們進入下面的問題。

Is the Cubs' new management on the right track?

小熊的新任經理會讓球隊走在正確的道路上嗎 ?

It's the only possible track. Under deposed general manager Jim Hendry, the
Cubs saw some tread still on the tires of the 2003 almost-there team, made
some fixes, and produced division champions in 2007 and 2008. By that time,
though, the wear was evident; six of the eight position starters in 2008 were
age 30-plus, and the four main starting pitchers were either well-worn
veterans or Carlos Zambrano.
By then, it was too late for patches, but patch the Cubs did, and the result
was last year's blowout. Now, it's time to throw the old tires away and start
over with new ones, produced by modern technology.

這是唯一有可能的道路。在被火掉的金含吉的帶領之下，小熊依稀看到了那差一點成功的
的 2003 年，再做了些調整後於 07 和 08 年拿下了分區冠軍。但在那時候，明顯的，8
個先發裡面有6 個年紀超過了30 歲，而四名主要的先發投手分別是有名的老兵還有大Z。
到了 08 年，要補強已經太晚了。雖然小熊還是試著補強了一下，但結果就是去年的大爆
炸。現在，是時候該把 03 年的模式丟了，以現代科技為基礎開始找尋新的通往成功的道
路。

That's certainly the direction new management is going. The Cubs, who got in
this hole by tying themselves to aging players with expensive, sometimes
long-term, contracts, are jettisoning those with both hands. Off go Aramis
Ramirez, Zambrano, Carlos Pena, John Grabow, and Sean Marshall. Kosuke
Fukudome was shipped to the American League last summer.
That's a lot of established major leaguers out the door. With some of them
and some more duct tape, the Cubs maybe could have been a close-to-.500 team
this season, but to what purpose?

這是現任經理試著要做的事。小熊，一支被年老的，昂貴的，長期的合約綁住雙手的球隊
，試圖著想要掙脫枷鎖。送走了拉米，大Z，Pena，Grabow，Marshall，福留，這些人在
去年夏天被送到了美聯。
這些都是些有用的大聯盟球員，有以上部分的人再補強一些洞的話，小熊或許可以在今年
有一個五成勝率的球季，但是這樣有甚麼用呢 ?

If you follow the Cubs at all, you know about Zambrano, who joined Milton
Bradley and Sammy Sosa as 21st-century Cubs whose attitudes should be retired
like so many Ernie Banks No. 14 jerseys.
Pena wasn't responsible for Team Turmoil, but he wasn't the future for a
rebuilding second-division club. Grabow was an expensive mistake. Ditto
Fukudome. Marshall was a luxury, an ace setup man on a losing team who was
about to get more expensive. And Ramirez?

如果你一直有在關注小熊，那你應該很了解大Z。他的態度和 Bradley 與 Sosa 一樣應該
要被退休。
Pena 不應該對球隊的混亂負責，但他不是重建中的球隊的未來。Grabow是個昂貴的錯誤
。福留也是個昂貴的錯誤。Marshall 可以當作王牌中繼，但是太奢侈了，而且也越來越
貴。而拉米呢 ??

For the past few years, Ramirez has seemed one jog down to first base away
from the disabled list even when he's been playing. He has averaged 118 games
per year over the last three seasons and has spent much of his time on the
field waving at ground balls; it's generally conceded that his offense is
what separates him from American Legion ball. But even that is open to
criticism, and criticize did Cubs broadcast analyst Bob Brenly after the Cubs
allowed Ramiriez to walk away.
"He's a numbers gatherer. He gets his stats at the end of the year, every
year, but defensively he's just fallen off the face of the earth. As a
baserunner, he kills you, he's a log jammer on the bases, and I'm not buying
any of this leadership for Starlin Castro stuff at all."
So the Cubs did their spring cleaning this winter. By next offseason, the
Cubs will be obligated to just two holdovers from the Hendry era—Alfonso
Soriano, whose interminable contract will terminate after 2014, and closer
Carlos Marmol (signed through 2013).

在過去的數年裡，拉米似乎像事是個為了避免受傷而漫步上一壘的人。他在過去三年裡平
均每年出賽 118 場，並且在場上花了許多時間對著滾地球揮手。唯一能把他跟業餘棒球
區別出來的大概只有他的攻擊了吧。即使是這樣還是被一些人攻擊。小熊的廣播員 Bob
Brenly 在拉米走路以後這樣說：

"他是個數字的收集者，他會在球季末有一些數字，每一年都這樣。但是他也只是在慢慢
走下坡(不太確定語意)。以一個跑壘者來說，他會讓你想死。在壘上他是個會阻礙你的人
，而我一點都不想為了這種 Castro 般的特質付錢。"

所以小熊在冬天為了來年做了些清倉，到了今年的季末，小熊只會有兩個金含吉的爛約。
索爺的約會到 2014 年，還有馬毛到 2013 的約。


________________________________________________

晚點繼續.....lol

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 98.164.213.206
※ 編輯: Jerryamd        來自: 98.164.213.206       (03/13 10:34)
推 GodHelpMe:清光緒138年  小熊終於獲得世界冠軍
推 Roshiel:究竟Theo要花多少時間重建呢？
推 sulaIX:小熊會先拿冠軍還是火鳳會先畫到赤壁之戰哩?
→ Apolina:馬毛的約是2013結束~不是2013開始
推 Timon1025:馬毛今天又炸了 哀
推 wildmemory:小熊今年拿冠軍
推 globekiller:原來火鳳還沒到赤壁之戰喔@@
推 OneCell:清光光好
推 tuxpen:失誤那部份 國聯第二爛是HOU的116 美聯最爛是OAK 124
→ tuxpen:總之都不是原作者的差16次
推 recky04:火鳳剛打完官渡
推 sylviehsiang:THEO又不是神 沒個三年好不起來吧
推 maxspeed150:小熊目前是百廢待舉啊....過去幾年Hendry亂搞的惡果
※ 編輯: Jerryamd        來自: 98.164.213.206       (03/13 13:55)
推 Roshiel:所以說要看Theo花多少時間重建啊，三年重建的完嗎？
推 fetoyeh:2015年!!
→ proletariat:Wait till next year!
→ rayven:小熊為什麼拿不到選秀狀元？
推 nickofbsb:因為他們觀念還不夠
→ leritas:就不上不下 要嘛爛的徹底
推 CarlosPena:推
推 shawshien:I'm not buying any of this leadership for Starlin
→ shawshien:Castro stuff
→ shawshien:是指他(球評)不相信關於拉米帶領教導Castro這樣的說法
→ Jerryamd:推樓上各位大大的修改...
推 JohnH:Then they caught fire應該是指開始爆發...