[THT] 2009 Five Questions: Oakland Athletics

[YGJHSU (杰)]

Five Questions: Oakland Athletics
by Sal Baxamusa

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/five-questions-oakland-athletics3/

: It's a mis-named series, since I've only got four questions. Still, on behalf
: of all Oakland partisans, I ask:

標題與內容不符：我(原作者)只有準備四個問題。

儘管如此，我還是要代表忠誠的綠帽迷問:

1. Who's going to be "your boy" this year?

今年你的男孩是誰啊?

: Every year, I dub an Oakland Athletic "my boy." Whenever that player does
: something good, I run around the house screaming like an idiot, "That's my
: boy!" Past recipients of this dubious honor have been Bobby Crosby, Nick
: Swisher, Chad Gaudin, and—most embarassingly—Esteban Loaiza. My track
: record may not be great, but in sabermetrics it is the process that matters
: more than the result. Soldier on, I must!

每年我都把一位綠帽球員冊封為"我的男孩",每當他有好表現的時候，我就會繞著我屋子邊

跑邊大叫，"我的男孩好棒!"，像個蠢蛋一樣。過去幾年的獲獎名單有: Bobby Crosby、

Nick Swisher、Chad Gaudin，還有--最羞於啟齒的，Esteban Loaiza。我選人的眼光也許

不是那麼好，不過以數據派的觀點來看，過程比結果更重要。因此，我必須堅持下去!

: This year, my boy is going to be Dallas Braden. Despite having been on the
: radar seemingly forever, Braden is only 25 years old. Over the last two
: years, he has struck out well over a batter per inning at Triple-A while
: walking about 2.2 batters per nine. His stuff is dubious, except for a
: mysterious screwball that he may or may not throw, but he deserves a shot at
: the rotation. He'll likely get one this year, and while he's not an All-Star,
: he could be worth up to two wins if he starts full-time. Getting that type of
: production from your non-prospects means not having to overpay for a guy like
: Oliver Perez.

今年，我的男孩將會是Dallas Braden。雖然Braden似乎永遠都很受矚目，他卻只有25歲。

過去兩個球季，他在3A球隊每局可以三振超過一個打者，BB/9是2.2。除了一顆他不知道會
譯註:過去兩年Braden在3A的K/9分別是10.4(07)跟9.1(08)

不會投的神秘螺旋球之外，他的球威令人質疑。儘管如此，他仍然能在輪值圈中佔有一席

之地，今年看起來蠻有機會的。如果他能夠整季出賽的話，雖然不會投出全星星級的表現

卻能讓球隊多贏兩場球(譯註：應是相較於replacement level而言)。能夠從不是期待新秀

的球員中獲得這樣的表現，代表球隊GM不用砸大錢去簽下Oliver Perez這種球員了。

2.Are the A's collecting the 2002 All-Star team?

綠帽在收集2002全星星公仔隊嗎?

: If so, Jason Giambi and Nomar Garciaparra are a nice start. Oakland also made
: an ultimately unsuccessful play for Randy Johnson.

如果是這樣的話，Jason Giambi跟Nomar Garciaparra是一個不錯的開始。同時，綠帽也有

在競逐Randy Johnson，只可惜最後失敗了。

: Remember when plugging holes with declining veterans was sabermetric
: anathema? Times have changed. Three or four years ago, multi-year deals for a
: guy like Jason Giambi would have been the norm. Think of the contracts that
: Jay Payton and Kevin Millar got. One-year contracts mitigate a lot of the
: risks involved with veteran gambits.

記住：如果想把年年走下坡的老將塞進球隊的缺口裡，只會帶來一場數據浩劫。

時代改變了。三四年前，跟Jason Giambi這種球員簽下長約根本就是天經地義。

想想Jay Payton跟Kevin Millar拿到的合約吧! 一年約大大降低了使用老將的風險。

: For the A's, Garciaparra is a non-Hannahanian hedge against the
: never-quite-right Eric Chavez. Orlando Cabrera, while nothing special, won't
: tilt the scales at zero wins above replacement, which once-and-future-MVP
: Bobby Crosby is liable to do. The A's, hoping to compete this year while they
: have Matt Holliday under contract, are doing the right thing. The downside is
: that, come next offseason, the A's will again be scrambling for solutions on
: the left side of the infield.

對綠帽來說，Garciaparra能讓反對Hannahan上場的人，除了"總是不太好"的Eric Chavez

之外有其他的選擇。Orlando Cabrera，儘管並不特別，卻不會像"前新人王"Bobby Crosby

一樣，成為球隊的拖油瓶。綠帽抓進了合約即將到期的Matt Holliday，希望今年能夠闖進

季後賽。依我看來，他們做的一點都沒錯。唯一的煩惱是，他們明年還是要尋找左外野的

答案。

3.Has Jason Giambi ever been to Oakland?

技安比曾到過奧克蘭嗎?

: The Giambi signing makes a little less sense. Daric Barton isn't nearly the
: hitter Giambi is, but there's a decently-sized defensive gap. I wasn't a fan
: of the Giambi signing initially, considering it a lateral move at best, but
: I'm starting to come around. A little time at Triple-A could do Barton some
: good, and it's not likely that Giambi and Travis Buck are going to be healthy
: all the time anyhow. Barton will get a chance to contribute this year, and
: the Giambi signing is more about depth for the inevitable rash of injuries
: than it is an end to Barton's Oakland career.

相較之下，簽下Giambi就顯得有些奇怪。Daric Barton在打擊上當然不能跟Giambi相提並

論，不過防守上他跟Giambi相比勝出不只一籌。我一開始並不太喜歡簽下技安，認為最多

只是個水平移動，談不上什麼大作用。不過我現在開始改觀了：在3A多待一下下，對於

Barton來說不是壞事，Giambi跟Buck也不可能整季都健康出賽。因此，Barton還是有機會

偷到一些上場時間，對球隊做出貢獻。綠帽簽下Giambi，並不代表Barton在綠帽的日子就

此終結，而是對於無可避免的傷病問題所採取加強深度的一著棋。

: And Giambi gets to follow in the footsteps of Mike Piazza and Frank Thomas,
: two other late-career sluggers the A's signed in the past few years. But
: Giambi is also very different than those two because of his previous history
: in Oakland. He was the central figure on the early-decade Oakland
: juggernauts. No Oakland fan will forget his walk-off homer against Mike
: Stanton, capping a late-August sweep of the dreaded Yankees and putting the
: exclamation mark on an 11-game winning streak. Giambi was supposed to the
: lead the A's to the promised land, past the Yankees, and into the World
: Series. Instead, he signed with the enemy. He went on Letterman and said bad
: things about Oakland. He was booed mercilessly in Oakland. I was there. I
: booed, too.

Giambi追隨前輩Mike Piazza跟Frank Thomas的腳步，成為近年來在生涯末期加入綠帽的

第三位重砲。但是Giambi又跟前面兩位很不一樣，因為他是鳳還巢。在21世紀前幾年的

綠帽王朝中，Giambi扮演著不可或缺的重要角色。沒有綠帽迷會忘記他從Mike Stanton手

中擊出的再見全壘打，在八月下旬橫掃萬惡洋基，為綠帽11連勝譜上大大的驚嘆號。

Giambi本來應該帶領綠帽前往應許之地，跨過洋基打進世界大賽。相反地，他最後投奔敵

營，並且投書狂表綠帽。於是，他在奧克蘭被狂噓，我就在那裏，我也跟著噓。

: There's a certain bit of karmic retribution, then, to have Giambi come back
: to Oakland, ringless as the day he left for New York. Get on the field and
: earn your way back into my heart, G.

Giambi必須經歷一段陣痛期，那些對他的批評。然後，就如同他指上無環出發前往紐約

的那一天一樣，他回來了。上場去贏回我的心吧! 大吉

4.Do the A's seriously think they can catch the Angels?

綠帽真以為自己能追上天使嗎?

: They do, and they're not crazy to think so. The answer has little to do with
: the individual team rosters. Excuse me for a minute while I totally geek out.

確實如此，同時他們的想法並不瘋狂。答案跟25人名單其實沒有太大關係。各位看倌

且容我慢慢道來。

: Teams have some level of true talent, and analysts try to determine what that
: talent is. That true talent could be dynamic. That true talent might be
: calculated exactly by BaseRuns and Pythagoras, or it might be hard to know
: because a team has the clutchiest players who ever did clutch. It doesn't
: really matter how a team wins game, as long as we recognize that some teams
: are better at it than others.

每一隊都有他們各自的真本事，分析家試著把這些本領抓出來。但是球技是動態的。也許

我們可以用BaseRuns或是Pythagoras把球隊之間的強弱算出，不過如果一隊有著在關鍵時

刻就會爆發的所有球員，那麼分析就不準了。一旦我們體會到某些球隊真的很強之後，

他們到底是怎麼贏球，就沒有那麼重要了。

: When we look past the homers, the drama, and—yes—the fun, the baseball
: season is just a collection of weighted coin tosses. In any given 162-game
: trial, a 90-win team could win 90 times, and on average it will. But
: sometimes it will win 95 or 100 games, or maybe only 85. If a 90-win team
: wins only 85 games it doesn't mean that it is unlucky or unclutch. It just
: is, and it's something that a lot of baseball fans have a hard time
: accepting. By the same token, an inferior team—say, an 81-win team—can win
: 90 games in a 162-game trial.

當我們忽略那些全壘打啊、劇場啊、還有--沒錯--所有有趣的東西時，棒球球季就只是

一連串丟擲硬幣結果再做加權的集合罷了。在所有162場比賽的嘗試裡，一支90勝的球隊可

能剛好贏90場，就跟平均一樣。不過有時候這支球隊也有可能贏到95~100場，或者是85場

如果一支90勝的球隊只有贏85場，這並不表示這支球隊帶衰，或者是關鍵時刻熄火。這只

是代表很多棒球迷無法接受這樣的事實。同樣地，一支比較差的球隊，比方說81勝吧，

也有可能贏到90勝。

: So, there's a possbility that a .500 team out-wins a .550 team over the
: course of a season. How likely is it? I worked this problem out a few years
: ago, and I'll spare you the details, but the answer is about 1-in-6.

所以，一支季初預測.500勝率的球隊最後戰績比季初預測.550勝率的球隊好也是有可能的

機率有多大呢？我幾年前有做過這樣的研究，省略掉細節，機率大約是1/6。

: Are the Angels a better team than the A's? Probably. How much? That's up for
: debate. A reasonable estimate is that the A's are between four and six games
: worse than their rivals to the north. In that case, the A's stand about a 30
: percent chance of winning the division.

猴子軍團有比綠帽更好嗎? 或許吧! 好多少? 這就有得吵了。一個合理的估計是綠帽預測

戰績大概比他們北方的敵人少了4~6場勝場。這樣的話，綠帽大約有30%的機會贏下分區。

: Maybe you think all the numbers make me a killjoy. I beg to differ. The
: numbers show that, even when one team is clearly better, there's still a
: pretty good chance that we get the unexpected result. When teams are within a
: few games of each other, we've officially entered too-close-to-call
: territory. And, to me at least, that's what makes it so much fun.

或許你覺得這些數字讓人十分掃興。讓我來澄清一下。數字顯示，即使是一支球隊明顯

比較好，仍然有相當高的機會產生讓人意想不到的結果。當兩支球隊實力只差幾場比賽

的時候，我們就正式進入了"膠著到難以判斷"的地步。至少，對我來說，這就是棒球迷人

之處。

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc)
◆ From: 140.112.243.242
推 chrislux:聽起來今年綠帽大有可為?
推 wzbird:這裡的劇場也是指牛棚驚魂記嗎? 我以為這是日本人的用法
※ A1pha:轉錄至看板 Athletics                                      03/21 17:17
推 Sakar:推：這就是棒球的迷人之處～
推 partty:推好文
→ A1pha:感謝翻譯 ：D
推 kenny781558:猴子迷心聲:今年綠帽不容小覷
※ 編輯: YGJHSU          來自: 140.112.243.242      (03/21 19:41)
推 Levi:綠帽北方的敵人......應該只有水兵吧！  XD
推 okinawa8:於是，他在奧克蘭被狂噓，我就在那裏，我也跟著噓。 XDD
推 ThomasHSNU:推 其實預測已經跟猴子差不多了..THT輸2場 PECOTA贏1場