[情報] 2009 AL Central Win Projections

[Belladonaa ()]

http://www.twinkietown.com/2009/1/8/713890/2009-al-central-win-projec

Method:

1) For the Twins, I used my projected PA/IP allocations across each position.
   Feel free to weigh in if you disagree. For other teams, I started with the
   ESPN depth charts and made a few mods of my own.

2) Projected wOBA is based on a subjective combination of Bill James and CHONE,
   using Marcel to bump or down a bit.

3) Projected baserunning is also subjective, but I've got data from 2008 to
   justify most of the +/- 0.25 values.

4) Projected defense is based on UZR/150 over the past few years for the player
   at the given position. I tried not to be too extreme one way or the other
   with the defensive ratings.

5) ERA is generally based on Bill James and Marcel projected xFIP, adjusted up
   or down using CHONE projections.


Findings:

Based on these projections, Cleveland is the early favorite to win the
division. There's a long way to go before Spring Training or Opening Day
though.

                    wins
Cleveland Indians   91.5
Minnesota Twins     88.0
Detroit Tigers      87.4
Chicago White Sox   80.0
Kansas City Royals  79.9

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pO3dbhlV3dGR7GlCfzmbaYQ&hl=en

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