http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=10085
by John Perrotto
The St. Louis Cardinals coasted to the National League Central title
last year, finishing a full seven games in front of the Chicago Cubs,
who were considered the heavy favorite to three-peat as the division
champs coming into last spring.
The Cardinals will have an even easier time of winning the division this
season, according to PECOTA, Baseball Prospectus' proprietary formula
that predicts player performance. If the system is right, the Cardinals
will be the only NL Central team to even have a winning record.
The Cardinals are projected to win the division by nine games, which
would give them plenty of time after the clincher to set up their
postseason roster in an attempt to erase last year's disappointment of
being swept by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League Division
Series. Yes, it's certainly a case of putting the cart in front of the
horse to predict September champagne-popping days in February, but
that's what makes this time of the year so much fun for baseball fans.
St. Louis Cardinals: 88-74 projected 2010 record
Why They Might Win: PECOTA projects them to give up an NL-low 653 runs
with a rotation fronted by Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright -- along
with a bullpen that features All-Star closer Ryan Franklin. They also
have a fellow named Albert Pujols, who happens to be among the best
players in the game.
Why They Might Not Win: Carpenter has a lot of wins on his resume but
also a lot of innings and a lot of arm problems. The lineup drops off
significantly beyond Pujols and Matt Holliday.
Player Who Could Surprise: Center fielder Colby Rasmus is pegged to hit
22 home runs by PECOTA, up from 16 last season, and he has the raw
talent to put up even bigger numbers.
Player Who Could Disappoint: David Freese is projected to hit just 12
home runs with a .254 average, which would make the Cardinals' decision
not to acquire a veteran third baseman in the offseason look bad.
Chicago Cubs: 79-83 projected 2010 record
Why They Might Win: They have as much star power as any team in the
division with Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez and
Alfonso Soriano. They are also, uh, sort of overdue for some good luck
considering it's been 102 years since their last World Series victory.
Why They Might Not Win: The Cubs have a lot of players who have become
injury-prone as they are getting older. Lilly might not be ready to
start the season after undergoing shoulder surgery in November and that
will be a bigger obstacle for the Cubs to overcome than some might
think.
Player Who Could Surprise: You get the feeling Carlos Marmol doesn't
have Lou Piniella's complete faith as the fiery manager screwed around
with Kevin Gregg as the closer for most of last season. Marmol will be
the closer this season and PECOTA sees him doing just fine, with a 32-
save year.
Player Who Could Disappoint: Soriano is on the decline and PECOTA thinks
his days as a premier player are long gone, projecting him to hit 19
home runs and steal nine bases, and making that 40-40 season with the
Nationals in 2006 seem like eons ago.
Milwaukee Brewers: 78-84 projected 2010 record
Why They Might Win: Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun form a fearsome duo in
the middle of the lineup and the Brewers have hitters who can hurt you
up and down the lineup. New pitching coach Rick Peterson should bring a
fresh approach.
Why They Might Not Win: Even PECOTA doesn't think Peterson can work
miracles with the talent on hand. It projects the Brewers to give up an
NL-worst 777 runs despite signing left-handers Randy Wolf and Doug Davis
as free agents to stabilize the rotation and LaTroy Hawkins to serve as
all-time saves leader Trevor Hoffman's set-up man.
Player Who Could Surprise: Outfielder Jim Edmonds is attempting a
comeback after sitting out last season and PECOTA believes he can still
help in a limited role with projections of a .353 on base percentage and
a 496 slugging percentage.
Player Who Could Disappoint: Wolf is projected to have a mediocre year,
going 9-9 with a 4.33 ERA, not what the Brewers are expecting after
signing him to a three-year, $29.75-year contract.
Houston Astros: 77-85 projected 2010 record
Why They Might Win: They still have remnants of their glory days, with
Roy Oswalt leading the rotation and Lance Berkman anchoring a strong
middle of the lineup that also includes superstar-in-waiting Hunter
Pence and reliable run producer Carlos Lee. New manager Brad Mills is
well-regarded in the game, something that couldn't necessarily be said
in the Astros' clubhouse about his predecessor, Cecil Cooper.
Why They Might Not Win: The rotation falls off considerably after Oswalt
and Wandy Rodriguez and the bullpen is riddled with question marks. The
falloff is just as steep in the lineup beyond Berkman, Pence, Lee and
Michael Bourns.
Player Who Could Surprise: J.R. Towles has flubbed multiple
opportunities to be the everyday catcher but PECOTA pegs him to be a
respectable starter this time, hitting .253 with 10 home runs.
Player Who Could Disappoint: Matt Lindstrom has teased talent evaluators
with his 100-mph fastball for a long time but he projects to be no
better with his new team than he was with the Florida Marlins. PECOTA
predicts a 4.35 ERA as Brandon Lyon's primary set-up man.
Cincinnati Reds : 77-85 projected 2010 record
Why They Might Win: They have a solid starting rotation, fronted by
veterans Bronson Arroyo and Aaron Harang and including young talents
like Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey and, at some point, Edinson Volquez,
when he recovers from Tommy John surgery. They also have one of the more
athletic teams in the league.
Why They Might Not Win: Because they never win anymore; the once-model
franchise is on a streak of nine consecutive losing seasons. They have
some players who are stars or potential star such as Brandon Phillips,
Joey Votto, Jay Bruce and Cueto but lack overall depth in the
organization.
Player Who Could Surprise: Bruce is expected to hit .275 with 32 home
runs by PECOTA after having his 2009 season -- his first full year in
the majors -- ruined by a broken right wrist.
Player Who Could Disappoint: Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman is projected
to have a 4.27 ERA with 93 strikeouts in 72 innings. Normally, that
would be a good rookie season, but the expectations are huge for the
hard-throwing left-hander in the Queen City after he signed a $30
million contract in the offseason.
Pittsburgh Pirates : 72-90 projected 2010 record
Why They Might Win: They have some intriguing young players, led by
Andrew McCutchen, who showed the look of a potential superstar as a
rookie last season. They have the makings of a solid starting rotation
with no member older than 27.
Why They Might Not Win: Well, they're the Pirates -- owners of the all-
time North American major professional sports record streak of 17
consecutive losing seasons. They lack a true thumper for the batting
order, a true top-of-the-rotation starter and a true closer.
Player Who Could Surprise: After frustrating the New York Mets and
Washington Nationals, left fielder Lastings Milledge is ready to finally
put things together in his first full season in Pittsburgh, according to
PECOTA; the system pegs him to hit .277 with 18 home runs and 20 stolen
bases.
Player Who Could Disappoint: Right-hander Ross Ohlendorf is projected to
go 7-9 with a 4.48 ERA. That would shave four victories and add 56
points to his ERA from last year, his first full season as a starter.
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