[翻譯] 到底該不該揮第一球呢？

[zkow (澹如秋水貧中味)]

Swinging or taking on the first pitch
by James Gentile
August 23, 2013

Swinging at the first pitch can be a bit of a controversial topic in some
corners of the baseball world. To many fans, the practice of casually watching
strike one float through the heart of the zone again and again seems
ridiculous. But for certain players, like Hall of Famer Wade Boggs and more
recently Minnesota's Joe Mauer, laying off the first pitch is a fundamental
tenet of their approach at the plate.

是否要揮第一球在棒球界是個頗具爭議性議題。對很多球迷來說，看著第一球直穿好球帶
中心而不揮擊是件荒謬的事情，但是對部分球員來說，比如說名人堂球星 Wade Boggs 跟
近代的大明星 Joe Mauer，放過第一球是個他們打擊策略的基本原則。

Recently, the wonderful data-crunchers at FanGraphs showed us that swing rate
on first pitch has dropped significantly since 1988, when pitch sequence data
first became publicly available. In recent seasons batters have offered at the
first pitch just 26 percent of the time, compared to the far more aggressive
rate of 33 percent from the late '80s.

最近，FanGraph的數據蒐擊者們統計顯示，打者揮擊第一球的比率自從 1988 年後大幅的
下滑。最近幾個球季，打者攻擊第一球的機率是 26%，相較於 80 年代的 33%有著顯著的
差異
。

This shouldn't really surprise us, since there has been a definite movement
toward patience at the plate in the last few decades. Tom Verducci famously
bemoaned this loss of hitter aggressiveness earlier this season, and many
continue to echo his concerns.

大家應該都不會對此驚訝，畢竟過去十多年來，強調選球跟耐心的浪潮不斷衝擊棒球界。
Tom Verducci早前的文章感嘆了現在打者越來越被動，而他的看法收到許多回響。

But batters have consistently shown that laying off that first pitch can lead
to better results— or, more accurately, better results are observed in cases
where the batter did not swing at the first pitch. From 1988-2012, the ultimate
wOBA of all plate appearances where the batter swung at first pitch has
remained consistently lower than those when batter did not offer at the first
opportunity:

但是打者們用成績告訴我們放掉第一球可以帶給他們更好的結果，數據顯示不打第一球時
打者的成績卻實較佳。在 1988 到 2012 年間，攻擊第一球的 ultimate wOBA都持續的低
於放過第一球。

Obviously, most of the "advantage" of laying off first pitch we're seeing here
is generated by those at-bats in which the batter takes a ball on first pitch.
Getting a 1-0 advantage on the pitcher right away creates an enormous
difference on the ultimate fate of the batter-pitcher showdown.


從圖表中很名顯的，放過第一球帶來的優是主要來自於第一球是壞球且被放掉時。0 好 1
壞的球數落後對於投打對決帶來了巨大的差異。

So, naturally, taking a called strike on first pitch leads to fewer favorable
outcomes for hitters than taking a ball. But swinging at that first pitch leads
to better results than falling behind 0-1 on a taken called strike.

當然了，放過第一球但結果是好球就沒那麼大的好處了。數據顯示第一球是好球時大膽揮
擊，結果往往好於放過去讓球數落後。

Let's not forget that BABIP on 0-0 counts is fairly high when compared to other
counts. Perhaps pitchers tend to groove first pitch more often to get ahead,
perhaps they take a little off their velocity, perhaps the cut flattens out a
bit (this is certainly an interesting idea for a PITCHf/x study for another
day). Whatever the case, swinging at first pitch seems to give a hitter better
odds than falling into an 0-1 deficit.

不要忘了攻擊第一球的 BABIP相較於在其他球數下揮擊高了許多。或許投手們為了拿到球
數領先在投球時較為大膽。或許球速放慢點，或許尾勁不會催的那麼強 (這是個值得研究
的好問題)不論如何，攻擊第一球似乎都比落後一個好球隊打者來說更為有利。

Outliers
There are always outliers. A few players in the last few decades have actually
fared worse when they swung at the first pitch than when they fell in the 0-1
hole. The five most dramatic cases from 2002-2012 are as follows:

凡事總有例外。過去數十年，有幾名打者揮擊第一個好球時的成績差逾放過去而在球數上
落後。2002到 2012 年間差距最大的五名球員：

#       Name    PA   First pitch swing% wOBA first pitch swinging  wOBA_first pi
called strike Difference

1       Aaron Guiel     1098    15.8%   0.233   0.330   -0.097
2       Reggie Willits  1011    7.1%    0.182   0.271   -0.089
3       Roberto Alomar  1435    18.8%   0.250   0.328   -0.078
4       Charles Johnson 1106    36.5%   0.285   0.360   -0.075
5       Jamey Carroll   3965    11.1%   0.235   0.299   -0.064

Strangely, both Charles Johnson and Roberto Alomar actually had higher wOBAs
when taking first pitch strike than when taking first pitch balls! (Though for
Alomar, this is including only the last few seasons of his career. His splits
make more sense when looking at his over 9,000 plate appearances). As much as
I'd love to say we've discovered some mutant-like batting styles, it's more
likely that these oddities would have corrected themselves with more at-bats.

奇怪的是，Charles Johnson 跟 Roberto Alomar 放過第一個壞球時的表現比放過第一個
好球時糟。( 儘管對於 Alomar 來說，這項數據只涵蓋了她最後幾個球季，如果考慮到更
大的樣本空間，那麼情況變得合理許多) 。儘管我很想說我們發現了甚麼打擊型態上的奧
秘，但這個奇怪的情況很可能在更多打數後自然就消失了。

Lowest first strike swing rates

You may have noticed that Reggie Willits, who just barely made the minimum
1,000 plate appearances required in the previous table, showed the most
patience of that group, with a minuscule first pitch swing rate of just seven
percent. This is actually an historic number, just barely edging out notorious
first-pitch-o-phobe Wade Boggs. From 1988-2012 the lowest rates belong to:

你可能注意到了 Reggie Willits ，他勉強答到了 1000 打席的門檻進入了上面那個表格
，在上述五名球員中是最有耐心的，揮擊第一球比率低到只有7%。事實上這個數字非常驚
人，甚至低於以打死不會第一球著名的 Wade Boggs 。在 1988 到 2012 年間揮擊第一球
比率最低的是

#       Name                    PA      First pitch swing%

1       Reggie Willits          1011    7.1%
2       Wade Boggs              6490    7.7%
3       Brett Gardner           1617    8.4%
4       J.J. Hardy              3937    8.4%
5       Ben Revere              1062    8.7%
6       Jeff Frye               2319    9.3%
7       Joe Mauer               4462    9.8%
8       Brian Downing           2411    9.9%
9       Jason Kendall           5322    10.2%
10      Franklin Gutierrez      2629    10.5%

 Boggs was certainly ahead of his time, ranking at the top of this list with
over 6,000 eligible plate appearences and all of them occurring before the turn
of the century. Only Brian Downing is similarly a member of this unique club
while also debuting almost two decades before the rest of the group. Other
active and famously patient hitters like Kevin Youkilis and Dustin Pedroia just
barely missed making the top ten.

Boggs 顯然超出了他的時代，他的 6000 個打席都是在新世紀前的事情。只有 Brian
Downing 跟他一樣比表中其他人早了將近 20 年。另外幾個以耐心著名的打者如 Kevin
Youkillis跟 Dustin Pedroia 以些微的差距落榜。

Who should swing more at the first pitch?

I want to briefly draw attention again to Mauer, number seven on the previous
table. Despite being one of the most averse to swinging at first pitches, with
a rate under 10 percent, he's one of the rare examples of a hitter who seems to
fare better when he does swing at them.

我想要回頭看一下 Joe Mauer，表中的第七名。儘管那麼少揮擊第一球，他是少數揮擊第
一球的數據比不揮時好的球員。

I briefly touched upon the possibility of this sort of phenomenon in one of my
earliest posts here at Hardball Times, when I looked at wOBA on contact for
players who rarely put the ball in play on first pitches.

我簡單的回顧一下我之前的文章，有關極少揮擊第一球的打者他們擊球後的 wOBA。

When looking at the nearly 600 batters with at least 1,000 plate appearances
from 2002-2012, Mauer's improvement of .038 wOBA points is the 17th highest of
that group. Yet, he's one of only two players to maintain that disparity in
over 2,000 plate appearances, and the only batter to do so with a first pitch
swing rate below 15 percent.

我觀察了 2002 到 2012 年間將近 600名至少 1000 打席的打者，Mauer 揮擊第一球的
wOBA 高出了 .038 ，在所有同類球員終排第 17 。但是，他是僅有的兩名出現此類現象
且超過2000 打席球員的球員之一，也是唯一一個揮擊第一球比率低於 15%的打者。

So what does this mean? Should Mauer try swinging at more first pitches? It
seems plausible to me that pitchers would not expect him to swing considering
his reputation. His ability to surprise pitchers on first pitch is an
advantage, but could he harness the potential of this ambush even more?

所以這代表甚麼呢？Mauer 應該更積極得揮第一球？對我來說，這個現象主要來自於他不
揮第一球的名聲帶給投手的影響。那麼，這個情況可以推廣嗎？

When I looked at the 32 batters from that same 2002-2012 time frame with a
first pitch swing rate below 15 percent and 1,000 PA, I found that the group
had an average wOBA .026 points lower than when they were taking on 0-0. So
Mauer is clearly unique in this regard.

我找了 2002 到 2012 年間超過 1000 打席且揮第一球比率低於 15%的打者共 32 人，這
群人打第一球時的 wOBA 比不打射低了 .026 ，可以說 Mauer顯然是個特例中的特例。

Most players who saw this much advantage swinging at the first pitch had much
more robust first pitch swing rates. Buster Posey is one notable example of this
—he swings at over 26 percent of 0-0 pitches, but his wOBA is .037 points
higher when doing so.

大多數揮擊第一球數據較佳的球員打第一球的比率都比 Mauer高出許多。以 Buster
Posey 為例，他揮擊第一球的比率超過 26%，而他揮擊第一球時的 wOBA 較不揮時高出
 .037。

Highest first pitch swing rates
Of course it takes all shapes and sizes in baseball, and certain hitters have
had considerable success when hacking immediately. From 2002-2012 the top 10
are as follows:


當然了，棒球充滿各種變化和可能性。自然也有積極揮擊的球員有著成功的生涯，2002到
2012年揮擊比率最高的前十名。


#       Name    PA      First pitch swing%      wOBA swinging   wOBA taking    D
1       Vladimir Guerrero       5866    48.2%   0.356   0.404   0.048
2       Wily Mo Pena    1841    47.9%   0.295   0.345   0.05
3       Nomar Garciaparra       3328    47.4%   0.342   0.361   0.019
4       Randall Simon   1165    46.6%   0.319   0.297   -0.022
5       Delmon Young    3547    45.8%   0.304   0.333   0.029
6       Josh Hamilton   3110    45.5%   0.373   0.389   0.016
7       Johnny Estrada  1901    44.0%   0.321   0.309   -0.012
8       Jose Molina     2166    44.0%   0.274   0.272   -0.002
9       Jeff Francoeur  4664    43.9%   0.306   0.321   0.015
10      Pablo Sandoval  2275    43.7%   0.334   0.371   0.037

I bet you guessed Vlad Guerrero would place first and I bet you're not
surprised you were right. Vlad still saw more success when taking than
offering, despite the fact that he went after that first pitch a mind-blowing
48 percent of the time. In fact, most of these hitters fared better when
taking, with the exceptions of Estrada, Simon and Molina (who showed virtually
no split at all).

我想大家都會猜 Vlad Guerrero會是第一名，而不意外的他也的確是第一。事實上數據顯
示 Vlad 不揮第一球時的數據較佳，儘管他揮第一球比率高達 48%。但現實中，這類球員
放過第一球時的數據都較佳，僅有的例外是 Estrada, Simon 以及 Molina。

If it's not broke, don't fix it?
For players who showed the most improvement when swinging rather than taking,
the Cardinals' David Freese was at the top of the list with a .077 boost in his
wOBA. Other notable players with similar massive split favoring an early hack
include Gaby Sanchez, Gerardo Parra, Danny Espinosa and the aforementioned
Buster Posey.

對於那些在揮第一球時表現較佳的球員中，紅雀的 David Freese ，是當中的佼佼者，他
的 wOBA 高出了整整 .077 。其他類似的球員包括了 Gaby Sanchez, Gerardo Parra,
Danny Espinosa還有之前提過的 Buster Posey 。

Interestingly, the focus of Verducci's article was on Dustin Ackley, and how
the Mariners' preaching patience at the plate was "getting in these kids'
heads." Ackley was right behind Freese with a healthy .067 wOBA improvement.

有趣的是，Verducci那篇抱怨現代打者太被動的文章主要在談 Dustin Ackley，還有水手
對於耐心選球理念的宣揚是如何影響了該名球員。但是 Ackley 的 wOBA 其實高出了
 .067 。

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/swinging-or-taking-on-the-first-pitch/

--
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◆ From: 140.119.96.46
推 jimy00ex:推
推 tian152715:好文推推
→ SNGoMMX:有不少錯字
→ SNGoMMX:改一下吧~
推 tony123839:翻譯的很專業
推 aLaN0727:幫補血
推 cc03233:我實況野球都會點初球
推 Edison1174:Ted Williams好像說最好別打第一球 除非不打對不起自己
→ Edison1174:(球太甜太欠打)
※ 編輯: zkow            來自: 140.119.96.46        (08/24 21:09)
推 Sparksfly:
推 wwewcwwwf:歷年中華隊最愛打第一球 最後下場是什麼
→ wwewcwwwf:這屆經典賽才比較有改善
推 cena0605:先補血好了
推 wtt168:不錯...  這種文多po點就不會有人噓啦
→ finalmaple:第8頁中間　在所有同類球員「中」排第 17　　　 ∩﹏∩
推 iwillloveyou:
→ finalmaple:第11頁上面　「事」實上
推 Danks:些許錯字，但推熱心翻譯
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推 mithralin:zkow歐,他的翻譯要先打五折.....
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推 webber51118:沒有必要雞蛋裡挑骨頭，熱心推。
※ 編輯: zkow            來自: 140.119.96.46        (08/24 21:57)
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推 zyx12320:讚喔
推 AStigma:走入正途是會被鼓勵的XD
推 newest:
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推 b85181:推 sylviehsiang:ZKOW被盜帳號唷?
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推 zyx12320:錯字有點多~
推 maxspeed150:從另一個角度想  能讓這些不打第一球的出棒的球絕對
→ maxspeed150:都是很甜很好打 所以wOBA高一點才合理
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→ ypw:結論是好球就打  XD
推 heacoun:z尻這篇我推