[外電] Samardzija, In the Name of Efficiency

[JakeMcGee (Jake McGee)]

Jeff Samardzija, In the Name of Efficiency
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jeff-samardzija-in-the-name-of-efficiency/
by Jeff Sullivan - May 22, 2014

There are two big stories with Jeff Samardzija right now. One is that he’s
almost certain to get traded by the Cubs somewhere around the deadline, as a
contender looks for a major rotation boost. The other is that Samardzija is
currently 0-4 in ten starts with a 1.46 ERA. Of course, we pretty much never
talk about win/loss record, and of course a pitcher on the Cubs is going to
have a worse record than he deserves, but for as silly as this bit of trivia
is, it really is astonishing. In Samardzija’s ten games, the Cubs have
scored 20 runs.

現在對於鯊魚來說有兩個關注點
1. 他大概會在交易截止日前被交易
2. 本季先發十場戰績0-4 ERA1.46(我記得這是MLB歷史紀錄了)
當然我們不去討論勝敗紀錄 況且在光緒熊的投手本來就會有更差的勝敗成績(Garza表示:)
雖然有點好笑 但另人吃驚的是這10場比賽光緒熊只得了20分

Because of those two things going on, relatively few people might have
noticed a third thing going on. Samardzija remains a quality starter, but
ever so quietly, he’s changed his profile. The starter version of Jeff
Samardzija in 2014 isn’t the starter version of Jeff Samardzija from the two
previous years, and in particular, this version of Samardzija doesn’t get as
many strikeouts, even though he still has all his stuff. Last year, he was
tied in strikeout rate with Shelby Miller and Gio Gonzalez. This year he’s
even with Kyle Lohse. At the moment, Samardzija is one of the most
talked-about pitchers in baseball, and so we might as well talk about why he
isn’t quite what he was. It’s not that he’s a worse pitcher. It’s that he
’s a different pitcher.

而前面兩件事情都仍在進行 許多人都沒注意到第三件事情
鯊魚是個非常好的投手 甚至安靜到他改變了投球型態 都沒人注意
2014年的鯊魚跟前兩季的他是不一樣的投手 這版本的他少了一些三振卻保有他原先的實力
去年他的三振率跟Gio和雪碧一樣 而這季卻跟肉絲一樣
鯊魚現在是個被熱烈討論的投手 所以我們想要來探討他怎麼跟之前不一樣了

Where do you start? Pitch mix, right? Pitch mix is the easiest thing to
investigate, and according to Brooks Baseball, Samardzija has moved away from
his bread-and-butter, the split. He still has the splitter in his back
pocket, because it’s an important pitch for him, but his splitter rate has
dropped from 18% to 16% to 10%. Picking up the slack: he’s thrown more
sinkers. Samardzija, basically, is throwing more hittable pitches.

從哪裡下手呢? 投球種類 對吧? 這是最容易去看投手的類型方式
根據Brooks Baseball 鯊魚的指叉球越來越少投了 雖然這是他相當重要的球種
指叉球使用率從18%到16%再到10%

記得這句話 " 他投更多伸卡球 "
簡單來說 鯊魚投了更多容易被打的球

And we can zero in on the splitter rate in two-strike counts, when Samardzija
might be going for a whiff:

2012: 43%
2013: 36%
2014: 24%

以上是兩好球後 鯊魚使用指叉球的比例

Used to be, Samardzija would get a strikeout with 22% of his two-strike
pitches. So far this season, that’s at 17%, in part because there have been
fewer splitters. And it seems important to note a couple things. One,
Samardzija’s splitter has changed. It’s gained a few inches of arm-side
run, and it’s lost a little bit of drop. Two, Samardzija didn’t start using
the splitter this year until halfway through spring training. He was putting
a lot of work into improving his other pitches, and, a relevant quote:

從前鯊魚兩好球後會有22%的三振率 今年則是17% 主因是他使用較少的指叉球

但還有其他事情必須說明
1. 鯊魚的指叉球改變了
2. 春訓過了一半 鯊魚才開始用他的指叉球

“You take a risk any time you do something like that and change or heavily
work on one pitch or don’t work on one pitch,” Samardzija said. “You’re
throwing something too much or not throwing it enough.”
[...]
“A couple of years ago I’d keep throwing my splitter, at times with the
mentality to punch out a lot of guys. But a lot of time you’re wasting
pitches and letting them back in counts,” Samardzija said.

以上是鯊魚接受訪問的片段

After pitch mix, you think about pitch location. I’m going to show you a
couple graphs, showing Samardzija against righties and Samardzija against
lefties. The graphs will show average pitch location broken down by type, and
while it isn’t the best thing to do to come up with an average location, the
results can still be telling. Zero on the x-axis is the center of the plate,
and zero on the y-axis is the middle of the zone, vertically.

在球種之後 你可以能想到的是進壘位置
以下將告訴你 鯊魚分別面對左打及右打的情況

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/samardzijarhb.png

FA: four-seamer
SI: sinker
FC: cutter
SL: slider
FS: splitter

(classifications straight from Brooks Baseball)

In blue, locations from a year ago. In red, locations from this year. The
biggest change, by far, is that Samardzija has thrown his splitter to
righties a lot lower and more away. The units, incidentally, are feet.
Samardzija has also been more willing to throw his sinker over the plate, and
he’s brought in both his cutter and his four-seamer. The slider’s been
lower. Four of five pitches have been lower. Samardzija has made an effort to
work down, more, trying to get grounders and avoid the homers that’ve
troubled him in the past.

(右打)
藍點是去年的位置 紅點是今年的
最大的改變是指叉球更低且更外面
另外他投伸卡球更偏近好球帶  而四縫跟卡特也是相同情況 滑球也更低
五個球種內就有四種比去年更低 試圖取得更多滾球 近而避免HR的發生

The flip side:

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/samardzijalhb.png

Another massive change with the splitter. It’s being buried more, and where
Samardzija used to throw it off the outside edge to lefties, now he’s a lot
more willing to throw it down but over the plate. The cutter is no longer
just an inside pitch. The four-seamer has drifted toward the outer edge. The
sinker has come back closer to the fastball. All five pitches are lower, as,
again, Samardzija is trying to do what he can to keep the ball out of the air.

(左打)
另一個指叉球的重大改變 與去年相比 投得更接近好球帶但更低
卡特不只是近身球了 四縫朝向外角 伸卡則往好球帶移動
所有的五種球路都更低 再次說明鯊魚試圖將球留在地上而不是天空

What else? Plenty else. Samardzija made a change last September that didn’t
seem to draw a lot of attention, but here are his horizontal release points,
by start, from Brooks:

那還有什麼? 其實還很多.....
去年九月鯊魚就改變了他放球點的位置

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/samardzijarelease.jpg


In his third-to-last start of 2013, Samardzija shifted toward the third-base
side of the rubber, and he’s only shifted even more in 2014. The difference
is about a foot, as Samardzija now is releasing the ball from behind a
right-handed hitter’s back. I couldn’t find any quotes, but, presumably,
this is about Samardzija looking for better angles, and in the three starts
before Samardzija moved, lefties batted .237, but righties batted .400 while
slugging .725. Samardzija was getting abused by right-handed hitters, so he
tried to get a better angle against them, as sort of a counter-attack. It’s
also worth noting that Samardzija has gradually been dropping his arm angle,
though the difference has been more slight. This might be contributing to his
splitter having different movement.

從去年季末鯊魚在投手丘上就移向3壘一些 今年更加明顯
現在鯊魚的放球點大概是在右打者的背後 可能是他尋找更好的角度

在他調整前三場 左打被打擊率.237 而右打是.400(外帶SLG .725)
所以這些可能是鯊魚在調整面對右打的情況

另外他也改變了出手角度(些微低一些) 這可能也導致他的指叉球有不同的位移

As screenshot support for the image above, here are three pictures, showing
Samardzija before the shift in 2013, after the shift in 2013, and in 2014.

以下是三張鯊魚調整投球姿勢的照片
1. 2013調整前
2. 2013調整後
3. 2014再調整

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/samardzija9413.png

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/samardzija92313.png

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/samardzija52114.png

Samardzija these days is working from the extreme end of the rubber, and
though that could change down the road — it changed just last September — it
’s not like Samardzija is feeling any sense of urgency to change what’s
allowed him to run such a low ERA.

So? Right now, Samardzija’s strikeouts of righties are down, but he’s also
trimmed his walks to almost nothing, and he’s getting more grounders. He has
yet to allow a right-handed home run. Lefties, meanwhile, are striking out a
little less and walking a little more, but they’re also hitting more
grounders, and slugging .319. Previously, lefties facing Samardzija slugged
in the .440s.

所以?
現在他三振下滑了 但是有更多的滾球
先前面對左打有.440的長打率 現在則是.319

It seems like we’ve covered everything, but there’s one last detail, and
this might be the most dramatic of all. Last season, Samardzija struck out
23% of batters with the bases empty. This season, he’s also at 23%, with
identical walks. With men on, though, his whiffs have dropped from 24% to
16%. About that pitch mix from earlier — let’s break that down some.

似乎我們已經解釋了差不多了 但還有最後一點 而且這可能是最重要的改變
在壘上無人的情況下 去年三振率是23% 今年也是23%
但是當壘上有人 從去年的24%下降為16%

Bases Empty 壘上無人揮擊率

2012: 68% fastballs/cutters
2013: 68%
2014: 67%

Runner(s) On 壘上有人揮擊率

2012: 54% fastballs/cutters
2013: 57%
2014: 73%

With nobody on base, Jeff Samardzija has more or less pitched like his
familiar self. He’s generated familiar results. When somebody reaches,
though, suddenly Samardzija is a fastball machine, where he used to throw
almost half secondary stuff. His xFIP with men on base is worse. However, his
actual results have been much better to date, with one extra-base hit and no
homers. There have been grounders, and fewer deep drives, and it seems like
Samardzija might be conquering the issue that has previously given him higher
ERAs than you’d expect.

當壘上無人 鯊魚就像之前的鯊魚
當壘上有人 鯊魚就像狂塞直球的機器 雖然xFIP-在壘上有人的數據並不好看
但實際表現非常好 只有一發長打 完全沒有被打HR

產生更多滾球 避免長打 看起來鯊魚似乎戰勝了這個問題

Of course, in time, there will be more homers, and Samardzija’s ERA will
start with a 2 or a 3. Elements of his game right now are unsustainable,
statistically, and it seems like he might want to prioritize strikeouts more
with men on. But that hasn’t worked great for him in the past, so you can
see why he’s interested in adjustments. You can see why he might want to
throw fewer splitters, and you can see how Samardzija can succeed as a
pitcher as less of a strikeout pitcher. If Samardzija ever wants to go back,
he probably could, because he still has the repertoire. But if he likes this
approach, and if the splitter is just a bit less useful from a lower slot and
a more extreme angle, Samardzija is running the same xFIP- as he did last
season. Samardzija is no less interesting than ever. Samardzija is no less
effective than ever.

當然長時間來看 一定會有更多的HR會產生 而鯊魚的ERA大概會調整到2-3之間
現在他的數據再再都顯示無法繼續維持

過去他總是把三振視為優先 但成果似乎不是太好 所以你可以想像為何他要調整
現在你看到鯊魚三振下降但更成功

如果鯊魚想調整回過去的鯊魚 他似乎也可以達到
但如果他喜愛這樣的投球型態 那他的xFIP-將跟去年差不多

鯊魚現在比過去更有趣也更加有效率

--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 1.171.122.72
※ 文章網址: http://www.ptt.cc/bbs/MLB/M.1400818040.A.397.html
推 shawshien:鯊魚是一個用腦子投球的投手
推 elong:所以他今年的非自責分也暴增...光緒熊的內野...
推 vergilmir:推一個~~~
推 miabcd199:鯊魚要被交易出去成為我熊2015奪冠的墊腳石嗎QQ?
推 elong:如果賣一隻鯊魚就夠爭冠 GM就太神啦
推 nickyang:xFIP-不是x-FIP，是類似ERA+的東西，那是減號不是dash
感謝指正XDD 手誤
→ epw:一隻鯊魚換到三隻未來柯蕭就有可能
推 bgp915117:2015拿冠軍是天意 賣掉誰都檔不了的
推 Guerrieri:                                 那來賣小熊招牌
※ 編輯: JakeMcGee (1.171.122.72), 05/23/2014 13:04:56
→ dinos:http://ppt.cc/86rf 三張出手點比較，只對準投手板和本壘板
→ ultratimes:2012的Cliff Lee表示：
推 Fezico:Garza:
推 jardon:他去年前10場就不賴 不過也拿了兩勝
推 qozxcv:K/9 掉到7 比前兩年都有9左右
→ qozxcv:HR/9 掉最多 目前只被轟2發 去年被轟25發
推 elong:現在這打線有三隻科蕭也只會變成三個悲情投手吧XD
推 oxtis:Orioles need you
推 Zamned:老話一句 能撐過夏天的瑞格里再來談他的改變。
→ Zamned:這篇文章能轉小熊版嗎？
→ JakeMcGee:Z大請自取 : )
→ Zamned:另外 小熊的內野防守是不錯的 不只能看失誤數
→ JakeMcGee:記得夏天小熊主場風勢會助長飛球成為HR
→ Zamned:謝囉(^o^)/
推 Zamned:手機不能轉貼 (〒︿〒)
推 JohnLackey:好慘= =鯊魚超越當年的Lee了
推 pailoun:鯊魚不要走QQ
推 b99202071:推 需要多點這種文章
推 EEERRIICC:我覺得Kershaw也有這種情形
→ EEERRIICC:ZG可以試著練一顆 容易被打進場 但打不好的球
→ EEERRIICC:增加效率
推 ultratimes:可是Lee有個滿滿宵夜的2008年..和不請宵夜的2012年
推 rayven:推
推 clou:好文推
推 nathancn:push
推 ohmyya:難怪喔  隊友守備機會變多就累累了所以得不了分
※ Zamned:轉錄至看板 Cubs                                          05/23 21:24
推 eno03:推專業文
推 chsh410862:Valbuena Rizzo Castro Barney都是不錯的防守者
推 elong:那鯊魚的超高非自責是怎麼回事...
→ troy30408:Morton 1W了 鯊魚拍拍...
推 edhuang:推好文
推 raoul0410:推翻譯 謝謝