[外電] 五位應該入選明星賽的球及五位不該入選的

[ted10 ()]

原文：http://tinyurl.com/zk59qcp by ESPN's Keith Law

Five players who belong on All-Star roster ... and five who don't

五位應該入選明星賽的球員，還有，五位不應該入選的。

My philosophy on the All-Star Game is simple: It's a marketing event for
baseball -- not a popularity contest and not a way to reward first-half
flukes.

明星賽在我看來其實單純就是一場屬於棒球的行銷活動，
不是什麼人氣大賽或是獎勵那些也許只是曇花一現的半季好表現。

A lot of folks have grown up thinking selection is about who has the best
stats on the day you vote, even if it's someone who has just had the best 50
games of his life, rather than getting the actual stars -- the word that is
in the name of the game -- on one field at one time.

許多人認為應該是根據所有球員季初至票選開始那天的期間表現來投票，而非根據星度。
即便某些球員的生涯根本沒辦法再複製出如此的成績。
明星賽不就應該是根據球員的星度來當做票選依據嗎？不然為什麼要叫"全明星"賽？

With that in mind, here are five players I think belong in this year's
All-Star Game but might be omitted and five players who could be included but
wouldn't make the cut for me.

以此為依據，以下是五位應該入選明星賽的球員；還有五位根本不應該入選的球員。

Five players who belong

五位應該入選的：

Jose Quintana, LHP
Chicago White Sox
2016 WAR: 2.9

This is some sort of sick joke at this point. Quintana is fourth in the AL in
innings pitched, eighth in ERA and second in FIP (Fielding Independent
Pitching). He's a top-five starter in the American League this year, a top-10
starter in the AL in both 2014 and 2015 and a top-20 starter in 2013. If he
isn't an All-Star, just shut the whole thing down.

至目前為止，(Quintana不在明星賽名單中)這已經是一個很糟糕的事情。
Quintana的投球局數暫居美聯第四，防禦率第八，FIP第二。
他是美聯本季前五佳的先發投手，2014、15時是前十佳，2013時是前二十佳。
他如果沒有參加全明星賽，那乾脆取消這個活動算了。

Gregory Polanco, OF
Pittsburgh Pirates
2016 WAR: 2.5

Polanco belongs in the game every which way from Sunday. He's an emerging
superstar and a former top prospect having a clear breakout season. He is
currently ranked third among NL outfielders in FanGraphs WAR and sixth in
Baseball-Reference's version. He's sixth among NL outfielders in OBP, eighth
in slugging and sixth in wRC+, not to mention that he's a very good to great
defensive outfielder. He's 24 years old and about to become one of the best
players in baseball; if the Pirates trade Andrew McCutchen anytime soon,
it'll be in part because Polanco and Starling Marte have become so good.

無論從什麼角度來看，Polanco都應該入選明星賽。
他以往被視為一個頂級的淺力新秀，而本季也是他開始發光發熱的一年。
他的WAR在所有國聯外野手裡排名第三(FanGraphs) / 第六(Baseball-Reference)，
上壘率第六，長打率第八，wRC+第六，更別提他是一位防守極佳的球員。
今年年僅24歲，未來很有可能成為史上最佳的外野手之一。
如果接下來海盜隊把海賊王交易出去，肯定是因為對Polanco及Marte有十足的信心。

Corey Kluber, RHP
Cleveland Indians
2016 WAR: 2.1

I'd be more angry online about Kluber if I weren't busy being angry online
about Quintana. Kluber's ERA is unsightly at 3.79, but he has the best FIP in
the AL at 2.96, and the gap is really about Kluber's having a bizarre,
probably flukish time with men on base, especially with men in scoring
position: Hitters have slugged .529 off him in 82 such plate appearances.
That's well above his career slugging percentage allowed with men on base
(.430), which is why I say it's likely a fluke and not a good reason to leave
off the roster someone who is clearly one of the top 10 pitchers in the
league. Of course, AL manager Ned Yost picked five relievers for the AL
roster, on top of the three the players chose, so we're left with way too few
starters -- you know, the names, the stars, the players fans show up to watch.

我如果不是忙著為Quintana抱不平，我肯定會更加用力訐譙為什麼Kluber沒有入選。
儘管Kluber的ERA是不起眼的3.79，但他的FIP卻是美聯最佳。
會有這樣大的差距主要來自於在壘上有人時 (82PA)，Kluber的被長打率高達0.529，
而在同樣情況下，他的生涯平均被長打率僅有0.430。所以我才說這個表現應屬個案，
不該為了這種理由而讓這一個明顯屬於聯盟前十的投手連明星賽都無法參與。
而且美聯總教練Ned Yost卻寧願選了五個後援投手，
而使得這些真正的明星先發投手沒有機會入選明星賽。

Brandon Crawford, SS
San Francisco Giants
2016 WAR: 3.2

I wrote last year that Crawford belonged in the game, and I'll say it again
this year. He's a grade-70 defender (on the 20-80 scouting scale) with pop at
a position where any offense is a bonus, and even if you dismiss his 2015
power spike as a fluke, he still has been All-Star-caliber for a few years
now. His problem, I assume, is that so much of his value is wrapped up in his
glove, so he doesn't have the high batting average or home run total to get
the fan or player vote. Look, Addison Russell is a longtime favorite of mine,
but he shouldn't be starting the All-Star Game. Corey Seager should start,
with Crawford as the backup at short.

去年我就提說Crawford理應入選明星賽，今年我還是要舊事重談。
以20-80為標準，他是一位等級70的防守者，還能打長打。重點是他守的位置是游擊。
也許某些人可能會認為他2015年的表現當屬曇花一現，但他近年的表現早就是全明星級。
我認為大概沒把目光放太多在他身上是因為他的價值有很大部分來自於他的防守，
而相較起來，他的攻擊面並沒有辦法為他吸引到很多關愛。
儘管我個人很喜歡A.Russell，但他不應該在明星賽先發，
C.Seager才應該先發，而Crawford則是明星賽游擊替補。

Jake Lamb, 3B
Arizona Diamondbacks
2016 WAR: 2.8

I might seem like the president of Lamb's fan club, making him my lead
breakout pick for 2016 and celebrating his every homer with inexcusable puns
on Twitter, but the guy is leading the NL in slugging percentage and is third
in wOBA and sixth in wRC+, and he is playing about average defense at third
base (good range but too many errors). He's 25 and in his first full, healthy
season in the majors, and he appears to be breaking out as a star. The only
real argument against his inclusion is that he's behind Kris Bryant (voted in
as a third baseman) and Nolan Arenado at his position, and though Lamb is
having a better year than Arenado on offense, I wouldn't put Lamb in the game
over an established superstar such as Arenado.

似乎就因為我認為Lamb會是2016年裡所有破繭而出的球員內表現最為亮眼的人，
這讓我感覺我好像就是Lamb粉絲俱樂部的會長，
每當他打出全壘打時，我理當就要上推特發廢文慶祝。
Lamb目前在國聯的長打率暫居第一，wOBA第三，wRC+第六，
在防守方面他表現屬中上，防守範圍廣，但失誤略多。
他今年才25歲，而且本季才是他第一個健康且完整的球季。
他沒有入選的理由可能就是來自於同屬三壘手的Kris Bryant以及Nolan Arenado。
Kris Bryant是球迷票選的國聯先發三壘手；
儘管本季截自目前為止，Lamb的攻擊面數據比Arenado還要好，
但Arenado畢竟是一位已有長年成績為後盾的選手，Lamb不應該就這樣取代掉Arenado。


Five who don't belong

五位不應該入選的球員：

Brad Brach, RHP
Baltimore Orioles
2016 WAR: 2.5

What the hell is Brad Brach doing on an All-Star roster? He was
replacement-level until last year and barely better than that in 2015, and he
has had a fluke performance of 1.01 ERA in 44 innings this year, so he gets
to go to San Diego while many better, more valuable, more deserving pitchers,
such as Quintana and Kluber, are left off the roster. Brach is emblematic of
the worst tendencies of the All-Star decision-making process -- I don't mean
fans here, as Brach was a manager selection -- with both the emphasis on
current-year performance and the overrating of middle relievers, the most
fungible class of players in baseball. Worst of all, Brach isn't a token
player from a team without a better option; he isn't even the only Orioles
reliever on the roster, to say nothing of the fact that one of the best
players in baseball will represent Baltimore at third base. This spot should
have gone to Quintana, to pick just one of a few dozen more deserving players.

Brad Brach到底憑什麼入選明星賽？
一直到去年以前，他就只是個替補等級的球員，2015年的表現也只是稍稍好一點，
直接今年他才出現這很可能只是曇花一現的成績(44IP, 1.01ERA)。
就因為這樣他就可以把Quintana以及Kluber這樣的選手給擠明星賽嗎？
讓Brach入選明星賽很可能是明星賽史上最糟的選擇－這邊指的是教練選擇，非球迷。
他就是個後援投手。以棒球來講，後援投手的表現最有可能是僅僅驚鴻一撇且過譽的。
更糟的是，Brach甚至還不是金鶯隊的後援投手群中唯一入選的人；
更別提目前聯盟裡最好的三壘手之一早就代表金鶯隊入選明星賽了。
這個位置理當屬於Quintana，或是其他一些更值得的人。

Adam Duvall, OF
Cincinnati Reds
2016 WAR: 2.2

Duvall is a 27-year-old journeyman with a .291 OBP this year -- an
improvement over his .268 career OBP coming into 2016 -- who has fluked into
22 homers this year without doing anything else of value. He doesn't get on
base (obviously), isn't a good fielder and has a hilarious 2-for-7 "success"
rate on stolen bases. He's here because the Reds needed a representative --
it should be Zack Cozart, an elite defender for his entire big league career
who happens to be having his own fluky first half -- and because, ooooh, home
runs. Duvall is a good story, but his All-Star selection will look comically
bad in hindsight, like the late Mike Sharperson's turn as the token Dodgers
representative in 1992.

Duvall就是個27歲的浪人，本季上壘率.291，比起他生涯平均.268，已屬進步。
這個球季他矇出22支全壘打，其他表現乏善可陳。上不了壘，防守差，盜壘7次成功2次。
他會入選就只是因為紅人隊沒有其他代表，而且他打了不少全壘打。
就算是因為這樣，Zack Cozart都更有資格，
Cozart一直都是很好的防守者，而且他上半季表現也是不錯。
Duvall本季的表現是一個很好的故事題材，但入選明星賽只會讓整件事變成笑話，
如同1992年Mike Sharperson代表道奇隊入選明星賽一般。

A.J. Ramos, RHP
Miami Marlins
2016 WAR: 0.8

THE SAVEZ!!! Ramos has thrown 33 innings and walked 19 guys. Even if you want
to consider just his ERA and ignore the fact that he's kind of bad at the
most fundamental thing pitchers are asked to do (throw it over the white
thing on the ground), he's 15th in the NL in ERA among pitchers with at least
30 innings. Why not put Seung Hwan Oh in the game, as he has been much more
effective this year, with a lower ERA and FIP, half the walk rate, a higher
strikeout rate and nine more innings pitched? Oh would also likely make the
game a bigger TV draw in South Korea -- and let's not forget that this game
serves one basic purpose: to market Major League Baseball. Ramos' selection
makes it seem like NL manager Terry Collins just looked at the saves column
and picked the top two guys who weren't already on the team.

Ramos在33局投球裡保送的19名打者。
即便只看他的ERA並且去忽略他那些更具有價值的進階數據上乏善可陳的表現，
在所有投球局數滿30局以上的投手裡，他的ERA僅排在第十五。
與其這樣，不如乾脆選吳昇桓。
效率更佳，ERA跟FIP更低，保送率僅有一半，三振率更高，還多投9局。
而且還可以讓韓國人HIGH一下。講到這邊不免再提，明星賽就是個行銷活動。
而Ramos的入選讓人不免認為國聯總教練Terry Collins只是看救援成功排行榜，
從中挑出兩個排名最高但卻還沒入選明星賽的球員讓他們加入。

Carlos Gonzalez, OF
Colorado Rockies
2016 WAR: 2.5

He's here because people still don't quite know what to do with Coors Field
numbers. Arenado is on the roster, and he should be, as he's the best third
baseman in the National League and one of the best all-around players in
baseball. We didn't need another Rockie on the roster, and Gonzalez hasn't
been very good in recent years … or even this year. FanGraphs ranks him
ninth among NL outfielders in WAR this season, which gives you some sense of
how much we need to discount his offensive production based on the
environment in which he plays half his games. But even without that, do you
need to know park effects to see that Gonzalez's .317/.366/.561 in Coors
isn't going to be worth as much as, say, Christian Yelich's .317/.366/.561 in
Miami? Or that Gonzalez, a once-plus defender who is now just average, hasn't
been as valuable as Starling Marte's very similar .321/.366/.474 line,
considering Marte is also a plus baserunner and plays better defense? This
was a lazy choice by the players, and I don't even have to go into how
Gonzalez wasn't close to All-Star-caliber in 2015 or 2014. There are better
players having better years right in front of our faces.

他會入選明星賽就代表人們到現在仍搞不清楚當主場是Coors Field時數據多好刷。
的確，Arenado一樣是明星賽的一員，但理當如此，因為他是國聯最棒的三壘手，
也是整個聯盟裡最佳球員之一。我們也不需要再有另一個落磯隊球員來湊數。
CarGo近年表現不甚佳。本季他在FanGraphs的國聯外野手WAR裡排名第九，
這也可以給你個概念就是他的真正價值應該因為Coors Field的關係而打多少折。
他在Coors Field所打出來的三圍是，跟C.Yelich在邁阿密打出來的可說是相差無幾。
或是跟S.Marte相比也是沒什麼差距，更別提Marte的跑壘跟防守還更勝一籌。
他會入選只是因為其他球員們懶得認真去評估誰更值得這個位置，
我甚至也不用再去提說CarGo在2014、15年時就已經不是全明星等級球員了。
明明在我們面前有一大把表現比CarGo更好的球員等著我們去選擇。

Eduardo Nunez, SS
Minnesota Twins
2016 WAR: 1.2

Brian Dozier belonged in the game last year -- he was No. 1 on my list of
snubs -- and he belonged in the game this year, if only as the token Twins
representative. Nunez is a utility infielder and a bad defender at shortstop
who has had a high-BABIP-induced fluky first half. He walks once per solstice
and steals a few bases. Dozier is having a better season this year than he
did in 2015 as a whole, and he averaged more than 4 WAR in 2014-15 total, so
I don't get his omission at all. If I showed you the Twins' active roster
without any stats and asked you who was the closest thing they had to a legit
All-Star, you'd say Dozier. It wouldn't be close. Snubbing him for Nunez for
that token Twins spot must be due to some excessive fealty toward batting
average.

Dozier去年入選明星賽實至名歸，而今年雙城代表本也理應非他莫屬。
Nunez就是個工具人，而且游擊還守得很爛，
而且從他那特高的BABIP來看，就能推測他上半季表現就祇是好運而已。
他每半年才會被保送一次 (*註1)，然後也盜不了幾個壘。
Dozier今年表現還比去年好，所以我完全無法理解為什麼不是他入選，
即便我們不要看雙城隊所有人的數據，你還是會說Dozier最應該入選明星賽。
選擇Nunez而非Dozier應該就是某些人對於打擊率有種莫名不可解的相信吧。

*註1：這邊原文用的是per solstice。
solstice意指至日，也就是每年太陽離地球最遠的一天，一年中有兩天(南北半球各一)，
直譯就是說Nunez一年只會被保送兩次，但當然不是真的，只是Law在酸他而已。

**註2：翻譯中提到曇花一現、驚鴻一撇、矇到…等等類似語意的用詞其實在原文都只有
一個單字，也就是fluke，只是因為自己在寫任何東西或翻譯時都會盡量避免重複使用同
一個字，所以會想盡辦法去用同意字詞來取代。
--
戰！？
Keith Law發文這篇文後就已經在twitter上跟網友們交鋒了。XD
※修錯字。
--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 1.34.112.178
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/MLB/M.1467785044.A.899.html
推 gorbykuo: 開戰囉～
→ charlie01: 一次那麼多個不知要挑哪個戰場進入
推 weswes: 太多可以戰了反而戰不起來哈哈
推 udm: 幹嘛不是依年薪來決定？星度不是跟年薪成正比嗎？(戰) (逃)
→ udm: 投手部份不提，觀眾愛看的球員，管他是演技好還是球技佳呀...
→ charlie01: 但Law這篇就是全部都在戰教練選的 和球迷沒有關係
推 loveAJB: Coffee真的很可惜…Marte也是
推 GH33: Nunez盜不了幾個壘??? 原來半季19盜算少了??!!
推 scheiss: 沒有Trumbo?很多人崩潰沒有他耶XD
→ charlie01: 成績先不說 美聯投手那幾位 今年美聯SP只選五個
推 gorbykuo: trumbo不是有進了嗎
→ charlie01: 國聯這邊是九個 美聯去年7個 前年9個 再前一年加上
→ charlie01: 不能登場後遞補的甚至有12個 今年就選五個
→ charlie01: 然後final vote名單也沒有投手 這比例確實有討論空間
→ charlie01: 不過整篇看下來他的所有論點其實還是一句話
→ haloducks: 還是沒有Myers
→ charlie01: "傳統數據和現在已經大家都有概念的進階數據之爭"
推 hongchanghsu: 推  有些錯字麻煩原po修一下。 “綠地”跟“marter
→ hongchanghsu: ”是錯的。
推 kenkenken31: 原來是教練選的啊，想說星度關進階數據啥事
推 BusterPosey: 同意國聯游擊的人選應該是Seager和Crawford
推 saiulbb: 戰惹
推 immortalqq: Lindor也很可惜
※ 編輯: ted10 (1.34.112.178), 07/06/2016 14:47:29
推 Werth: Vogt入選也是有點怪
推 typhoonnat: 戰!!! Brac可以進來真的很扯....
推 sin17: Vogt就運動家保障名額
推 BlueSkyRaker: 那運動家怎不選Hill選Vogt
推 pigo8032: 幫C.Yelich QQ  很喜歡他
→ alvis6971: 半年被保送一次...
推 ypw: 明星賽本來就是投票+前半段的表現為主  不然要加計前一年
→ ypw: 明星賽後的表現嗎？  原文自己都說白了...
推 jim12441: Yost被自己家的SP群嚇到了所以狂選RP
推 th11yh23: 推Lamb
推 eon4: 他每半年才會被保送一次 XDDDDDDD
→ blackcellar:                      半年不就差不多剛好一個球季？
噓 loveAJB: Russell完全就是灌水的～～
推 wahaha5678: 開戰啦!Nunez的LD%明明就能跟BABIP兜起來
→ wahaha5678: Law在崩潰什麼www
推 lmc66: 推不如選無生還
推 LucasDuda: 列WAR幹嘛...沒發現兩邊的人有些很接近嗎？XD
推 jardon: 22轟也可以矇到 其他人怎麼不矇一下
推 fountainNess: 推Lamb
推 minihyde: CarGo揮棒姿勢很帥
推 eon4: 那半年是Law酸Nunez保送有夠少，不用太認真啦XD
推 LucasDuda: Btw CarGo這兩年還滿健康的XD
推 todd7622: 美國 WAR哥
推 OoyaoO: CarGo好戰
※ 編輯: ted10 (1.34.112.178), 07/06/2016 17:34:20
推 scjh123: Cargo打球真的是明星阿，雖然他成績真的是coors洗出來的
推 dragon50119: CarGo沒那麼不堪啦…@@
→ dragon50119: Russell真的不能接受，雖然他是個好的防守者，但Seag
→ dragon50119: er才應該是先發
推 phoenix286: 美聯不知道RP選那麼多幹嘛...
推 loveAJB: 假如Russell拿掉，就能讓有機會的球員上去了… 比如B尻、
→ loveAJB: Coffee、Lamb等等
推 h09582668200: 同意Seager先發 國聯OPS最高的SS被灌水的擠去替補
推 fountainNess: Fowler受傷，應該有打者會遞補
推 jefftie2000: coffee是誰0.o
→ EEERRIICC: Polanco
推 ca1123: 中繼投手ERA1左右是得罪誰了........
推 bkm1: 阿明星賽不就今年上半季表現好的??? ERA1搞不好一輩子一次耶
推 loveAJB: 這樣 Coffee有機會頂Folwer位置？
→ loveAJB: Fowler
→ abc06: 明星賽要看數據的話 中職表示:
推 ForeverChop: 戰意滿點
推 IoverIover: Brach今天還一局3連K耶 ERA不到1，這樣說沒資格?
→ IoverIover: whip 0.79這樣還不夠格?
→ a88152660: 純粹RP星度比較不夠吧 就算是金鳥迷應該也很意外有他
推 Akaiito: 這篇戰力十足
→ uranusjr: 完全不知道他在抱怨什麼, Collins 本來就只會看勝敗救援
→ uranusjr: 真要說該抱怨的是聯盟冠軍總教練負責選隔年明星賽這件事
→ uranusjr: 為什麼球員是投票, 教練卻是用戰績決定？
推 batmask: 我以為會有Bryce Harper
→ batmask: 我是說 不該入選的部分
推 jackys313: Brach跟E哥不該進? 表現好還要被當水貨哪招...
→ jackys313: 看成績已經是最客觀的指標了 打得好還要被當屁...
推 a0912574942: 半季矇出22支全壘打........
推 duck0709: 防禦率1入選很不應該 防禦率應該沒寫錯吧
→ duck0709: 太扯了
推 LucasDuda: 說游擊應該怎樣怎樣，怎不乾脆說Russell不該進XD
→ loveAJB: 沒辦法啊～Russell就是穿對制服而已～
推 cannotsleep: 看看就好，僅代表他個人立場
推 n61208: Lamb入選了
推 ErnieBanks: 感覺是崩潰了XD
推 cc1012: 選明星？那就從薪水高的先來算了
推 a2156700: 海賊王怎麼了
推 kbwai: 推crawford
推 amerei: 半季矇出22支 但是fb被人撿走 我懂
推 fireguard119: 吳昇桓竟然沒有
推 pain0: 開頭講星度，但後面還是看成績啊
噓 LWK: 沒有王
→ amab212: Law這篇並不是全在戰教練選的,有一位球員選的他也有看法
→ amab212: This was a lazy choice by the players.
→ amab212: 文一開始也提了''選''的 ... ,看來他是希望 自己那行的人
→ amab212: 能放進明星球員產生機制中,就能得到最棒的名單,只是沒明
→ amab212: 說
→ amab212: 首先他提出全明星的含意,接著他也對SS的先發提出意見
→ amab212: 簡單說給他選的話,會比球迷理性, 比教練專業, 比球員勤勞
噓 loveAJB: 就是在說 Russell啦！！ 雖然最近有猛起來，不過西格更猛
→ loveAJB: 啦～
噓 AHEAD099: 雖然有幾個真的蠻鳥的 可是感覺這篇就是在憤世嫉俗