[外電] 自由球員簡介：陳偉殷

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撰文者：Tim Dierkes(MLBTradeRumors.com)
Free Agent Profile: Wei-Yin Chen
自由球員簡介：陳偉殷

After a successful four-year stint with the Orioles, Taiwanese lefty Wei-Yin
Chen has reached free agency coming off the best season of his MLB career.
於金鶯經歷四個成功的球季後，來自台灣的左投陳偉殷將在大聯盟生涯首次投入自由球員
市場。

Strengths/Pros
優勢

Since 2014, Chen has a 3.44 ERA over 377 innings.  That ranks 28th among all
qualified MLB starters, 11th among southpaws, and seventh among a
historically strong free agent class.  While Chen is not an ace, he’s had
better recent results than the casual fan might realize, and he’s been
better than free agent peers Jeff Samardzija and Mike Leake.
陳自2014年至今吃了377局及3.44的投手自責分率，這在所有先發投手中排名第28、所有
左投當中排名第11、在這次的自由球員市場中則排名第七，既使陳並非王牌，他這幾年下
來的表現可能比一般球迷所想像的還要好，他也比與他同一線的自由球員Jeff
Samardzija和Mike Leake更優。

Chen is not going to beat himself.  His 1.81 BB/9 ranks tenth among qualified
starters for 2014-15, and he’s walked a lower percentage of batters faced
than even Zack Greinke.  Chen was unhittable against lefties this year, as
only Dallas Keuchel, Jake Arrieta, Greinke, and Clayton Kershaw allowed a
lower weighted on-base average against them.  Chen throws hard for a
southpaw, as his average fastball velocity over the last two years of 91.6
miles per hour ranks seventh among qualified lefty starters.
陳通常不會讓自己深陷泥沼，他每九局1.88個的保送在2014及15球季的先發投收中排名第
十，他的保送率甚至比Zack Greinke還低，陳對決左打也相當有一套，在聯盟當中也只有
Dallas Keuchel、Jake Arrieta、Greinke、 和Clayton Kershaw在壘上有人時比他還有
效率的解決打者，陳也算是為強力左投，近兩年先發的直球均速91.6英哩在先發左投當中
為第七名。

Chen features a healthy left arm.  His only MLB DL stint was for an oblique
strain in 2013.  In each of his other three MLB campaigns, he made at least
31 starts.  Over the past four years, Chen has made more starts than guys
like Chris Sale, Stephen Strasburg, Francisco Liriano, and Johnny Cueto.
陳也有著健康的手臂，他唯一進入傷兵名單是在2013年由於腹斜肌拉傷，在其他三季當中
他都至少先發了31場比賽，在這四年的期間，陳先發的場次比Chris Sale、Stephen
Strasburg、Francisco Liriano、和Johnny Cueto都還要多。

Chen has youth on his side, as he turned 30 in July.  He’s younger than
mid-range free agent southpaws Scott Kazmir and J.A. Happ, making four years
palatable and five years possible.
陳的年紀也不大，今天七月才滿30歲，他比與他同一線的自由球員Scott Kazmir和J.A.
Happ都還要年輕，這也讓他得到四年約顯得合理、五年約也不無可能。

Weaknesses/Cons
劣勢

If you’re not into ERA, Chen doesn’t look all that great.  Though he had
that 3.44 ERA over the last two seasons, his SIERA during that time was
3.91.  Chen’s skills suggest he’s more Wade Miley/Jon Niese than Jose
Quintana/Francisco Liriano.  I’m not just citing an esoteric stat here.  Chen
’s strikeout rates have always been pedestrian, generally at or below league
average.  His groundball rate ranks 42nd among qualified starters over the
last two years, and his attendant home run rate is the sixth-worst in
baseball.  To succeed, Chen needs a strong defense and a big ballpark.
如果你不是只用投手自責分率判定一位投手，或許陳就沒有帳面上的數字傑出，雖然他近
兩年的投手自責分率為3.44，他的SIERA則是3.91，這顯示陳比較屬於Wade Miley/Jon
Niese而非Jose Quintana/Francisco Liriano，我不會引用深奧的統計數據，陳的三振率
一直以來都算普通，處於平均或甚至略低於聯盟平均，他的滾地球比率在這這兩年間的先
發投手中排名第42，而他的被全壘打率在排名當中是倒數第六，陳需要防守及較大的球場
加持才能鞏固成功。

On that note, Chen is not going to save a team’s bullpen, as he has averaged
6.08 innings per start over the last two seasons.  Among those with at least
60 starts, that ranks 28th of 46.  Samardzija and Leake will regularly go
deeper into games than Chen.
從這兩年陳每場先發平均吃下6.08局可以看出他可能沒有辦法拯救牛棚，在其他這兩年先
發至少60場的先發當中，陳的每場先發平均局數在46人當中排名第28，Samardzija及
Leake通常可以比陳吃更多的局數。

Chen turned down a qualifying offer from the Orioles, so signing him requires
a team to forfeit its first eligible draft pick.  This is a disadvantage for
Chen compared to pitchers such as Cueto, Leake, Kazmir, and Kenta Maeda.
Teams like the Red Sox and Diamondbacks would have to forfeit an early-teens
draft pick to sign Chen, which could cause them to look elsewhere in a robust
market for free agent pitching.
陳拒絕了金鶯的合格報價，所以簽下他需要損失第一輪的選秀權，這讓陳與Cueto、Leake
、Kazmir和前田健太相較之下多了一個劣勢，像紅襪和響尾蛇這種選秀順位在前面的
球隊不太可能放棄選秀權去簽陳，這個因素會使這些球隊在自由市場上尋找沒有著個包袱
的大魚。

Personal
個人

Chen, a native of Taiwan, dropped out of college in 2004 to play pro ball,
according to Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker.  He reportedly received offers
from Japanese and MLB teams at the time.  According to Newman, Chen chose to
sign with with the Chunichi Dragons because of Taiwanese scout Ta-Feng Chen.
After spending a little bit of time with the Dragons as well as their farm
team, Chen went down for Tommy John surgery in late 2006.  Newman tells me
the Dragons released him while he was rehabbing, re-signing him to an ikusei
contract.  He went on to star with the Dragons, winning an ERA title in
2009.  At the pitcher’s request, the Dragons released Chen after the 2011
season, allowing him to reach international free agency without dealing with
the posting system.  Orioles executive vice president of baseball operations
Dan Duquette, who had been hired a few months earlier, signed Chen to a
three-year contract worth $11.388MM guaranteed, with a club option for a
fourth year.  Duquette had also signed Tsuyoshi Wada out of Japan for
$8.15MM.  Chen was the first Taiwan-born player to sign with an MLB team out
of Japan, as well as the first Taiwanese player in Orioles history.  Chen’s
big league debut attracted more than a million viewers in Taiwan, where the
game was carried on three national TV networks.
陳來自台灣，2004年大學未結束便開始職棒生涯，根據Patrick Newman(NPBTracker.com)
的消息，陳當時收到自日職與大聯盟的合約，依Newman的說法，陳由於來自台灣球探陳大
豐的關係最後選擇加盟中日龍，在中日龍的農場待了一段時間後，陳於2006年接受Tommy
John手術，中日龍也在他復健的那對時間將他釋出並與他重新簽下一份育成合約，他隨後
也在中日龍開始發光發熱，並於2009年得到防禦率王，由於陳的要求，中日龍於2011年球
季後放手讓陳追夢，當時才剛上任幾月的金鶯執行副總Dan Duquette將陳以三年1138.8萬
美附帶第四年球團選擇權將他簽下來，Duquette也同時以兩年815萬將同是來自日職的和
田毅簽下，陳是台灣第一位先在日職隨後於大聯盟簽約的球員，同時也是金鶯歷史隊上第
一位來自台灣的球員，陳在大聯盟的第一場先發也吸引了非常多的球迷收看，在台灣三個
不同頻道撥出。

Market
市場

The Orioles have a lot of needs to fill, and they don’t seem likely to
re-sign Chen.  Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun noted recently that the O’s
have never given a five-year deal to a free agent pitcher, plus Chen was “
miffed” by the team’s decision to send him to the minors briefly in June
due to a roster crunch.  Chen’s market could include teams such as the
Angels, Astros, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Marlins,
Nationals, Padres, Rangers, Red Sox, Royals, Tigers, Twins, and Yankees.
According to Connolly, Chen and his family reside in Southern California in
the offseason.  As I mentioned, some clubs will back away because of the
qualifying offer.  Others may prefer not to do business with agent Scott
Boras or won’t have the payroll space for Chen.  There are four potential
$100MM+ pitchers on the market, and then there is a second tier with Chen,
Samardzija, Leake, and perhaps Maeda.  I project this to be the $80MM range,
and certainly there are reasons to prefer Chen to the other three.
Samardzija is coming off a 4.96 ERA, Leake misses even fewer bats and had a
higher ERA than Chen, and Maeda is unproven in MLB and may not even be
posted.  Plus, Chen is the only southpaw of his tier.  If Chen drops down to
four years, he could be compared to Kazmir.  Kazmir is no horse himself, and
he’s a year and a half older than Chen.
金鶯目前還有許多缺口需要填，而他們看來似乎不太可能將陳簽回去，巴爾的摩太陽報的
Dan Connolly指出金鶯從來沒有對自由市場的投手提出超過五年的約，加上陳對於球隊在
季中因為輪值需求將他送至小聯盟一事可能還有疙瘩，比較有可能簽下陳的球隊為天使、
太空人、藍鳥、紅雀、小熊、巨人、馬林魚、國民、教士、遊騎兵、皇家、老虎、雙城和
洋基。根據Connolly的說法，陳與他的家人在季後居住的地方為西岸的加州南邊。和我前
面提到的，一些球隊可能會因為合格報價的因素退卻，有些球隊則是不想與Scott Boras
談生意或已經沒有空間負擔陳的薪資，目前自由市場上有四位可能獲得一億以上合約的投
手，第二線的投手便為陳、Samardzija、Leake，或許還可以加上前田，我將這些人定位
在可獲得8000萬左右的合約，而也有一些合理的理由選擇陳而非其他三位，Samardzija本
季的自責分率為4.96，Leake比陳面對較少的打者、自責分率也高過陳，前田則連是否在
大聯盟生存都是個未知數，加上陳是當中唯一的左投，如果陳願意考慮四年約，他可以與
Kazmir相比，Kazmir不是工作馬，而且他年紀也比陳大上一歲又六個月。

Expected Contract
預期合約

I’ve seen some four-year projections for Chen’s contract, and while that is
possible, I believe he’ll get five.  Next year’s free agent market is one
factor — Chen would be the second-best starting pitcher in that weak group,
which might be important to forward-looking teams.  There’s also the Boras
factor.  He got a four-year deal for a 35-year-old Derek Lowe.  He routinely
gets his clients contracts at the top end of their range, particularly those
coming off a good year.  There’s also good old-fashioned earned run
average.  A 3.44 ERA still sounds really good.  If Boras has a team owner’s
ear on Chris Davis, surely he’ll bring up Chen and sell the lefty on the
basis of that ERA.  ERA still seems to hold sway in the marketplace – look
no further than the James Shields signing or the Alfredo Simon trade.  While
I see a ceiling of $90MM, I’m predicting a five-year, $80MM contract for
Chen.
我已經看過幾張可能提供給陳的四年約，我相信他會得到五年約，明年較不起眼的自由球
員市場是一個因素，如果把陳放到明年他會是市場上第二的先發投手，這可能對有遠見的
球隊很重要，Boras也是一個因素，他為35歲的Derek Lowe爭到一份四年約，他通常能為
他的客戶爭取到最長的年限，特別是那一些在合約年有出色表現的選手，加上傳統注重投
手自責分率的因素，3.44聽起來仍是相當棒的，如果Boras 有能讓球隊打聽Chris Davis
的能力，他當然能夠靠著投手自責分率的基礎上來好好兜售陳，投手自責分率在市場上還
是有一定的指標意義，這可以參考James Shields和Alfredo Simon的合約，在我看到了至
高9000萬可能性的同時，我還是預測陳會得到五年8000萬的合約。

--
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推 s4340392: 推
推 Lacus0827: 平均一年16~18M 合理
推 EvanGattis: 推推
※ 編輯: Ikebe3120 (59.126.7.19), 12/05/2015 12:23:57
推 l5i9hbba: 推 私心巨人
推 aborwang: 推
推 Timekeeper: 失去Z魔神去道奇的可能性變大了
推 dragon50119: 殷仔去巨人吧！
推 JessicaA1ba: 2016 巨人 Chen WS champ~~
推 mike5312: 殷仔不要去躲人啦 巨人歡迎你
推 redzero: 只簽1隻
推 r90009: 巨人好 雙數年拿個戒指
推 phoenix286: 紅雀/巨人都好
→ paso: 到期要拿岩熊
推 kunger810: 全力挺去巨人
推 Werth: 薪資上漲 陳15M起跳了  看看能不能去牛棚好一點的強隊
推 Steven1368: 巨人!!!
推 kao14: 推 平均年薪16M~18M蠻合理的推論
推 bkm1: 我真的覺得看到前幾張合約 陳拿到90+M/5y 也不用太意外
推 xw668:
推 masao0103: 樓上別質疑 U大溼的上限15M~
→ LucasDuda: 嘖...風向看來不允許推14、15M了～
推 stja: 如果boras只能簽到合理價的話 就遜掉了
推 yypan99: 沒有三十三…嗯
推 thid5335: CHEN去躲人 台霉從春訓開始瘋狂討論和柳賢振的輪值順序
推 kusami: 17M也才半個ZG(挖鼻
推 jeremykobe: 巨屌不錯
推 o0991758566: 一年16M  差不多
推 chopinlee: 紅鳥失去Lackey所以得到28順位選秀，選陳還可接受
推 linisthebest: 道奇一次收集岩熊殷仔前田吧
推 nasa709: 紅雀/巨人  2選1謝謝
推 plok011: 2004年大學畢業今年30歲應該有點問題
推 j12289368800: 去道奇或巨人吧~~~
推 amorviva: 陳好像保留學籍 台體才大一就去日職了 球季後有空才回台
→ amorviva: 修學分
→ amorviva: 說錯 是國體才對
推 amorviva: 原文用drop out是退學吧XD
推 hakk: 陳的速球在左投先發排第七耶，算很快了
※ 編輯: Ikebe3120 (180.217.236.232), 12/05/2015 16:58:58
推 newest: 去巨人吧  明年偶數年耶
→ Ikebe3120: 感謝翻譯修正提醒
推 waiting0801: 推
推 saiulbb: 推推
推 mike5312: 推啦
推 coffee1205: 推，去巨人吧
推 megalink: 西岸先發都台灣時間早上10點，球迷不用早起又可看到吃
→ megalink: 午飯，舒服
推 O10lOl01O: 一點都不舒服 衝到我上班時間XDD
推 chon34: 巨人的球場是不是比較不容易被打全壘打?
推 tonylovetw: 巨人球場 比較不好打全壘打..
推 tony123839: 哪裡舒服阿= = 早上7點還可以看一下
→ tony123839: 早上10點是要看個屁......
推 megalink: 巨人球場臨海邊很漂亮，中右外野有一角落深達421英呎，
→ megalink: 夠大吧，記得棒子爺破單季hr記錄的73轟就是打到那裡
→ megalink: 期待他去巨人囉
推 wolf0531: 不錯阿 期待他加盟巨人
推 Capital235: 所以陳偉殷去國聯機率大增囉 好久沒真正看到國聯比賽
→ Capital235: 了 民視都轉播美聯居多
推 MrNeverDie: 10點的話，午餐看個，都接近換牛棚接手了吧XDD
推 t55020255: 來天使吧 看神鱒+普人 時間又舒服~~~
推 carey1119: 小熊2016拿冠軍！
推 su43123: 去巨人可能會被酸酸入侵還是算了
推 lkk61432: 陳會想要練打擊嗎？
推 c871111116: 討論想不想打擊這點其實沒啥意義XD
→ c871111116: Scherzer也說過討厭打擊XDD
推 coronach: 整體來說巨人機率真的滿高的，也很適合
推 s205984663: 去巨人!
推 skan: 說實在巨人會養但不會照顧投手..去紅鳥好了
推 wahaha5678: 合理推
推 marskam723: 巨人
推 smad: Boras的球員又是左投 我認為20M一年跑不掉
推 noddle: 推
推 pyfputa: 回來推這一篇，有中肯有準！
推 tnl0716: 這篇合理