[外電]名人堂召換:10位現役球員往古柏鎮之路(上)

[a09041027 (CQ)]

By Joe Trezza MLB.com @JoeTrezz
Dec. 26th, 2017


The 2018 National Baseball Hall of Fame class will be announced on Jan. 24,
and with it, a new group of legends will be revealed.

2018年的名人堂將會於1月24日公布,


That makes now as good a time as any to ask a speculative question: Which
current big leaguers might join them one day in Cooperstown? We're not
talking about the easy ones:Ichiro Suzuki Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, the few
into shoo-ins. We're talking about the borderline candidates, the stars who
may well be on their way, but aren't there yet.


這讓現在是個非常好的時機提出一個假設性問題:哪位現役大聯盟選手未來有可能加入古
柏鎮行列?我們不是在討論能輕輕鬆鬆進名人堂的,例如:鈴木一朗,Albert Pujols,
Miguel Cabrera,或是其他進名人堂十拿九穩的超級球星.這邊要討論的是在候選人邊緣的
球星,他們可能已經在前往名人堂的路上,但是還沒到達那個高度



We ran a similar exercise last winter, but this year's version comes with a
twist. Which borderline Hall of Famers actually improved their chances during
the 2017 season? Whose Cooperstown resume looks better than it did a year
ago? These 10 names should ring a bell. (Note: The historical comps below are
informed by similarity scores devised by Bill James and, in this case, are
the retired player who plays the same position and is the most statistically
similar through their current age.)



去年也做過相似的議題,但是今年版本有點改變.哪個在名人堂邊緣的球員在2017年提升了
進入名人堂的機會?哪位球星的履歷看起來比去年還要好?這10個名字喚起了你的印象(備
註:下方的歷史球星比較是根據Bill James所設計出的相似分數.在這個情況下,是指那些
跟現役球員同位置且在數據上最相似的退休球員)


1.Zack Greinke, RHP, age 34
Career: 172-107, 3.40 ERA, 56.9 bWAR
2017: 17-7, 3.20 ERA, 6 bWAR
Historical comp: Mike Mussina

When we explored the topic of active, borderline Hall of Fame candidates last
winter, I wrote of Greinke: "He'll need to finish his career with more
seasons akin to his 2011-15 stretch than his lackluster first season in
Arizona if he wants to bolster his dark horse candidacy for Cooperstown."



That's exactly what he did in 2017. In his second year with the D-backs,
Greinke shaved more than a run off his 2016 ERA, eclipsed the 200-inning
mark, made another All-Star team, won another Gold Glove and placed fourth in
the NL Cy Young Award voting. In the process, he entrenched his place in any
conversation about the defining pitchers of his era.



去年冬天當提到現役在名人堂人選邊緣球星的主題時,我寫下Greinke:"他需要持續投出類
似他2011-15,而不是他在亞利桑那那種乏善可陳的第一個球季,如果他想要加強他以黑馬
之姿候選人進軍古柏鎮的機會
而這就是他在2017年所做到的.他在響尾蛇的第二個球季,他不只擺脫了2016低迷的防禦率
,200局的投球,再次入選明星隊,贏得一個金手套,甚至在賽揚票選中名列第四名.他用了他
的防禦率表現,鞏固了他的位置



2.Max Scherzer, RHP, age 33
Career: 141-75, 3.30 ERA, 45.6 bWAR
2017: 16-6, 2.51 ERA, 7.6 bWAR
Historical comp: Johan Santana

Scherzer's third Cy Young Award puts him in rare company. Ten pitchers in
history have won as many, and of them, only Roger Clemens and Clayton Kershaw
aren't enshrined in Cooperstown (yet).

With the demise of the 300-game winner, the criteria for Cooperstown-worthy
starting pitchers has shifted in recent years, and will only continue to do
so. By the time Scherzer's name appears on the ballot, he'll likely be judged
on the strengths of his dominant peak -- now entering its seventh season.



Scherzer 第三座的賽揚獎,讓他很難跟其他人做比較.10位歷史上曾經贏得3座賽揚獎的投
手,就只有Roger Clemens和 Clayton Kershaw還沒在古柏鎮刻上他們的名字

當300勝投手已消逝於現今中,進入名人堂的標準在近年有了新的變化,而且只可能持續
朝這方向前進,當Scherzer的名字出現在選票中時,大家最有可能會評斷他在巔峰時最具主
宰力的表現--現在準備進入他的第七個極具主宰力的球季



3.Craig Kimbrel, RHP, age 29
Career: 1.80 ERA, 291 saves, 14.8 K/9, 18 bWAR
2017: 1.43 ERA, 35 saves, 16.4 K/9, 3.6 bWAR
Historical comp: Jonathan Papelbon

Relievers are still rare in Cooperstown, and debates over their value in
modern, highly specialized roles rage on. They are the main reason Trevor
Hoffman, the National League's all-time saves leader, isn't in yet. If
Hoffman is enshrined this year, he'll be the first full-time reliever
selected since Goose Gossage in 2008.

Specialized or not, few have been better than Kimbrel since he debuted in
2010, and even fewer dominated the way he did in 2017. Kimbrel's fate will
ultimately be decided by the collective philosophy of the voting pool, but at
the very least, his exceptional '17 campaign may be what catapults him into
the conversation.



現在的名人堂中很少救援投手,現在大家都在爭論他們的價值,特別是在於他們的腳色
吵得是最兇.這也是為什麼Trevor Hoffman,國家聯盟最多救援點的投手,還沒進入名人堂
的原因,如果今年Hoffman被選入名人堂,他將會是2008年後繼Gosse Gossage第一個全職
的後援投手.

不管是不是專門的後援投手,沒有幾個投得比在2010初登板的Kimbrel還要好,也沒有幾個
在聯盟中主宰力跟他在2017的主宰力一樣好.Kimberl最終的命運,將會由投票者的共同理
念所決定,不過至少他17年傑出的表現,會讓他一躍成為話題人物


4.Yadier Molina, C, age 35
Career: .284/.336/.403, 126 homers, 35.4 bWAR, 8 Gold Glove Awards
2017: .273/.312/.439, 18 homers, 2 bWAR
Historical comp: Bill Freehan

Molina's case for Cooperstown will be based on his defense, and it will come
with its fair share of detractors. Molina's eight Gold Glove Awards are the
third most of any catcher (behind Ivan Rodriguez and Johnny Bench), but his
offensive numbers won't be enough to warrant consideration on their own.
Glove-first stars are rare, but not unheard of, in the Hall of Fame.

Which is why it stands to reason that any additional offense Molina produces
from here on would only boost his candidacy. On that front, 2017 offers a
conflicted outlook. On the one hand, Molina's batting average and on-base
percentage were lower than his career marks. On the other, he put up his
second-best single-season home run total and had a career-high 82 RBIs.




Molina的案例會以他的防守來作為基礎,這將會讓他的價值被貶低.Molina拿過八個金手套
是史上第三多的,僅次於Ivan Rodriguez 和 Johnny Bench.但是單就他的攻擊表現,
沒辦法保證他進入考慮名單裡.防守第一的明星很少,但也不是從來沒有進入名人堂過

而這也是為什麼,任何Molina在攻擊方面的產出將會使他成為更有競爭力的候選者.他
的2017年球季,打出了非常矛盾的前景,一方面Molina的打擊率以及上壘率都低於他的
生涯成績但是另一方面他擊出了他生涯單季第二多的全壘打數,還有生涯新高的82分打點




5.Buster Posey, C, age 30
Career: .308/.376/.474, 128 homers, 37.5 bWAR
2017: .320/.400/.462, 12 homers, 4 bWAR
Historical comp: Gabby Hartnett

The Giants were not very good in 2017, but their catcher, as usual, was.
Quietly, Posey enjoyed perhaps his best offensive season since his NL
MVP-capturing 2012 campaign. After nine seasons, Posey's 135 career OPS+
ranks second all-time among catchers, behind only Mike Piazza.

That alone says a lot about his Hall of Fame chances, though they might
ultimately hinge on how long Posey remains behind the dish full-time. Posey
made a quarter of his starts away from catcher last season, more than double
the year before. The more time he spends at first base, the more glaring
Posey's lack of power will look to voters.


巨人隊在2017表現得不怎麼樣,但是他們的捕手,一如往常,表現得很傑出.默默低,自從他
拿到2012年MVP,Posey在攻擊方面打出了可能是他最好的球季.生涯的九個球季,Posey打出
了生涯135OPS+的成績,在歷史上僅次於Mike Piazza

光這項就足以證明他進入名人堂的機會,雖然最終仍會取決於Posey在擔任全職捕手的職業
生涯有多長.這個球季Posey沒擔任先發捕手的場次是他先發場次的四分之一,比上個球季
多出兩倍多.當他花越多的時間在擔任一壘手,大家就會越注意到他打擊缺乏power


新聞網址:
https://goo.gl/8SQMZD



*WAR分為fWAR & bWAR
fWAR是Fangraph所計算的,主要是建立在投手的技術上,屏除防守的考量
bWAR則是Baseball reference所計算的,除了會比較考慮到守備上外,還有會因為球場而做
調整



後五個下集待續









--
※ 發信站: 批踢踢實業坊(ptt.cc), 來自: 118.166.57.80
※ 文章網址: https://www.ptt.cc/bbs/MLB/M.1514382105.A.42D.html
推 Roshiel: 莫小弟的矛盾不就是彈球造成的嗎?
推 baitodd: 推！
→ smove: 一朗
推 Hotsheep: Posey跟莫小弟真的只有邊緣的價值嗎
推 tw52024: 主要是古柏鎮沒這麼在意冠軍而是累積數據吧
推 starxls: 莫小弟沒進會很可惜
推 mightymouse: 摸小弟的累積數據以名人堂標準真的弱了一點，Posey則
→ mightymouse: 是還有時間讓數字更好看
推 kiske011: 薛蛇鐵進吧
推 x37856428: Posey感覺會進吧
推 bbwwman: Piazza少打a
推 Gwendaline: 一朗征戰多年 結果還是會有人打錯名字
※ 編輯: a09041027 (118.166.57.80), 12/27/2017 22:37:20
→ a09041027: 抱歉有做修改了  如果翻譯有誤再麻煩各位提出
→ borriss: 今年剛好有 8/10/11個金手套的人第一年票選
推 wen8278: 薛蛇不應該在bolderline名單吧
→ wen8278: *borderline
推 earnformoney: 推 期待下集
→ st6012: 朗這個字還是能打錯
推 OoyaoO: 薛蛇穩進吧 巔峰主宰力太強了
推 AZBTPATONY: 薛蛇 國聯唯一能跟書僮競爭的巨投 穩進的
推 kingtseng: 推
推 RobbieRay: 薛蛇囂張的在古柏鎮走動（X
推 JinFa22: MLB的名人堂真的超難, NBA相對來說容易太多了
※ 編輯: a09041027 (118.166.57.80), 12/27/2017 23:33:13
推 jonasnow: 推一個，然後金伯那一段有名字拼錯了喔
推 Mcnair: 捕手只靠防守成績應該很難進名人堂，主要還是著重打擊
推 KKyosuke: Kimbrel那段完全翻錯了
推 KKyosuke: 最後那段是說自從2010金寶上大聯盟以來  沒幾個人表現的
→ KKyosuke: 比他好  更沒多少人能繳出像他17年球季那麼宰制性的成績
推 ni60705: 感謝翻譯，也推樓上
推 KyleSeager: 下一篇一定有Cano！！
推 SamFuld: 看完原文沒有Cano , 不過我想Cano不在邊緣那邊 應該穩進
→ SamFuld: 34歲就有2376H的二壘手，而且合約還有好幾年..
→ SamFuld: 他的生涯安打數搞不好會比Jeter還多
→ SamFuld: 就是看能不能保持健康跟身手不要下滑太多了
推 oralboralb: 剩下五位應該有Votto
→ oralboralb: 感覺都挑一些很強但累積數據還不夠的明星
推 JoeMauer7: 好想進QQ
※ 編輯: a09041027 (118.166.57.80), 12/28/2017 00:47:24
→ a09041027: 感謝K大 已經改了
推 EE1: Justin Verlander 應該在下一頁
推 echo50034: 推
推 scheiss: 囂張的在古柏鎮走來走去（
→ spreesell6: V中年、沙胖應該會有吧
→ zach27: 下一頁感覺會有龍哥 Pedroia Votto
推 oncee: Scherzer如果能進，可能會是第一個沒有200勝的先發投手吧？
推 leegogo: 經過今年季後賽 Verlander穩進了
→ leegogo: 薛蛇拿了三個賽揚 也沒什麼問題了
→ zach27: 神之左手Koufax生涯165勝
推 lkk61432: Scherzer的20K也值得一提吧
→ soltre: 是召"喚"不是召換...  雖然不是大問題但還是提一下
推 co66550: 薛蛇以他的宰制力還會在邊緣的原因可能是因為比較晚開竅
→ co66550: 吧年紀也大了
→ co66550: 但這樣持續下去進去應該是沒什麼問題
推 mikeneko: 七座賽揚都進不了名人堂了，三座算什麼
推 oralboralb: Scherzer越老越強的  年紀不是問題啦  反觀成名早的
→ oralboralb: King Kershaw CC這種20歲就投的衰退問題可能比較嚴重
推 tsaumond: Votto感覺應該在十拿九穩那一區吧
推 CrazyShark: 看著標題還以為會有king
推 abibas: 4000安也進阿, 私德缺陷太嚴重了
推 jackys313: 七座賽揚進不了那位不是因為成績進不了
推 ChrisDavis: 最多賽揚，最多全壘打，最多安打，都不在名人堂
推 whj0530: XD 聖人唐
推 OneCell: 希望都進
推 timmyen: 可是薛蛇的comparison第一年就要掰了…XD
推 oralboralb: MLB就算巔峰很強沒有累積一定數據沒什麼十拿九穩這種
→ oralboralb: 事啦  Scherzer跟Votto算是投打聯盟頂級的代表人物吧
推 JeffLocke: 最多安打 沒進自找的
→ sdiaa: CC笑臉人有在顧+體格厚實 可以比國王撐久一點
推 Jokering5566: 沒一個有機會的
推 co66550: 靠巔峰就能進的我的理解是Koufax和神右那種程度
推 AHEAD099: 現階段看來龍哥要進的機率幾乎是0吧
推 chenghow: king感覺會因為累積數據不夠無法進
→ chenghow: 再來介紹五個應該有書僮朗神普神吧
→ chenghow: 前面我自己沒看到還提朗神普神  掌嘴~~
推 nuggets0916: 雪蛇囂張的繞著古博鎮走動
→ borriss: 1年進的 Koufax跟Puckett 都只打12季
→ jackys313: Koufax手臂都燒光了沒辦法 希望書僮別步上後塵
推 maxspeed150: 龍哥巔峰不夠巔峰 累積也不夠好 現在看沒啥機會
→ maxspeed150: 不過想想 7,8年前我們也是這樣看吹哥
推 oralboralb: 現在Beltre穩到應該已經是史上前5的三壘手了吧
→ oralboralb: 比Chipper Jones還前面
推 sarserror: 我覺得Molina絕對不行 要是他可以很多人沒理由不行
推 weed222: 水兵的小鬼, 感覺很難進耶.....
推 mirrorlee: Verlander光靠單季MVP+賽揚就該進了
→ s90366770607: 名人堂又不是只看單季成績XDDD
推 whalelover: 突然發現這篇沒有連結 原PO可能要趕快補個XD
→ a09041027: 感謝提醒哈哈
※ 編輯: a09041027 (118.166.57.80), 12/28/2017 18:11:52
推 ultratimes: Halladay比Verlander更容易出現在這個名單吧
→ ultratimes: 累積數據 V中大概再一季就追上了 三振則是早就超過
推 mouz: 中文翻譯的Goose拼錯了
推 kiuo: 說cano穩進所以不在名單,但V中也是穩進,怎麼就有他
→ kiuo: 推錯篇
推 maxspeed150: 為什麼喔 因為作者覺得Cano是穩進而V中不是啊
→ borriss: V中不是下一篇有講 穩進的話就不用那麼多附加了
推 philxiao: 和推文中想到同事情:幾年前版上看Beltre也是HOF沒啥機會
→ philxiao: 那些討論HOF文章都還在板上…結果Beltre老來俏持續巔峰!
推 ntusimmon: HOFFMAN都搞到這樣了 其他 ...